AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#41Away
Nebraska
0-0 · AVR 58.2
17p
#2Home
Oregon
0-0 · AVR 85.1
41p
NEB 5%95% ORE
Spread
ORE -24.0
Total
57
Moneyline
NEB+1933ORE-1933
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NEB advantageevenORE advantage →
NEB throw
even
NEB run
NEB line #15NEB backs #103
ORE +14
ORE throw
ORE +17
ORE run
ORE +25

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ORE runs
Jordon Davison
vs
Owen Chambliss
RB · ORE
MLB · NEB
79.1
83.3
NEB +4
when ORE throws
Jeremiah McClellan
vs
Dwayne McDougle III
X · ORE
CB1 · NEB
75.6
84.3
NEB +9
when NEB throws
Nyziah Hunter
vs
Brandon Finney Jr.
X · NEB
CB1 · ORE
70.0
88.9
ORE +19
off the edge· hunting Colandrea
Elijah Pritchett
vs
A'Mauri Washington
LT · NEB
EDGE · ORE
76.6
81.6
ORE +5
off the edge· hunting Moore
Iapani Laloulu
vs
Jahsear Whittington
LT · ORE
EDGE · NEB
79.3
73.3
ORE +6
over the middle
Jamari Johnson
vs
Victor Evans III
TE · ORE
FS · NEB
84.5
66.1
ORE +18

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Nebraska
SDwayne McDougle III
84.353/1427
LBOwen Chambliss
83.331/878
QBAnthony Colandrea
73.930/308
CBDonovan Jones
70.6225/1427
WRNyziah Hunter
70.056/777
CBAndrew Marshall
69.4254/1427

also out — Kahmir Prescott (S)

Oregon
LBTeitum Tuioti
91.97/878
LBMatayo Uiagalelei
90.610/878
DBBrandon Finney Jr.
88.917/1427
TEJamari Johnson
84.51/287
DBPeyton Woodyard
81.377/1427
QBDante Moorequestionable
79.922/308

also out — Surprise Player Standing, Brayden Platt (LB), J. Davison (RB), Tony Cumberland

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Nebraska
opponent
Oregon
home-7.8
Washington#15
+13.7home
away-2.9
Illinois#35
+18.6away
away+6.5
Michigan State#65
+27.9away
home-21.5
Ohio State#1
-5.0away

Projected margin

80% between 7 and 41
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKORE +24.095% interval: 0.1 to 47.980% interval: 6.6 to 41.4+7+41NEB wins 5%ORE wins 95%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ORE 39–18 NEBORE 35–42 NEB neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesORE 39–39 NEB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesORE 42–35 NEB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesORE 46–32 NEB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORE 49–28 NEB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesORE 53–25 NEB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesORE 56–21 NEB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORE 60–18 NEB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORE 63–14 NEB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORE 32–39 NEB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORE 35–35 NEB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORE 39–32 NEB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesORE 42–28 NEB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesORE 46–25 NEB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORE 49–21 NEB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesORE 53–18 NEB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesORE 56–14 NEB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORE 60–11 NEB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORE 28–35 NEB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 32–32 NEB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesORE 35–28 NEB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesORE 39–25 NEB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesORE 42–21 NEB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesORE 46–18 NEB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesORE 49–14 NEB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORE 53–11 NEB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesORE 56–7 NEB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORE 25–32 NEB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORE 28–28 NEB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesORE 32–25 NEB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesORE 35–21 NEB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesORE 39–18 NEB neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesORE 42–14 NEB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesORE 46–11 NEB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesORE 49–7 NEB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesORE 53–4 NEB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORE 21–28 NEB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORE 25–25 NEB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORE 28–21 NEB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesORE 32–18 NEB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesORE 35–14 NEB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesORE 39–11 NEB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesORE 42–7 NEB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORE 46–4 NEB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesORE 49–0 NEB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORE 18–25 NEB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORE 21–21 NEB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORE 25–18 NEB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORE 28–14 NEB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesORE 32–11 NEB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesORE 35–7 NEB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesORE 39–4 NEB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORE 42–0 NEB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ORE 14–21 NEB neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesORE 18–18 NEB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORE 21–14 NEB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORE 25–11 NEB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesORE 28–7 NEB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORE 32–4 NEB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesORE 35–0 NEB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalNEB +7ORE +7ORE +21ORE +35ORE +49margin →