AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#13Away
Michigan
0-0 · AVR 73.3
34p
#48Home
Rutgers
0-0 · AVR 55.7
22p
MICH 80%20% RUTG
Spread
MICH -12.4
Total
56
Moneyline
MICH-398RUTG+398
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MICH advantageevenRUTG advantage →
MICH throw
RUTG coverage #153RUTG pass rush #21
MICH +50
MICH run
RUTG front #21RUTG linebackers #132
MICH +34
RUTG throw
MICH +13
RUTG run
MICH linebackers #95
RUTG +21

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Underwood
Nathan Efobi
vs
Malachi Davis
LT · MICH
EDGE · RUTG
88.1
96.3
RUTG +8
off the edge· hunting Lonergan
Kwabena Asamoah
vs
John Henry Daley
LT · RUTG
EDGE · MICH
73.7
107.8
MICH +34
when RUTG throws
KJ Duff
vs
Smith Snowden
X · RUTG
CB1 · MICH
87.1
88.1
dead even
when RUTG runs
Antwan Raymond
vs
Troy Bowles
RB · RUTG
MLB · MICH
86.0
65.7
RUTG +20
when MICH runs
Jordan Marshall
vs
Ty Morris
RB · MICH
MLB · RUTG
80.1
65.5
MICH +15
when MICH throws
Andrew Marsh
vs
Kevyn Humes
X · MICH
CB1 · RUTG
84.8
46.7
MICH +38

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Michigan
CBSmith Snowden
88.120/1427
WRAndrew Marsh
84.815/777
QBBryce Underwood
84.012/308
WRJJ Buchanan
82.318/777
CBJyaire Hill
80.687/1427
RBJordan Marshall
80.122/514

also out — QB (QB), Former Michigan sacks leader, RB (RB), Ace Hamilton (OL), Andrew Babalola (OL), Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan Football Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan freshman +5 more

Rutgers
WRKJ Duff
87.15/777
RBAntwan Raymond
86.04/514
LBTy Morris
65.5206/878
QBDylan Lonergan
62.362/308
TEJackson Gister
57.277/287
WRMichael Thomas III
53.7199/777

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Michigan
opponent
Rutgers
home+7.2
Penn State#21
-12.7away
home+1.2
Indiana#7
-13.8home
home+22.7
Michigan State#65
+7.8home

Projected margin

80% between -30 and 5
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMICH +12.495% interval: -36.3 to 11.580% interval: -29.8 to 5-30+5MICH wins 80%RUTG wins 20%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MICH 35–21 RUTGRUTG 18–60 MICH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesRUTG 21–56 MICH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesRUTG 25–53 MICH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRUTG 28–49 MICH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRUTG 32–46 MICH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRUTG 35–42 MICH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesRUTG 39–39 MICH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesRUTG 42–35 MICH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesRUTG 46–32 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 14–56 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 18–53 MICH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesRUTG 21–49 MICH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesRUTG 25–46 MICH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRUTG 28–42 MICH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesRUTG 32–39 MICH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesRUTG 35–35 MICH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRUTG 39–32 MICH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRUTG 42–28 MICH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRUTG 11–53 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 14–49 MICH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRUTG 18–46 MICH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRUTG 21–42 MICH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesRUTG 25–39 MICH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesRUTG 28–35 MICH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesRUTG 32–32 MICH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRUTG 35–28 MICH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesRUTG 39–25 MICH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRUTG 7–49 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 11–46 MICH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRUTG 14–42 MICH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRUTG 18–39 MICH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesRUTG 21–35 MICH neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesRUTG 25–32 MICH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesRUTG 28–28 MICH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesRUTG 32–25 MICH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesRUTG 35–21 MICH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesRUTG 4–46 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 7–42 MICH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRUTG 11–39 MICH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRUTG 14–35 MICH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesRUTG 18–32 MICH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesRUTG 21–28 MICH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesRUTG 25–25 MICH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRUTG 28–21 MICH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesRUTG 32–18 MICH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRUTG 0–42 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 4–39 MICH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesRUTG 7–35 MICH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesRUTG 11–32 MICH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRUTG 14–28 MICH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesRUTG 18–25 MICH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesRUTG 21–21 MICH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRUTG 25–18 MICH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRUTG 28–14 MICH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)RUTG 0–35 MICH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesRUTG 4–32 MICH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRUTG 7–28 MICH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRUTG 11–25 MICH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRUTG 14–21 MICH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesRUTG 18–18 MICH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesRUTG 21–14 MICH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesRUTG 25–11 MICH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalMICH +42MICH +28MICH +14PKRUTG +14margin →