AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#47Away
Maryland
0-0 · AVR 56.2
10p
#1Home
Ohio State
0-0 · AVR 85.7
40p
MD 2%98% OSU
Spread
OSU -29.7
Total
50
Moneyline
MD—OSU—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MD advantageevenOSU advantage →
MD throw
MD protection #69
even
MD run
OSU +24
OSU throw
OSU +35
OSU run
OSU +32

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when OSU throws
Jeremiah Smith
vs
Dontay Joyner
X · OSU
CB1 · MD
96.0
74.9
OSU +21
off the edge· hunting Washington
Tellek Lockette
vs
Kenyatta Jackson Jr.
LT · MD
EDGE · OSU
67.2
95.4
OSU +28
off the edge· hunting Sayin
Austin Siereveld
vs
Zahir Mathis
LT · OSU
EDGE · MD
81.7
76.3
OSU +5
when OSU runs
Bo Jackson
vs
Daniel Wingate
RB · OSU
MLB · MD
84.6
68.0
OSU +17
when MD runs
DeJuan Williams
vs
Christian Alliegro
RB · MD
MLB · OSU
69.0
79.4
OSU +10
when MD throws
Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
vs
Jermaine Mathews Jr.
X · MD
CB1 · OSU
72.8
69.4
MD +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Maryland
QBMalik Washington
77.625/308
DBDontay Joyner
74.9155/1427
WRNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
72.842/777
RBDeJuan Williams
69.058/514
LBDaniel Wingate
68.0177/878
DBJamare Glasker
68.0280/1427

also out — Z. Mathis (LB)

Ohio State
WRJeremiah Smith
96.01/777
QBJulian Sayin
86.67/308
RBBo Jackson
84.68/514
LBChristian Alliegro
79.461/878
CBJermaine Mathews Jr.
69.4253/1427
LBPayton Pierce
67.8180/878

also out — Legend Bey (RB), Ohio State OL

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Maryland
opponent
Ohio State
home-1.1
Illinois#35
+26.1home
away-5.7
Nebraska#41
+21.5away
away-19.3
USC#10
+7.8away

Projected margin

80% between 12 and 47
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOSU +29.795% interval: 5.8 to 53.680% interval: 12.3 to 47.1+12+47MD wins 2%OSU wins 98%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OSU 39–11 MDOSU 35–35 MD neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOSU 39–32 MD neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOSU 42–28 MD neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOSU 46–25 MD neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOSU 49–21 MD neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOSU 53–18 MD neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOSU 56–14 MD neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOSU 60–11 MD neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOSU 63–7 MD neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOSU 32–32 MD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOSU 35–28 MD neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOSU 39–25 MD neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOSU 42–21 MD neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOSU 46–18 MD neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOSU 49–14 MD neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOSU 53–11 MD neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOSU 56–7 MD neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOSU 60–4 MD neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOSU 28–28 MD neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOSU 32–25 MD neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOSU 35–21 MD neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOSU 39–18 MD neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOSU 42–14 MD neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesOSU 46–11 MD neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesOSU 49–7 MD neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOSU 53–4 MD neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOSU 56–0 MD neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOSU 25–25 MD neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOSU 28–21 MD neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOSU 32–18 MD neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOSU 35–14 MD neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOSU 39–11 MD neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesOSU 42–7 MD neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesOSU 46–4 MD neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOSU 49–0 MD neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)OSU 21–21 MD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOSU 25–18 MD neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOSU 28–14 MD neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOSU 32–11 MD neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOSU 35–7 MD neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesOSU 39–4 MD neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOSU 42–0 MD neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OSU 18–18 MD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOSU 21–14 MD neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOSU 25–11 MD neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOSU 28–7 MD neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOSU 32–4 MD neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOSU 35–0 MD neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OSU 14–14 MD neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOSU 18–11 MD neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOSU 21–7 MD neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOSU 25–4 MD neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOSU 28–0 MD neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalPKOSU +14OSU +28OSU +42OSU +56margin →