AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#53Away
UCLA
0-0 · AVR 54.5
17p
#13Home
Michigan
0-0 · AVR 73.3
35p
UCLA 10%90% MICH
Spread
MICH -18.4
Total
52
Moneyline
UCLA+862MICH-862
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UCLA advantageevenMICH advantage →
UCLA throw
MICH +17
UCLA run
MICH linebackers #95
UCLA +5
MICH throw
MICH +17
MICH run
MICH +12

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Underwood
Nathan Efobi
vs
Sahir West
LT · MICH
EDGE · UCLA
88.1
93.8
UCLA +6
off the edge· hunting Iamaleava
Hall Schmidt
vs
John Henry Daley
LT · UCLA
EDGE · MICH
69.2
107.8
MICH +39
when UCLA throws
Landon Ellis
vs
Smith Snowden
X · UCLA
CB1 · MICH
87.0
88.1
dead even
when MICH throws
Andrew Marsh
vs
Derrick Barksdale
X · MICH
CB1 · UCLA
84.8
89.4
UCLA +5
when MICH runs
Jordan Marshall
vs
Drew Spinogatti
RB · MICH
MLB · UCLA
80.1
84.8
UCLA +5
when UCLA runs
Wayne Knight
vs
Troy Bowles
RB · UCLA
MLB · MICH
82.7
65.7
UCLA +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UCLA
DBDerrick Barksdale
89.415/1427
WRLandon Ellis
87.07/777
LBDrew Spinogatti
84.822/878
RBWayne Knight
82.715/514
LBSammy Omosigho
82.441/878
DBTao Johnson
81.872/1427
Michigan
CBSmith Snowden
88.120/1427
WRAndrew Marsh
84.815/777
QBBryce Underwood
84.012/308
WRJJ Buchanan
82.318/777
CBJyaire Hill
80.687/1427
RBJordan Marshall
80.122/514

also out — QB (QB), Former Michigan sacks leader, RB (RB), Ace Hamilton (OL), Andrew Babalola (OL), Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan Football Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan freshman +5 more

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UCLA
opponent
Michigan
away-28.6
Oregon#2
-12.7away
home+6.8
Michigan State#65
+22.7home
away-2.8
Minnesota#54
+13.1away

Projected margin

80% between 1 and 36
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMICH +18.495% interval: -5.5 to 42.380% interval: 1 to 35.8+1+36UCLA wins 10%MICH wins 90%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MICH 35–14 UCLAMICH 32–39 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMICH 35–35 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 39–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMICH 42–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMICH 46–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMICH 49–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 53–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMICH 56–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMICH 60–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMICH 28–35 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMICH 32–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMICH 35–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMICH 39–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMICH 42–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMICH 46–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMICH 49–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMICH 53–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMICH 56–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMICH 25–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMICH 28–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMICH 32–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMICH 35–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMICH 39–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMICH 42–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMICH 46–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMICH 49–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMICH 53–4 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 21–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMICH 25–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMICH 28–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMICH 32–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMICH 35–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMICH 39–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMICH 42–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMICH 46–4 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMICH 49–0 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 18–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMICH 21–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMICH 25–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMICH 28–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMICH 32–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMICH 35–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMICH 39–4 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMICH 42–0 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MICH 14–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMICH 18–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 21–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMICH 25–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMICH 28–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMICH 32–4 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 35–0 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MICH 11–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 14–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMICH 18–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMICH 21–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMICH 25–4 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMICH 28–0 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalUCLA +7MICH +7MICH +21MICH +35MICH +49margin →