AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#58Away
Wisconsin
0-0 · AVR 51.9
22p
#47Home
Maryland
0-0 · AVR 56.2
28p
WIS 34%66% MD
Spread
MD -5.9
Total
49
Moneyline
WIS+191MD-191
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WIS advantageevenMD advantage →
WIS throw
WIS QB #24WIS WR #129
MD +11
WIS run
WIS line #100WIS backs #47
MD +13
MD throw
MD protection #69
MD +17
MD run
WIS +17

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MD throws
Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
vs
Javan Robinson
X · MD
CB1 · WIS
72.8
82.8
WIS +10
when MD runs
DeJuan Williams
vs
Mason Posa
RB · MD
MLB · WIS
69.0
79.6
WIS +11
off the edge· hunting Washington
Tellek Lockette
vs
Junior Poyser
LT · MD
EDGE · WIS
67.2
79.0
WIS +12
when WIS runs
Abu Sama III
vs
Daniel Wingate
RB · WIS
MLB · MD
69.7
68.0
dead even
when WIS throws
Shamar Rigby
vs
Dontay Joyner
X · WIS
CB1 · MD
44.2
74.9
MD +31
off the edge· hunting Joseph
Austin Kawecki
vs
Zahir Mathis
LT · WIS
EDGE · MD
31.5
76.3
MD +45

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Wisconsin
CBJavan Robinson
82.864/1427
SMarvin Burks Jr.
82.269/1427
LBMason Posa
79.659/878
QBColton Joseph
78.524/308
LBSebastian Cheeks
74.7108/878
RBAbu Sama III
69.754/514
Maryland
QBMalik Washington
77.625/308
DBDontay Joyner
74.9155/1427
WRNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
72.842/777
RBDeJuan Williams
69.058/514
LBDaniel Wingate
68.0177/878
DBJamare Glasker
68.0280/1427

also out — Z. Mathis (LB)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Wisconsin
opponent
Maryland
away-15.7
Penn State#21
-7.2home
away-4.5
UCLA#53
+3.9home
home-0.5
Rutgers#48
+3.0home
away-0.6
Purdue#69
+2.8away
home-17.8
USC#10
-19.3away

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 23
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMD +5.995% interval: -18 to 29.880% interval: -11.5 to 23.3-11+23WIS wins 34%MD wins 66%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MD 28–21 WISMD 25–46 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 28–42 WIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMD 32–39 WIS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMD 35–35 WIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMD 39–32 WIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMD 42–28 WIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMD 46–25 WIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMD 49–21 WIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMD 53–18 WIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMD 21–42 WIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMD 25–39 WIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMD 28–35 WIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMD 32–32 WIS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMD 35–28 WIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMD 39–25 WIS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMD 42–21 WIS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMD 46–18 WIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMD 49–14 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 18–39 WIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMD 21–35 WIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMD 25–32 WIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMD 28–28 WIS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMD 32–25 WIS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMD 35–21 WIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMD 39–18 WIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMD 42–14 WIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMD 46–11 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 14–35 WIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMD 18–32 WIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMD 21–28 WIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMD 25–25 WIS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMD 28–21 WIS neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMD 32–18 WIS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMD 35–14 WIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMD 39–11 WIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMD 42–7 WIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMD 11–32 WIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMD 14–28 WIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMD 18–25 WIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMD 21–21 WIS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMD 25–18 WIS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMD 28–14 WIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMD 32–11 WIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMD 35–7 WIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMD 39–4 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 7–28 WIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMD 11–25 WIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMD 14–21 WIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMD 18–18 WIS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMD 21–14 WIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMD 25–11 WIS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMD 28–7 WIS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMD 32–4 WIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMD 35–0 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 4–25 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 7–21 WIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMD 11–18 WIS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMD 14–14 WIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMD 18–11 WIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMD 21–7 WIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMD 25–4 WIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMD 28–0 WIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalWIS +21WIS +7MD +7MD +21MD +35margin →