AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#22Away
Iowa
0-0 · AVR 67.0
29p
#35Home
Illinois
0-0 · AVR 60.4
26p
IOWA 60%40% ILL
Spread
IOWA -3.4
Total
55
Moneyline
IOWA-150ILL+150
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← IOWA advantageevenILL advantage →
IOWA throw
IOWA protection #5
even
IOWA run
IOWA +39
ILL throw
IOWA pass rush #76
even
ILL run
ILL +25

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hecklinski
Jack Dotzler
vs
Isaiah Thomison
LT · IOWA
EDGE · ILL
91.6
78.8
IOWA +13
when ILL throws
Collin Dixon
vs
Zach Lutmer
X · ILL
CB1 · IOWA
68.9
91.9
IOWA +23
over the middle
Kaden Feagin
vs
Alex Mota
TE · ILL
FS · IOWA
72.7
65.4
ILL +7
when IOWA runs
Kamari Moulton
vs
James Kreutz
RB · IOWA
MLB · ILL
74.1
63.3
IOWA +11
when ILL runs
Ca'Lil Valentine
vs
Jayden Montgomery
RB · ILL
MLB · IOWA
68.9
62.0
ILL +7
off the edge· hunting Houser
TJ McMillen
vs
Luke Gaffney
LT · ILL
EDGE · IOWA
61.6
68.5
IOWA +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Iowa
DBZach Lutmer
91.96/1427
DBTyler Browndoubtful
84.254/1427
DBDeshaun Lee
77.2122/1427
RBKamari Moulton
74.138/514
TEDJ Vonnahme
72.68/287
LBJayden Montgomery
62.0253/878
Illinois
TEKaden Feagin
72.77/287
QBKatin Houser
71.038/308
RBCa'Lil Valentine
68.960/514
WRCollin Dixon
68.960/777
WRHudson Clement
66.773/777
LBJames Kreutz
63.3236/878

also out — T. Hollinger (TE), A. Perry (WR), B. Thurman (TE), G. Smith (TE), D. Brown (LB), J. Platt (WR)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Iowa
opponent
Illinois
home-15.2
Ohio State#1
-26.1away
away+2.7
Northwestern#37
-3.2away
home+17.3
Purdue#69
+11.4home
home+8.8
Nebraska#41
+2.9home

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKIOWA +3.495% interval: -27.3 to 20.580% interval: -20.8 to 14-21+14IOWA wins 60%ILL wins 40%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ILL 28–28 IOWAILL 25–53 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesILL 28–49 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesILL 32–46 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesILL 35–42 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesILL 39–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesILL 42–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesILL 46–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesILL 49–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesILL 53–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesILL 21–49 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesILL 25–46 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesILL 28–42 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesILL 32–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesILL 35–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesILL 39–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesILL 42–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesILL 46–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesILL 49–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesILL 18–46 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesILL 21–42 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesILL 25–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesILL 28–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesILL 32–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesILL 35–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesILL 39–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesILL 42–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesILL 46–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesILL 14–42 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesILL 18–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesILL 21–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesILL 25–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesILL 28–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesILL 32–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesILL 35–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesILL 39–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesILL 42–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesILL 11–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesILL 14–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesILL 18–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesILL 21–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesILL 25–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesILL 28–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesILL 32–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesILL 35–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesILL 39–11 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesILL 7–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesILL 11–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesILL 14–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesILL 18–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesILL 21–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesILL 25–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesILL 28–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesILL 32–11 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesILL 35–7 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesILL 4–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesILL 7–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesILL 11–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesILL 14–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesILL 18–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesILL 21–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesILL 25–11 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesILL 28–7 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesILL 32–4 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalIOWA +28IOWA +14PKILL +14ILL +28margin →