AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#15Away
Washington
0-0 · AVR 72.3
37p
#65Home
Michigan State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
20p
WASH 87%13% MSU
Spread
WASH -16.7
Total
58
Moneyline
WASH-682MSU+682
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WASH advantageevenMSU advantage →
WASH throw
WASH +36
WASH run
MSU front #98MSU linebackers #13
even
MSU throw
MSU QB #138WASH pass rush #72
WASH +48
MSU run
MSU line #73MSU backs #18
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when WASH throws
Dezmen Roebuck
vs
Charles Brantley
X · WASH
CB1 · MSU
86.2
85.6
dead even
when MSU runs
Cam Edwards
vs
Xe'ree Alexander
RB · MSU
MLB · WASH
83.7
81.2
dead even
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Elishah Jackett
vs
Kenny Soares Jr.
LT · WASH
EDGE · MSU
82.4
68.5
WASH +14
when WASH runs
Jayden Limar
vs
Caleb Wheatland
RB · WASH
MLB · MSU
58.6
86.7
MSU +28
when MSU throws
KK Smith
vs
Emmanuel Karnley
X · MSU
CB1 · WASH
54.5
82.4
WASH +28
over the middle
Decker DeGraaf
vs
Caleb Gash
TE · WASH
FS · MSU
71.5
48.6
WASH +23

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Washington
WRDezmen Roebuck
86.212/777
QBDemond Williams Jr.
83.016/308
CBEmmanuel Karnley
82.467/1427
LBXe'ree Alexanderprobable
81.247/878
SRahshawn Clark
80.986/1427
SAlex McLaughlin
79.298/1427

also out — Washington Football Standing, Jordan Washington, Washington Huskies Running Back (RB), Former Washington football star, Ashton Jeanty (RB)

Michigan State
LBCaleb Wheatland
86.715/878
CBCharles Brantley
85.638/1427
RBCam Edwards
83.713/514
LBDion Crawford
79.757/878
SMichael Richard
77.0125/1427
CBTre Bell
72.8180/1427

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Washington
opponent
Michigan State
away+7.8
Nebraska#41
-6.5home
away-13.7
Oregon#2
-27.9home

Projected margin

80% between -34 and 1
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWASH +16.795% interval: -40.6 to 7.280% interval: -34.1 to 0.6-34+1WASH wins 87%MSU wins 13%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WASH 35–21 MSUMSU 18–60 WASH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 21–56 WASH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSU 25–53 WASH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSU 28–49 WASH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSU 32–46 WASH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSU 35–42 WASH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSU 39–39 WASH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSU 42–35 WASH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSU 46–32 WASH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSU 14–56 WASH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSU 18–53 WASH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMSU 21–49 WASH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSU 25–46 WASH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMSU 28–42 WASH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMSU 32–39 WASH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSU 35–35 WASH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSU 39–32 WASH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSU 42–28 WASH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSU 11–53 WASH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSU 14–49 WASH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSU 18–46 WASH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMSU 21–42 WASH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMSU 25–39 WASH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMSU 28–35 WASH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSU 32–32 WASH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSU 35–28 WASH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSU 39–25 WASH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSU 7–49 WASH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSU 11–46 WASH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSU 14–42 WASH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMSU 18–39 WASH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMSU 21–35 WASH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMSU 25–32 WASH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSU 28–28 WASH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSU 32–25 WASH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSU 35–21 WASH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSU 4–46 WASH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSU 7–42 WASH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMSU 11–39 WASH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSU 14–35 WASH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSU 18–32 WASH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMSU 21–28 WASH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMSU 25–25 WASH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSU 28–21 WASH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSU 32–18 WASH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSU 0–42 WASH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSU 4–39 WASH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSU 7–35 WASH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSU 11–32 WASH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSU 14–28 WASH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSU 18–25 WASH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSU 21–21 WASH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMSU 25–18 WASH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSU 28–14 WASH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MSU 0–35 WASH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSU 4–32 WASH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSU 7–28 WASH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSU 11–25 WASH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSU 14–21 WASH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSU 18–18 WASH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSU 21–14 WASH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSU 25–11 WASH neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalWASH +42WASH +28WASH +14PKMSU +14margin →