AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#53Away
UCLA
0-0 · AVR 54.5
14p
#2Home
Oregon
0-0 · AVR 85.1
42p
UCLA 2%98% ORE
Spread
ORE -28.6
Total
56
Moneyline
UCLA—ORE—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UCLA advantageevenORE advantage →
UCLA throw
ORE +11
UCLA run
ORE linebackers #1
ORE +11
ORE throw
ORE +12
ORE run
ORE +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UCLA throws
Landon Ellis
vs
Brandon Finney Jr.
X · UCLA
CB1 · ORE
87.0
88.9
dead even
when UCLA runs
Wayne Knight
vs
Teitum Tuioti
RB · UCLA
MLB · ORE
82.7
91.9
ORE +9
off the edge· hunting Moore
Iapani Laloulu
vs
Sahir West
LT · ORE
EDGE · UCLA
79.3
93.8
UCLA +14
when ORE throws
Jeremiah McClellan
vs
Derrick Barksdale
X · ORE
CB1 · UCLA
75.6
89.4
UCLA +14
when ORE runs
Jordon Davison
vs
Drew Spinogatti
RB · ORE
MLB · UCLA
79.1
84.8
UCLA +6
off the edge· hunting Iamaleava
Hall Schmidt
vs
A'Mauri Washington
LT · UCLA
EDGE · ORE
69.2
81.6
ORE +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UCLA
DBDerrick Barksdale
89.415/1427
WRLandon Ellis
87.07/777
LBDrew Spinogatti
84.822/878
RBWayne Knight
82.715/514
LBSammy Omosigho
82.441/878
DBTao Johnson
81.872/1427
Oregon
LBTeitum Tuioti
91.97/878
LBMatayo Uiagalelei
90.610/878
DBBrandon Finney Jr.
88.917/1427
TEJamari Johnson
84.51/287
DBPeyton Woodyard
81.377/1427
QBDante Moorequestionable
79.922/308

also out — Surprise Player Standing, Brayden Platt (LB), J. Davison (RB), Tony Cumberland

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UCLA
opponent
Oregon
away-18.4
Michigan#13
+12.7home
home-2.5
Illinois#35
+18.6away
home-15.7
USC#10
+5.4away
home+6.8
Michigan State#65
+27.9away

Projected margin

80% between 11 and 46
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKORE +28.695% interval: 4.7 to 52.580% interval: 11.2 to 46+11+46UCLA wins 2%ORE wins 98%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ORE 42–14 UCLAORE 39–39 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORE 42–35 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORE 46–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORE 49–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesORE 53–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesORE 56–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORE 60–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesORE 63–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesORE 67–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 35–35 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 39–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesORE 42–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORE 46–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORE 49–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORE 53–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesORE 56–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORE 60–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORE 63–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORE 32–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORE 35–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORE 39–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesORE 42–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORE 46–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesORE 49–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesORE 53–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesORE 56–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesORE 60–4 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesORE 28–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORE 32–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesORE 35–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORE 39–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesORE 42–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesORE 46–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesORE 49–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesORE 53–4 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesORE 56–0 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesORE 25–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORE 28–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORE 32–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesORE 35–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORE 39–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesORE 42–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesORE 46–4 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesORE 49–0 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ORE 21–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 25–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesORE 28–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORE 32–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesORE 35–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORE 39–4 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesORE 42–0 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ORE 18–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORE 21–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORE 25–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORE 28–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesORE 32–4 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesORE 35–0 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPKORE +14ORE +28ORE +42ORE +56margin →