AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#120Away
Nevada
0-0 · AVR 32.0
17p
#53Home
UCLA
0-0 · AVR 54.5
35p
NEV 11%89% UCLA
Spread
UCLA -18.1
Total
52
Moneyline
NEV+816UCLA-816
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NEV advantageevenUCLA advantage →
NEV throw
NEV WR #150
UCLA +47
NEV run
NEV backs #144
UCLA +49
UCLA throw
UCLA +11
UCLA run
NEV front #44NEV linebackers #116
UCLA +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Iamaleava
Hall Schmidt
vs
Dylan LaBarbera
LT · UCLA
EDGE · NEV
69.2
97.8
NEV +29
when UCLA throws
Landon Ellis
vs
Bryson Snelling
X · UCLA
CB1 · NEV
87.0
64.8
UCLA +22
off the edge· hunting Jones
Jack Foster
vs
Sahir West
LT · NEV
EDGE · UCLA
47.9
93.8
UCLA +46
when UCLA runs
Wayne Knight
vs
Jeremy Naborne-Owens
RB · UCLA
MLB · NEV
82.7
54.5
UCLA +28
when NEV runs
Herschel Turner
vs
Drew Spinogatti
RB · NEV
MLB · UCLA
47.0
84.8
UCLA +38
when NEV throws
Daijon Calimon
vs
Derrick Barksdale
X · NEV
CB1 · UCLA
36.8
89.4
UCLA +53

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Nevada
DBBryson Snelling
64.8363/1427
DBJaylen Webb
64.7368/1427
DBBishop Turner
61.3449/1427
LBJeremy Naborne-Owens
54.5401/878
QBCarter Jones
54.3106/308
LBPoasa Utu
54.2403/878
UCLA
DBDerrick Barksdale
89.415/1427
WRLandon Ellis
87.07/777
LBDrew Spinogatti
84.822/878
RBWayne Knight
82.715/514
LBSammy Omosigho
82.441/878
DBTao Johnson
81.872/1427

Projected margin

80% between 1 and 36
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUCLA +18.195% interval: -5.8 to 4280% interval: 0.7 to 35.5+1+36NEV wins 11%UCLA wins 89%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UCLA 35–14 NEVUCLA 32–39 NEV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCLA 35–35 NEV neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCLA 39–32 NEV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCLA 42–28 NEV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUCLA 46–25 NEV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCLA 49–21 NEV neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCLA 53–18 NEV neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUCLA 56–14 NEV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCLA 60–11 NEV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCLA 28–35 NEV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCLA 32–32 NEV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCLA 35–28 NEV neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCLA 39–25 NEV neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUCLA 42–21 NEV neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUCLA 46–18 NEV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCLA 49–14 NEV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCLA 53–11 NEV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCLA 56–7 NEV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCLA 25–32 NEV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCLA 28–28 NEV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCLA 32–25 NEV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCLA 35–21 NEV neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUCLA 39–18 NEV neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUCLA 42–14 NEV neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCLA 46–11 NEV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCLA 49–7 NEV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCLA 53–4 NEV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 21–28 NEV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCLA 25–25 NEV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCLA 28–21 NEV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCLA 32–18 NEV neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUCLA 35–14 NEV neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUCLA 39–11 NEV neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUCLA 42–7 NEV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCLA 46–4 NEV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCLA 49–0 NEV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 18–25 NEV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCLA 21–21 NEV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCLA 25–18 NEV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUCLA 28–14 NEV neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCLA 32–11 NEV neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCLA 35–7 NEV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCLA 39–4 NEV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCLA 42–0 NEV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UCLA 14–21 NEV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCLA 18–18 NEV neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCLA 21–14 NEV neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCLA 25–11 NEV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCLA 28–7 NEV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCLA 32–4 NEV neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCLA 35–0 NEV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)UCLA 11–18 NEV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 14–14 NEV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCLA 18–11 NEV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCLA 21–7 NEV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCLA 25–4 NEV neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCLA 28–0 NEV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalNEV +7UCLA +7UCLA +21UCLA +35UCLA +49margin →