AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#1Away
Ohio State
0-0 · AVR 85.7
31p
#7Home
Indiana
0-0 · AVR 76.7
22p
OSU 73%27% IU
Spread
OSU -8.9
Total
53
Moneyline
OSU-273IU+273
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OSU advantageevenIU advantage →
OSU throw
OSU +4
OSU run
IU +8
IU throw
IU +16
IU run
IU +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hoover
Carter Smith
vs
Kenyatta Jackson Jr.
LT · IU
EDGE · OSU
94.5
95.4
dead even
when OSU throws
Jeremiah Smith
vs
Amare Ferrell
X · OSU
CB1 · IU
96.0
86.8
OSU +9
when OSU runs
Bo Jackson
vs
Rolijah Hardy
RB · OSU
MLB · IU
84.6
93.9
IU +9
off the edge· hunting Sayin
Austin Siereveld
vs
Stephen Daley
LT · OSU
EDGE · IU
81.7
96.6
IU +15
when IU runs
Turbo Richard
vs
Christian Alliegro
RB · IU
MLB · OSU
77.5
79.4
dead even
when IU throws
Shazz Preston
vs
Jermaine Mathews Jr.
X · IU
CB1 · OSU
78.0
69.4
IU +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ohio State
WRJeremiah Smith
96.01/777
QBJulian Sayin
86.67/308
RBBo Jackson
84.68/514
LBChristian Alliegro
79.461/878
CBJermaine Mathews Jr.
69.4253/1427
LBPayton Pierce
67.8180/878

also out — Legend Bey (RB), Ohio State OL

Indiana
LBRolijah Hardy
93.91/878
LBIsaiah Jonesprobable
93.53/878
DBAmare Ferrell
86.831/1427
DBJamari Sharpe
85.736/1427
QBJosh Hoover
80.220/308
WRShazz Preston
78.027/777

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Ohio State
opponent
Indiana
home+15.2
Michigan#13
-1.2away
away+21.5
Nebraska#41
+10.1away
home+25.4
Northwestern#37
+14.0home
away+7.8
USC#10
+1.5home

Projected margin

80% between -26 and 9
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOSU +8.995% interval: -32.8 to 1580% interval: -26.3 to 8.5-26+9OSU wins 73%IU wins 27%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OSU 32–25 IUIU 21–56 OSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 25–53 OSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIU 28–49 OSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIU 32–46 OSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIU 35–42 OSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIU 39–39 OSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesIU 42–35 OSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesIU 46–32 OSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIU 49–28 OSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesIU 18–53 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIU 21–49 OSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesIU 25–46 OSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIU 28–42 OSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIU 32–39 OSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesIU 35–35 OSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIU 39–32 OSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIU 42–28 OSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIU 46–25 OSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIU 14–49 OSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIU 18–46 OSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIU 21–42 OSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIU 25–39 OSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesIU 28–35 OSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesIU 32–32 OSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesIU 35–28 OSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIU 39–25 OSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIU 42–21 OSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 11–46 OSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIU 14–42 OSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIU 18–39 OSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIU 21–35 OSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesIU 25–32 OSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIU 28–28 OSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIU 32–25 OSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIU 35–21 OSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIU 39–18 OSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 7–42 OSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIU 11–39 OSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIU 14–35 OSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIU 18–32 OSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesIU 21–28 OSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIU 25–25 OSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIU 28–21 OSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIU 32–18 OSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIU 35–14 OSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 4–39 OSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIU 7–35 OSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIU 11–32 OSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIU 14–28 OSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIU 18–25 OSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesIU 21–21 OSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesIU 25–18 OSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIU 28–14 OSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIU 32–11 OSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 0–35 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIU 4–32 OSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesIU 7–28 OSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIU 11–25 OSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIU 14–21 OSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesIU 18–18 OSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIU 21–14 OSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIU 25–11 OSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIU 28–7 OSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalOSU +35OSU +21OSU +7IU +7IU +21margin →