CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
IU 73.0%27.0% MICH
Projected margin
IU by 9.6
Projected total
51
80% outcome range
IU 28 to MICH 9
Win probability
IU 73.0%

Current team profiles

Indiana
Michigan

When Indiana has the ball

Passing

IU offense
Higher-ranked profile
IU offense
#2
MICH defense
#6
EPA comparison
0.65
#2
-0.11
#6
Pass EPA

Rushing

MICH defense
Higher-ranked profile
IU offense
#17
MICH defense
#12
EPA comparison
0.25
#17
-0.14
#12
Rush EPA

Drive success

MICH defense
Higher-ranked profile
IU offense
#24
MICH defense
#7
Success rates
49%
#24
33%
#7
Success rate
More metrics
0.41
#2
-0.12
#6
EPA / play
1.41
#5
1.14
#30
Explosiveness
11%
#18
17%
#49
Havoc

When Michigan has the ball

Passing

IU defense
Higher-ranked profile
IU defense
#20
MICH offense
#74
EPA comparison
0.00
#20
0.21
#74
Pass EPA

Rushing

IU defense
Higher-ranked profile
IU defense
#18
MICH offense
#93
EPA comparison
-0.10
#18
0.04
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

IU defense
Higher-ranked profile
IU defense
#4
MICH offense
#83
Success rates
32%
#4
42%
#83
Success rate
More metrics
-0.06
#16
0.09
#93
EPA / play
1.43
#132
1.15
#109
Explosiveness
19%
#24
16%
#102
Havoc

Current key players

Indiana
QBGrant Wilson
74 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
86.433/729
RBTurbo Richard
587 yds · 5 TD · 9.3 YPC
91.03/1044
WRCharlie Becker
27 rec · 477 yds · 8 TD
88.710/2069
WRNick Marsh
23 rec · 341 yds · 4 TD
82.239/2069
LBJacob Savage
6 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.6
Coverage
63.8
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
78.6108/1796
LBJeff Utzinger
8 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
82.3
Coverage
66.5
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
8
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
76.1157/1796
Availability reports · 1
  • Jamari Sharpe · DBout · 2026-09-12

    Indiana cornerbacks A.J. Harris, Jamari Sharpe out vs. Howard - ESPN

Michigan
QBTommy Carr
23 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
91.111/729
WRJJ Buchanan
24 rec · 446 yds · 4 TD
87.417/2069
LBNathaniel Staehling
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
84.3
Coverage
71.7
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
18
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
0
81.963/1796
CBJyaire Hill
25 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.0
Coverage
81.3
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
69
Passer rating allowed
73.7
Missed tackles
4
78.583/2969
LBMax Alford
5 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
82.5
Coverage
61.6
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
77.3130/1796
SJacob Oden
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.2
Coverage
71.0
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
-3
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
74.8201/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Andrew Sprague · OGout · 2026-09-26

    Sprague is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to play against the Hawkeyes on Saturday.

  • John Henry Daley · DLQues. · 2026-09-28

    Daley is dealing with a lower body injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Minnesota on Tuesday.

  • Logan Forbes · WRQues. · 2026-09-20

    Forbes is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Iowa on Saturday.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

IU
MICH
vs
Offense
86.4
#31 of 138
QB
91.1
#10 of 138
85.2
#10 of 138
RB
67.4
#132 of 138
83.7
#2 of 138
WR
72.0
#59 of 138
59.0
#127 of 138
TE
62.1
#105 of 138
73.3
#26 of 138
OL
73.6
#24 of 138
Defense
81.7
#8 of 138
DL
80.6
#14 of 138
76.9
#44 of 138
LB
78.0
#36 of 138
72.5
#65 of 138
DB
74.6
#39 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Indiana
opponent
Michigan
H+24.1
MINN#54
-6.0A
A+32.0
RUTG#89
+8.5A
H-1.9
OSU#2
-19.4A