CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
UCLA 38.5%61.5% MICH
Projected margin
MICH by 4.2
Projected total
52
80% outcome range
UCLA 14 to MICH 23
Win probability
MICH 61.5%

Current team profiles

UCLA
Michigan

When UCLA has the ball

Passing

MICH defense
Higher-ranked profile
UCLA offense
#98
MICH defense
#6
EPA comparison
0.12
#98
-0.11
#6
Pass EPA

Rushing

Same rank
UCLA offense
#12
MICH defense
#12
EPA comparison
0.26
#12
-0.14
#12
Rush EPA

Drive success

MICH defense
Higher-ranked profile
UCLA offense
#44
MICH defense
#7
Success rates
46%
#44
33%
#7
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#46
-0.12
#6
EPA / play
1.23
#72
1.14
#30
Explosiveness
14%
#63
17%
#49
Havoc

When Michigan has the ball

Passing

UCLA defense
Higher-ranked profile
UCLA defense
#5
MICH offense
#74
EPA comparison
-0.12
#5
0.21
#74
Pass EPA

Rushing

UCLA defense
Higher-ranked profile
UCLA defense
#1
MICH offense
#93
EPA comparison
-0.24
#1
0.04
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

UCLA defense
Higher-ranked profile
UCLA defense
#5
MICH offense
#83
Success rates
32%
#5
42%
#83
Success rate
More metrics
-0.20
#1
0.09
#93
EPA / play
1.23
#74
1.15
#109
Explosiveness
21%
#11
16%
#102
Havoc

Current key players

UCLA
QBNico Iamaleava
820 yds · 4 TD · 2 INT
64.9216/729
LBSammy Omosigho
38 tkl · 7.0 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
91.7
Coverage
82.5
Pressures
11
Pass-rush snaps
42
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
3
90.78/1796
LBTrent Hendrick
7 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.7
Coverage
82.5
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
7
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
86.825/1796
RBWayne Knight
445 yds · 9 TD · 9.1 YPC
86.227/1044
DBTa'Shawn James
24 tkl · 2 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
Run defense
74.0
Coverage
84.8
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
70
Passer rating allowed
41.7
Missed tackles
5
84.328/2969
DBDerrick Barksdale
12 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
72.5
Coverage
76.5
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
12
Yards allowed
110
Passer rating allowed
120.1
Missed tackles
3
77.7102/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Mikey Matthews · WRout · 2026-09-21

    Matthews is dealing with a lower-leg injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Josh Phifer · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Phifer is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Sam Yoon · OGQues. · 2026-10-11

    Yoon is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 17th.

Michigan
QBTommy Carr
23 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
91.111/729
WRJJ Buchanan
24 rec · 446 yds · 4 TD
87.417/2069
LBNathaniel Staehling
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
84.3
Coverage
71.7
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
18
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
0
81.963/1796
CBJyaire Hill
25 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.0
Coverage
81.3
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
69
Passer rating allowed
73.7
Missed tackles
4
78.583/2969
LBMax Alford
5 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
82.5
Coverage
61.6
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
77.3130/1796
SJacob Oden
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.2
Coverage
71.0
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
-3
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
74.8201/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Andrew Sprague · OGout · 2026-09-26

    Sprague is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to play against the Hawkeyes on Saturday.

  • John Henry Daley · DLQues. · 2026-09-28

    Daley is dealing with a lower body injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Minnesota on Tuesday.

  • Logan Forbes · WRQues. · 2026-09-20

    Forbes is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Iowa on Saturday.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UCLA
MICH
vs
Offense
64.9
#120 of 138
QB
91.1
#10 of 138
86.0
#7 of 138
RB
67.4
#132 of 138
74.0
#43 of 138
WR
72.0
#59 of 138
61.1
#110 of 138
TE
62.1
#105 of 138
69.3
#57 of 138
OL
73.6
#24 of 138
Defense
80.0
#16 of 138
DL
80.6
#14 of 138
84.2
#8 of 138
LB
78.0
#36 of 138
75.2
#31 of 138
DB
74.6
#39 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

UCLA
opponent
Michigan
A+2.0
ORE#8
-14.1A
A+5.0
MINN#54
-6.0A
H+10.7
MSU#62
+12.3H