AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
Floyd of Rosedale
#22Away
Iowa
0-0 · AVR 67.0
30p
#54Home
Minnesota
0-0 · AVR 54.4
21p
IOWA 71%29% MINN
Spread
IOWA -8.1
Total
51
Moneyline
IOWA-245MINN+245
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← IOWA advantageevenMINN advantage →
IOWA throw
IOWA protection #5MINN pass rush #20
MINN +27
IOWA run
even
MINN throw
IOWA pass rush #76
IOWA +7
MINN run
MINN +11

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hecklinski
Jack Dotzler
vs
Anthony Smith
LT · IOWA
EDGE · MINN
91.6
86.8
IOWA +5
when MINN throws
Noah Jennings
vs
Zach Lutmer
X · MINN
CB1 · IOWA
61.2
91.9
IOWA +31
when IOWA runs
Kamari Moulton
vs
Maverick Baranowski
RB · IOWA
MLB · MINN
74.1
78.3
MINN +4
when MINN runs
Darius Taylor
vs
Jayden Montgomery
RB · MINN
MLB · IOWA
69.0
62.0
MINN +7
over the middle
DJ Vonnahme
vs
Rhyland Kelly
TE · IOWA
FS · MINN
72.6
54.5
IOWA +18
when IOWA throws
Reece Vander Zee
vs
John Nestor
X · IOWA
CB1 · MINN
48.0
71.9
MINN +24

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Iowa
DBZach Lutmer
91.96/1427
DBTyler Browndoubtful
84.254/1427
DBDeshaun Lee
77.2122/1427
RBKamari Moulton
74.138/514
TEDJ Vonnahme
72.68/287
LBJayden Montgomery
62.0253/878
Minnesota
LBMaverick Baranowski
78.375/878
LBMatt Kingsbury
76.096/878
DBJohn Nestor
71.9192/1427
RBDarius Taylor
69.057/514
QBDrake Lindsey
68.644/308
DBKerry Brown
63.7391/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Iowa
opponent
Minnesota
home+17.3
Purdue#69
+1.7away
home+15.4
Wisconsin#58
-0.2away
away-6.5
Washington#15
-17.1away
away-7.5
Michigan#13
-13.1home
away+2.7
Northwestern#37
-2.9home

Projected margin

80% between -26 and 9
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKIOWA +8.195% interval: -32 to 15.880% interval: -25.5 to 9.3-25+9IOWA wins 71%MINN wins 29%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ IOWA 28–21 MINNMINN 18–53 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMINN 21–49 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMINN 25–46 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMINN 28–42 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMINN 32–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMINN 35–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMINN 39–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMINN 42–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMINN 46–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMINN 14–49 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMINN 18–46 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMINN 21–42 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMINN 25–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMINN 28–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMINN 32–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMINN 35–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMINN 39–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMINN 42–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMINN 11–46 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMINN 14–42 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMINN 18–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMINN 21–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMINN 25–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMINN 28–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMINN 32–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMINN 35–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMINN 39–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMINN 7–42 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMINN 11–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMINN 14–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMINN 18–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMINN 21–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMINN 25–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMINN 28–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMINN 32–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMINN 35–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMINN 4–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMINN 7–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMINN 11–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMINN 14–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMINN 18–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMINN 21–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMINN 25–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMINN 28–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMINN 32–11 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMINN 0–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMINN 4–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMINN 7–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMINN 11–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMINN 14–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMINN 18–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMINN 21–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMINN 25–11 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMINN 28–7 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MINN 0–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMINN 4–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMINN 7–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMINN 11–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMINN 14–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMINN 18–11 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMINN 21–7 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMINN 25–4 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalIOWA +35IOWA +21IOWA +7MINN +7MINN +21margin →