CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 AM ET
Floyd of Rosedale
Forecast win probability
IOWA 71.1%28.9% MINN
Projected margin
IOWA by 8.8
Projected total
49
80% outcome range
IOWA 27 to MINN 10
Win probability
IOWA 71.1%

Current team profiles

Iowa
Minnesota

When Iowa has the ball

Passing

MINN defense
Higher-ranked profile
IOWA offense
#66
MINN defense
#38
EPA comparison
0.24
#66
0.06
#38
Pass EPA

Rushing

IOWA offense
Higher-ranked profile
IOWA offense
#30
MINN defense
#107
EPA comparison
0.20
#30
0.14
#107
Rush EPA

Drive success

IOWA offense
Higher-ranked profile
IOWA offense
#49
MINN defense
#58
Success rates
45%
#49
39%
#58
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#57
0.04
#57
EPA / play
1.23
#73
1.18
#50
Explosiveness
11%
#14
22%
#6
Havoc

When Minnesota has the ball

Passing

MINN offense
Higher-ranked profile
IOWA defense
#96
MINN offense
#76
EPA comparison
0.24
#96
0.20
#76
Pass EPA

Rushing

IOWA defense
Higher-ranked profile
IOWA defense
#6
MINN offense
#123
EPA comparison
-0.21
#6
-0.07
#123
Rush EPA

Drive success

IOWA defense
Higher-ranked profile
IOWA defense
#18
MINN offense
#76
Success rates
34%
#18
43%
#76
Success rate
More metrics
-0.02
#36
0.05
#106
EPA / play
1.15
#33
1.12
#121
Explosiveness
17%
#59
14%
#63
Havoc

Current key players

Iowa
QBJimmy Sullivan
13 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
76.898/729
RBBraeden Jackson
170 yds · 2 TD · 8.9 YPC
88.218/1044
LBJulian Manson
7 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
68.1
Coverage
83.2
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
84.941/1796
DBJacob Wallace
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
85.3
Coverage
74.0
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
142
Passer rating allowed
68.2
Missed tackles
0
81.545/2969
LBCam Buffington
44 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
83.1
Coverage
76.8
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
15
Missed tackles
6
Forced fumbles
0
81.364/1796
DBXavier Styles
4 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.8
Coverage
82.6
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
80.063/2969
Availability reports · 1
  • Hank Brown · QBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Brown is nursing with a shoulder injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against the Gophers on Saturday, October 24th .

Minnesota
QBDrake Lindsey
1087 yds · 8 TD · 4 INT
72.5133/729
DBJohn Nestor
16 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.8
Coverage
87.2
Targets allowed
17
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
48
Passer rating allowed
53.8
Missed tackles
2
85.622/2969
DBAydan West
15 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
52.8
Coverage
83.8
Targets allowed
17
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
61
Passer rating allowed
26.8
Missed tackles
3
81.148/2969
LBNate Cleveland
3 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
91.5
Coverage
39.7
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
79.294/1796
WRNoah Jennings
26 rec · 345 yds · 1 TD
78.468/2069
LBMason Carrier
4 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.5
Coverage
70.6
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
3
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
77.8123/1796
Availability reports · 6
  • Ashton Beers · OLout · 2026-10-01

    Minnesota Football: Starting center Ashton Beers out for the season - The Daily Gopher

  • Ryan Estrada · RBout · 2026-09-07

    Estrada is out of action due to a knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • A.J. Turner · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Turner is nursing with an undisclosed injury, but he is projected to suit up against the Hawkeyes on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Beckham Sunderland · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sunderland is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Hawkeyes on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Braiden Stevens · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Stevens is ailing from illness, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Hawkeyes on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Zeke Bates · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Bates is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Hawkeyes on Saturday, October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

IOWA
MINN
vs
Offense
76.8
#75 of 138
QB
72.5
#93 of 138
80.8
#33 of 138
RB
74.5
#78 of 138
68.1
#108 of 138
WR
74.7
#35 of 138
74.4
#41 of 138
TE
57.3
#134 of 138
79.1
#5 of 138
OL
76.0
#13 of 138
Defense
74.3
#62 of 138
DL
77.1
#35 of 138
81.6
#13 of 138
LB
77.0
#43 of 138
75.4
#29 of 138
DB
74.7
#37 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Iowa
opponent
Minnesota
H+16.3
PUR#67
-28.0A
H+10.6
WIS#32
-6.2A
A+17.0
WASH#45
+3.0A
A-2.3
NU#16
-8.5H
A+1.0
MICH#23
+6.0H