AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#48Away
Rutgers
0-0 · AVR 55.7
27p
#58Home
Wisconsin
0-0 · AVR 51.9
27p
RUTG 51%49% WIS
Spread
RUTG -0.5
Total
54
Moneyline
RUTG-106WIS+106
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← RUTG advantageevenWIS advantage →
RUTG throw
RUTG +17
RUTG run
RUTG +11
WIS throw
WIS QB #24WIS WR #129
WIS +6
WIS run
WIS line #100WIS backs #47
RUTG +10

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when RUTG throws
KJ Duff
vs
Javan Robinson
X · RUTG
CB1 · WIS
87.1
82.8
RUTG +4
when RUTG runs
Antwan Raymond
vs
Mason Posa
RB · RUTG
MLB · WIS
86.0
79.6
RUTG +6
off the edge· hunting Lonergan
Kwabena Asamoah
vs
Junior Poyser
LT · RUTG
EDGE · WIS
73.7
79.0
WIS +5
when WIS runs
Abu Sama III
vs
Ty Morris
RB · WIS
MLB · RUTG
69.7
65.5
WIS +4
off the edge· hunting Joseph
Austin Kawecki
vs
Malachi Davis
LT · WIS
EDGE · RUTG
31.5
96.3
RUTG +65
over the middle
Jackson Gister
vs
Bryce West
TE · RUTG
FS · WIS
57.2
43.8
RUTG +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Rutgers
WRKJ Duff
87.15/777
RBAntwan Raymond
86.04/514
LBTy Morris
65.5206/878
QBDylan Lonergan
62.362/308
TEJackson Gister
57.277/287
WRMichael Thomas III
53.7199/777
Wisconsin
CBJavan Robinson
82.864/1427
SMarvin Burks Jr.
82.269/1427
LBMason Posa
79.659/878
QBColton Joseph
78.524/308
LBSebastian Cheeks
74.7108/878
RBAbu Sama III
69.754/514

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Rutgers
opponent
Wisconsin
home-14.8
USC#10
-17.8home
away-12.7
Penn State#21
-15.7away
home+7.8
Michigan State#65
+4.8home
away-3.0
Maryland#47
-5.9away

Projected margin

80% between -18 and 17
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKRUTG +0.595% interval: -24.4 to 23.480% interval: -17.9 to 16.9-18+17RUTG wins 51%WIS wins 49%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WIS 28–28 RUTGWIS 25–53 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWIS 28–49 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWIS 32–46 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWIS 35–42 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWIS 39–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWIS 42–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWIS 46–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWIS 49–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWIS 53–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWIS 21–49 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWIS 25–46 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWIS 28–42 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWIS 32–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWIS 35–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWIS 39–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWIS 42–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWIS 46–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWIS 49–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWIS 18–46 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWIS 21–42 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWIS 25–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWIS 28–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWIS 32–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWIS 35–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWIS 39–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWIS 42–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWIS 46–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWIS 14–42 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWIS 18–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWIS 21–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWIS 25–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWIS 28–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWIS 32–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWIS 35–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWIS 39–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWIS 42–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWIS 11–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWIS 14–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWIS 18–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWIS 21–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWIS 25–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWIS 28–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWIS 32–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWIS 35–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWIS 39–11 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWIS 7–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWIS 11–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWIS 14–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWIS 18–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWIS 21–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWIS 25–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWIS 28–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWIS 32–11 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWIS 35–7 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWIS 4–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWIS 7–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWIS 11–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWIS 14–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWIS 18–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWIS 21–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWIS 25–11 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWIS 28–7 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWIS 32–4 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalRUTG +28RUTG +14PKWIS +14WIS +28margin →