AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#7Away
Indiana
0-0 · AVR 76.7
26p
#13Home
Michigan
0-0 · AVR 73.3
28p
IU 46%54% MICH
Spread
MICH -1.2
Total
54
Moneyline
IU+117MICH-117
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← IU advantageevenMICH advantage →
IU throw
even
IU run
MICH linebackers #95
IU +24
MICH throw
even
MICH run
IU +8

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hoover
Carter Smith
vs
John Henry Daley
LT · IU
EDGE · MICH
94.5
107.8
MICH +13
off the edge· hunting Underwood
Nathan Efobi
vs
Stephen Daley
LT · MICH
EDGE · IU
88.1
96.6
IU +8
when MICH runs
Jordan Marshall
vs
Rolijah Hardy
RB · MICH
MLB · IU
80.1
93.9
IU +14
when MICH throws
Andrew Marsh
vs
Amare Ferrell
X · MICH
CB1 · IU
84.8
86.8
dead even
when IU throws
Shazz Preston
vs
Smith Snowden
X · IU
CB1 · MICH
78.0
88.1
MICH +10
when IU runs
Turbo Richard
vs
Troy Bowles
RB · IU
MLB · MICH
77.5
65.7
IU +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Indiana
LBRolijah Hardy
93.91/878
LBIsaiah Jonesprobable
93.53/878
DBAmare Ferrell
86.831/1427
DBJamari Sharpe
85.736/1427
QBJosh Hoover
80.220/308
WRShazz Preston
78.027/777
Michigan
CBSmith Snowden
88.120/1427
WRAndrew Marsh
84.815/777
QBBryce Underwood
84.012/308
WRJJ Buchanan
82.318/777
CBJyaire Hill
80.687/1427
RBJordan Marshall
80.122/514

also out — QB (QB), Former Michigan sacks leader, RB (RB), Ace Hamilton (OL), Andrew Babalola (OL), Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan Football Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan freshman +5 more

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Indiana
opponent
Michigan
home-8.9
Ohio State#1
-15.2away
home+19.4
Minnesota#54
+13.1away
away+13.8
Rutgers#48
+12.4away

Projected margin

80% between -16 and 19
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMICH +1.295% interval: -22.7 to 25.180% interval: -16.2 to 18.6-16+19IU wins 46%MICH wins 54%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MICH 28–28 IUMICH 25–53 IU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMICH 28–49 IU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMICH 32–46 IU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 35–42 IU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMICH 39–39 IU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMICH 42–35 IU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMICH 46–32 IU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMICH 49–28 IU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMICH 53–25 IU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 21–49 IU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 25–46 IU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMICH 28–42 IU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMICH 32–39 IU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMICH 35–35 IU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMICH 39–32 IU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMICH 42–28 IU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMICH 46–25 IU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMICH 49–21 IU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 18–46 IU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 21–42 IU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMICH 25–39 IU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMICH 28–35 IU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMICH 32–32 IU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMICH 35–28 IU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMICH 39–25 IU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 42–21 IU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 46–18 IU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMICH 14–42 IU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 18–39 IU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMICH 21–35 IU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMICH 25–32 IU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMICH 28–28 IU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMICH 32–25 IU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMICH 35–21 IU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMICH 39–18 IU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMICH 42–14 IU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMICH 11–39 IU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 14–35 IU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMICH 18–32 IU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMICH 21–28 IU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMICH 25–25 IU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMICH 28–21 IU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMICH 32–18 IU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMICH 35–14 IU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMICH 39–11 IU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMICH 7–35 IU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 11–32 IU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMICH 14–28 IU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMICH 18–25 IU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMICH 21–21 IU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMICH 25–18 IU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMICH 28–14 IU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMICH 32–11 IU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 35–7 IU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 4–32 IU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMICH 7–28 IU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMICH 11–25 IU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMICH 14–21 IU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMICH 18–18 IU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMICH 21–14 IU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMICH 25–11 IU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMICH 28–7 IU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMICH 32–4 IU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalIU +28IU +14PKMICH +14MICH +28margin →