AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#65Away
Michigan State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
25p
#53Home
UCLA
0-0 · AVR 54.5
32p
MSU 32%68% UCLA
Spread
UCLA -6.8
Total
56
Moneyline
MSU+213UCLA-213
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MSU advantageevenUCLA advantage →
MSU throw
MSU QB #138
UCLA +50
MSU run
MSU line #73MSU backs #18
UCLA +12
UCLA throw
UCLA +18
UCLA run
MSU front #98MSU linebackers #13
UCLA +4

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UCLA throws
Landon Ellis
vs
Charles Brantley
X · UCLA
CB1 · MSU
87.0
85.6
dead even
when UCLA runs
Wayne Knight
vs
Caleb Wheatland
RB · UCLA
MLB · MSU
82.7
86.7
MSU +4
when MSU runs
Cam Edwards
vs
Drew Spinogatti
RB · MSU
MLB · UCLA
83.7
84.8
dead even
when MSU throws
KK Smith
vs
Derrick Barksdale
X · MSU
CB1 · UCLA
54.5
89.4
UCLA +35
off the edge· hunting Iamaleava
Hall Schmidt
vs
Kenny Soares Jr.
LT · UCLA
EDGE · MSU
69.2
68.5
dead even
off the edge· hunting Fancher
Nick Sharpe
vs
Sahir West
LT · MSU
EDGE · UCLA
42.1
93.8
UCLA +52

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Michigan State
LBCaleb Wheatland
86.715/878
CBCharles Brantley
85.638/1427
RBCam Edwards
83.713/514
LBDion Crawford
79.757/878
SMichael Richard
77.0125/1427
CBTre Bell
72.8180/1427
UCLA
DBDerrick Barksdale
89.415/1427
WRLandon Ellis
87.07/777
LBDrew Spinogatti
84.822/878
RBWayne Knight
82.715/514
LBSammy Omosigho
82.441/878
DBTao Johnson
81.872/1427

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Michigan State
opponent
UCLA
away-4.8
Wisconsin#58
+4.5home
away-22.7
Michigan#13
-18.4away
home-6.8
Illinois#35
-2.5home
home-27.9
Oregon#2
-28.6away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUCLA +6.895% interval: -17.1 to 30.780% interval: -10.5 to 24.2-10+24MSU wins 32%UCLA wins 68%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UCLA 32–25 MSUUCLA 28–49 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 32–46 MSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCLA 35–42 MSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCLA 39–39 MSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCLA 42–35 MSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCLA 46–32 MSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCLA 49–28 MSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCLA 53–25 MSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCLA 56–21 MSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCLA 25–46 MSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 28–42 MSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCLA 32–39 MSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCLA 35–35 MSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCLA 39–32 MSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUCLA 42–28 MSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCLA 46–25 MSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCLA 49–21 MSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCLA 53–18 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 21–42 MSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 25–39 MSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCLA 28–35 MSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCLA 32–32 MSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUCLA 35–28 MSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUCLA 39–25 MSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUCLA 42–21 MSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCLA 46–18 MSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUCLA 49–14 MSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 18–39 MSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 21–35 MSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCLA 25–32 MSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCLA 28–28 MSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUCLA 32–25 MSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUCLA 35–21 MSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUCLA 39–18 MSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCLA 42–14 MSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCLA 46–11 MSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 14–35 MSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 18–32 MSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCLA 21–28 MSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCLA 25–25 MSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUCLA 28–21 MSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUCLA 32–18 MSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUCLA 35–14 MSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCLA 39–11 MSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUCLA 42–7 MSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 11–32 MSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 14–28 MSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCLA 18–25 MSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCLA 21–21 MSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCLA 25–18 MSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUCLA 28–14 MSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCLA 32–11 MSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCLA 35–7 MSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCLA 39–4 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 7–28 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 11–25 MSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCLA 14–21 MSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCLA 18–18 MSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCLA 21–14 MSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCLA 25–11 MSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCLA 28–7 MSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCLA 32–4 MSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCLA 35–0 MSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalMSU +21MSU +7UCLA +7UCLA +21UCLA +35margin →