AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 1:00 AM
#22Away
Iowa
0-0 · AVR 67.0
23p
#15Home
Washington
0-0 · AVR 72.3
30p
IOWA 32%68% WASH
Spread
WASH -6.5
Total
53
Moneyline
IOWA+210WASH-210
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← IOWA advantageevenWASH advantage →
IOWA throw
IOWA protection #5WASH pass rush #72
WASH +39
IOWA run
IOWA +24
WASH throw
IOWA pass rush #76
WASH +11
WASH run
WASH +19

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when WASH throws
Dezmen Roebuck
vs
Zach Lutmer
X · WASH
CB1 · IOWA
86.2
91.9
IOWA +6
off the edge· hunting Hecklinski
Jack Dotzler
vs
Darin Conley
LT · IOWA
EDGE · WASH
91.6
74.1
IOWA +18
when IOWA runs
Kamari Moulton
vs
Xe'ree Alexander
RB · IOWA
MLB · WASH
74.1
81.2
WASH +7
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Elishah Jackett
vs
Luke Gaffney
LT · WASH
EDGE · IOWA
82.4
68.5
WASH +14
over the middle
DJ Vonnahme
vs
Rylon Dillard-Allen
TE · IOWA
FS · WASH
72.6
71.4
dead even
over the middle
Decker DeGraaf
vs
Alex Mota
TE · WASH
FS · IOWA
71.5
65.4
WASH +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Iowa
DBZach Lutmer
91.96/1427
DBTyler Browndoubtful
84.254/1427
DBDeshaun Lee
77.2122/1427
RBKamari Moulton
74.138/514
TEDJ Vonnahme
72.68/287
LBJayden Montgomery
62.0253/878
Washington
WRDezmen Roebuck
86.212/777
QBDemond Williams Jr.
83.016/308
CBEmmanuel Karnley
82.467/1427
LBXe'ree Alexanderprobable
81.247/878
SRahshawn Clark
80.986/1427
SAlex McLaughlin
79.298/1427

also out — Washington Football Standing, Jordan Washington, Washington Huskies Running Back (RB), Former Washington football star, Ashton Jeanty (RB)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Iowa
opponent
Washington
away+8.1
Minnesota#54
+17.1home
home+8.8
Nebraska#41
+7.8away
home+17.3
Purdue#69
+16.3away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWASH +6.595% interval: -17.4 to 30.480% interval: -10.9 to 23.9-11+24IOWA wins 32%WASH wins 68%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WASH 32–25 IOWAWASH 28–49 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWASH 32–46 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWASH 35–42 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWASH 39–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWASH 42–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWASH 46–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWASH 49–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWASH 53–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWASH 56–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWASH 25–46 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWASH 28–42 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWASH 32–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWASH 35–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWASH 39–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWASH 42–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWASH 46–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWASH 49–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWASH 53–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWASH 21–42 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 25–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWASH 28–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWASH 32–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWASH 35–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWASH 39–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWASH 42–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWASH 46–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWASH 49–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 18–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWASH 21–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWASH 25–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWASH 28–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWASH 32–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWASH 35–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWASH 39–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWASH 42–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWASH 46–11 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 14–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWASH 18–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWASH 21–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWASH 25–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWASH 28–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWASH 32–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWASH 35–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWASH 39–11 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWASH 42–7 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 11–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 14–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWASH 18–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWASH 21–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWASH 25–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWASH 28–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWASH 32–11 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWASH 35–7 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWASH 39–4 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWASH 7–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWASH 11–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWASH 14–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWASH 18–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWASH 21–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWASH 25–11 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWASH 28–7 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWASH 32–4 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWASH 35–0 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalIOWA +21IOWA +7WASH +7WASH +21WASH +35margin →