AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#58Away
Wisconsin
0-0 · AVR 51.9
23p
#53Home
UCLA
0-0 · AVR 54.5
27p
WIS 38%62% UCLA
Spread
UCLA -4.5
Total
50
Moneyline
WIS+162UCLA-162
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WIS advantageevenUCLA advantage →
WIS throw
WIS QB #24WIS WR #129
UCLA +28
WIS run
WIS line #100WIS backs #47
UCLA +32
UCLA throw
UCLA +13
UCLA run
WIS +5

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UCLA throws
Landon Ellis
vs
Javan Robinson
X · UCLA
CB1 · WIS
87.0
82.8
UCLA +4
when UCLA runs
Wayne Knight
vs
Mason Posa
RB · UCLA
MLB · WIS
82.7
79.6
UCLA +3
when WIS runs
Abu Sama III
vs
Drew Spinogatti
RB · WIS
MLB · UCLA
69.7
84.8
UCLA +15
off the edge· hunting Iamaleava
Hall Schmidt
vs
Junior Poyser
LT · UCLA
EDGE · WIS
69.2
79.0
WIS +10
when WIS throws
Shamar Rigby
vs
Derrick Barksdale
X · WIS
CB1 · UCLA
44.2
89.4
UCLA +45
off the edge· hunting Joseph
Austin Kawecki
vs
Sahir West
LT · WIS
EDGE · UCLA
31.5
93.8
UCLA +62

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Wisconsin
CBJavan Robinson
82.864/1427
SMarvin Burks Jr.
82.269/1427
LBMason Posa
79.659/878
QBColton Joseph
78.524/308
LBSebastian Cheeks
74.7108/878
RBAbu Sama III
69.754/514
UCLA
DBDerrick Barksdale
89.415/1427
WRLandon Ellis
87.07/777
LBDrew Spinogatti
84.822/878
RBWayne Knight
82.715/514
LBSammy Omosigho
82.441/878
DBTao Johnson
81.872/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Wisconsin
opponent
UCLA
away-0.6
Purdue#69
+6.4home
home+0.2
Minnesota#54
-2.8away
home-17.8
USC#10
-15.7home
away-5.9
Maryland#47
-3.9away
home+4.8
Michigan State#65
+6.8home

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUCLA +4.595% interval: -19.4 to 28.480% interval: -12.9 to 21.9-13+22WIS wins 38%UCLA wins 62%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UCLA 28–21 WISUCLA 25–46 WIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 28–42 WIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCLA 32–39 WIS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCLA 35–35 WIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCLA 39–32 WIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCLA 42–28 WIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCLA 46–25 WIS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCLA 49–21 WIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCLA 53–18 WIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCLA 21–42 WIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCLA 25–39 WIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUCLA 28–35 WIS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCLA 32–32 WIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCLA 35–28 WIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUCLA 39–25 WIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCLA 42–21 WIS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCLA 46–18 WIS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCLA 49–14 WIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCLA 18–39 WIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCLA 21–35 WIS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCLA 25–32 WIS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUCLA 28–28 WIS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCLA 32–25 WIS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUCLA 35–21 WIS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCLA 39–18 WIS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCLA 42–14 WIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCLA 46–11 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 14–35 WIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCLA 18–32 WIS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCLA 21–28 WIS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCLA 25–25 WIS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUCLA 28–21 WIS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUCLA 32–18 WIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCLA 35–14 WIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCLA 39–11 WIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCLA 42–7 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 11–32 WIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCLA 14–28 WIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCLA 18–25 WIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCLA 21–21 WIS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUCLA 25–18 WIS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCLA 28–14 WIS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCLA 32–11 WIS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCLA 35–7 WIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCLA 39–4 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 7–28 WIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCLA 11–25 WIS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCLA 14–21 WIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCLA 18–18 WIS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCLA 21–14 WIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCLA 25–11 WIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCLA 28–7 WIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCLA 32–4 WIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCLA 35–0 WIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCLA 4–25 WIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 7–21 WIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCLA 11–18 WIS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCLA 14–14 WIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCLA 18–11 WIS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCLA 21–7 WIS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCLA 25–4 WIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUCLA 28–0 WIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalWIS +21WIS +7UCLA +7UCLA +21UCLA +35margin →