AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#69Away
Purdue
0-0 · AVR 49.1
17p
#22Home
Iowa
0-0 · AVR 67.0
35p
PUR 12%88% IOWA
Spread
IOWA -17.3
Total
52
Moneyline
PUR+747IOWA-747
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← PUR advantageevenIOWA advantage →
PUR throw
PUR protection #96IOWA pass rush #76
IOWA +26
PUR run
IOWA +9
IOWA throw
IOWA protection #5
IOWA +6
IOWA run
IOWA +49

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when PUR throws
Asaad Waseem
vs
Zach Lutmer
X · PUR
CB1 · IOWA
68.9
91.9
IOWA +23
off the edge· hunting Hecklinski
Jack Dotzler
vs
Rodney Lora
LT · IOWA
EDGE · PUR
91.6
67.2
IOWA +24
when IOWA runs
Kamari Moulton
vs
Charles Correa
RB · IOWA
MLB · PUR
74.1
64.8
IOWA +9
off the edge· hunting Browne
Micah Banuelos
vs
Luke Gaffney
LT · PUR
EDGE · IOWA
57.3
68.5
IOWA +11
over the middle
DJ Vonnahme
vs
Smiley Bradford
TE · IOWA
FS · PUR
72.6
52.1
IOWA +20
when IOWA throws
Reece Vander Zee
vs
Mister Clark
X · IOWA
CB1 · PUR
48.0
73.5
PUR +25

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Purdue
DBMister Clark
73.5170/1427
WRAsaad Waseem
68.959/777
LBCharles Correa
64.8218/878
LBHudson Miller
63.8229/878
QBRyan Browne
61.563/308
DBDon Saunders
57.3556/1427

also out — K. Fox (TE), Smiley Bradford

Iowa
DBZach Lutmer
91.96/1427
DBTyler Browndoubtful
84.254/1427
DBDeshaun Lee
77.2122/1427
RBKamari Moulton
74.138/514
TEDJ Vonnahme
72.68/287
LBJayden Montgomery
62.0253/878

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Purdue
opponent
Iowa
away-11.4
Illinois#35
+3.4away
home+0.6
Wisconsin#58
+15.4home
home-16.3
Washington#15
-6.5away
home-1.7
Minnesota#54
+8.1away

Projected margin

80% between -0 and 35
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKIOWA +17.395% interval: -6.6 to 41.280% interval: -0.1 to 34.70+35PUR wins 12%IOWA wins 88%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ IOWA 32–18 PURIOWA 28–42 PUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIOWA 32–39 PUR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIOWA 35–35 PUR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIOWA 39–32 PUR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesIOWA 42–28 PUR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesIOWA 46–25 PUR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesIOWA 49–21 PUR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIOWA 53–18 PUR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesIOWA 56–14 PUR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIOWA 25–39 PUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIOWA 28–35 PUR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIOWA 32–32 PUR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIOWA 35–28 PUR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIOWA 39–25 PUR neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesIOWA 42–21 PUR neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesIOWA 46–18 PUR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIOWA 49–14 PUR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIOWA 53–11 PUR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIOWA 21–35 PUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIOWA 25–32 PUR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIOWA 28–28 PUR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIOWA 32–25 PUR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesIOWA 35–21 PUR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIOWA 39–18 PUR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIOWA 42–14 PUR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesIOWA 46–11 PUR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesIOWA 49–7 PUR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIOWA 18–32 PUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIOWA 21–28 PUR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIOWA 25–25 PUR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIOWA 28–21 PUR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesIOWA 32–18 PUR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIOWA 35–14 PUR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIOWA 39–11 PUR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesIOWA 42–7 PUR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesIOWA 46–4 PUR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIOWA 14–28 PUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIOWA 18–25 PUR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIOWA 21–21 PUR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesIOWA 25–18 PUR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIOWA 28–14 PUR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesIOWA 32–11 PUR neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesIOWA 35–7 PUR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIOWA 39–4 PUR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIOWA 42–0 PUR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIOWA 11–25 PUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIOWA 14–21 PUR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIOWA 18–18 PUR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIOWA 21–14 PUR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesIOWA 25–11 PUR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesIOWA 28–7 PUR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesIOWA 32–4 PUR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesIOWA 35–0 PUR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)IOWA 7–21 PUR neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesIOWA 11–18 PUR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIOWA 14–14 PUR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIOWA 18–11 PUR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIOWA 21–7 PUR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIOWA 25–4 PUR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIOWA 28–0 PUR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalPUR +14PKIOWA +14IOWA +28IOWA +42margin →