AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#2Away
Oregon
0-0 · AVR 85.1
39p
#35Home
Illinois
0-0 · AVR 60.4
20p
ORE 90%10% ILL
Spread
ORE -18.6
Total
58
Moneyline
ORE-869ILL+869
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ORE advantageevenILL advantage →
ORE throw
ORE +50
ORE run
ORE +45
ILL throw
even
ILL run
ORE linebackers #1
ORE +8

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ILL runs
Ca'Lil Valentine
vs
Teitum Tuioti
RB · ILL
MLB · ORE
68.9
91.9
ORE +23
off the edge· hunting Moore
Iapani Laloulu
vs
Isaiah Thomison
LT · ORE
EDGE · ILL
79.3
78.8
dead even
when ILL throws
Collin Dixon
vs
Brandon Finney Jr.
X · ILL
CB1 · ORE
68.9
88.9
ORE +20
over the middle
Kaden Feagin
vs
Ify Obidegwu
TE · ILL
FS · ORE
72.7
73.5
dead even
off the edge· hunting Houser
TJ McMillen
vs
A'Mauri Washington
LT · ILL
EDGE · ORE
61.6
81.6
ORE +20
when ORE runs
Jordon Davison
vs
James Kreutz
RB · ORE
MLB · ILL
79.1
63.3
ORE +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oregon
LBTeitum Tuioti
91.97/878
LBMatayo Uiagalelei
90.610/878
DBBrandon Finney Jr.
88.917/1427
TEJamari Johnson
84.51/287
DBPeyton Woodyard
81.377/1427
QBDante Moorequestionable
79.922/308

also out — Surprise Player Standing, Brayden Platt (LB), J. Davison (RB), Tony Cumberland

Illinois
TEKaden Feagin
72.77/287
QBKatin Houser
71.038/308
RBCa'Lil Valentine
68.960/514
WRCollin Dixon
68.960/777
WRHudson Clement
66.773/777
LBJames Kreutz
63.3236/878

also out — T. Hollinger (TE), A. Perry (WR), B. Thurman (TE), G. Smith (TE), D. Brown (LB), J. Platt (WR)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Oregon
opponent
Illinois
home+28.6
UCLA#53
+2.5away
home+22.9
Northwestern#37
-3.2away
home+24.0
Nebraska#41
+2.9home
away-5.0
Ohio State#1
-26.1away
away+27.9
Michigan State#65
+6.8away

Projected margin

80% between -36 and -1
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKORE +18.695% interval: -42.5 to 5.380% interval: -36 to -1.2-36-1ORE wins 90%ILL wins 10%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ORE 39–18 ILLILL 14–63 ORE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesILL 18–60 ORE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesILL 21–56 ORE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesILL 25–53 ORE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesILL 28–49 ORE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesILL 32–46 ORE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesILL 35–42 ORE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesILL 39–39 ORE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesILL 42–35 ORE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesILL 11–60 ORE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesILL 14–56 ORE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesILL 18–53 ORE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesILL 21–49 ORE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesILL 25–46 ORE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesILL 28–42 ORE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesILL 32–39 ORE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesILL 35–35 ORE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesILL 39–32 ORE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesILL 7–56 ORE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesILL 11–53 ORE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesILL 14–49 ORE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesILL 18–46 ORE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesILL 21–42 ORE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesILL 25–39 ORE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesILL 28–35 ORE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesILL 32–32 ORE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesILL 35–28 ORE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesILL 4–53 ORE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesILL 7–49 ORE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesILL 11–46 ORE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesILL 14–42 ORE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesILL 18–39 ORE neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesILL 21–35 ORE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesILL 25–32 ORE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesILL 28–28 ORE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesILL 32–25 ORE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesILL 0–49 ORE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesILL 4–46 ORE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesILL 7–42 ORE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesILL 11–39 ORE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesILL 14–35 ORE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesILL 18–32 ORE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesILL 21–28 ORE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesILL 25–25 ORE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesILL 28–21 ORE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ILL 0–42 ORE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesILL 4–39 ORE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesILL 7–35 ORE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesILL 11–32 ORE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesILL 14–28 ORE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesILL 18–25 ORE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesILL 21–21 ORE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesILL 25–18 ORE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ILL 0–35 ORE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesILL 4–32 ORE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesILL 7–28 ORE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesILL 11–25 ORE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesILL 14–21 ORE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesILL 18–18 ORE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesILL 21–14 ORE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalORE +49ORE +35ORE +21ORE +7ILL +7margin →