AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#1Away
Ohio State
0-0 · AVR 85.7
37p
#41Home
Nebraska
0-0 · AVR 58.2
16p
OSU 93%7% NEB
Spread
OSU -21.5
Total
53
Moneyline
OSU-1358NEB+1358
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OSU advantageevenNEB advantage →
OSU throw
OSU +23
OSU run
OSU +22
NEB throw
NEB +10
NEB run
NEB line #15NEB backs #103
OSU +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when OSU throws
Jeremiah Smith
vs
Dwayne McDougle III
X · OSU
CB1 · NEB
96.0
84.3
OSU +12
off the edge· hunting Colandrea
Elijah Pritchett
vs
Kenyatta Jackson Jr.
LT · NEB
EDGE · OSU
76.6
95.4
OSU +19
when OSU runs
Bo Jackson
vs
Owen Chambliss
RB · OSU
MLB · NEB
84.6
83.3
dead even
off the edge· hunting Sayin
Austin Siereveld
vs
Jahsear Whittington
LT · OSU
EDGE · NEB
81.7
73.3
OSU +8
when NEB throws
Nyziah Hunter
vs
Jermaine Mathews Jr.
X · NEB
CB1 · OSU
70.0
69.4
dead even
when NEB runs
Mekhi Nelson
vs
Christian Alliegro
RB · NEB
MLB · OSU
52.0
79.4
OSU +27

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ohio State
WRJeremiah Smith
96.01/777
QBJulian Sayin
86.67/308
RBBo Jackson
84.68/514
LBChristian Alliegro
79.461/878
CBJermaine Mathews Jr.
69.4253/1427
LBPayton Pierce
67.8180/878

also out — Legend Bey (RB), Ohio State OL

Nebraska
SDwayne McDougle III
84.353/1427
LBOwen Chambliss
83.331/878
QBAnthony Colandrea
73.930/308
CBDonovan Jones
70.6225/1427
WRNyziah Hunter
70.056/777
CBAndrew Marshall
69.4254/1427

also out — Kahmir Prescott (S)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Ohio State
opponent
Nebraska
home+26.1
Illinois#35
-2.9away
home+5.0
Oregon#2
-24.0away
away+15.2
Iowa#22
-8.8away
home+29.7
Maryland#47
+5.7home
away+8.9
Indiana#7
-10.1home

Projected margin

80% between -39 and -4
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOSU +21.595% interval: -45.4 to 2.480% interval: -38.8 to -4.1-39-4OSU wins 93%NEB wins 7%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OSU 39–18 NEBNEB 14–63 OSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEB 18–60 OSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEB 21–56 OSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEB 25–53 OSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEB 28–49 OSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEB 32–46 OSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNEB 35–42 OSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEB 39–39 OSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEB 42–35 OSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEB 11–60 OSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEB 14–56 OSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNEB 18–53 OSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNEB 21–49 OSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNEB 25–46 OSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNEB 28–42 OSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNEB 32–39 OSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNEB 35–35 OSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEB 39–32 OSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEB 7–56 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEB 11–53 OSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEB 14–49 OSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEB 18–46 OSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNEB 21–42 OSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEB 25–39 OSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNEB 28–35 OSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEB 32–32 OSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEB 35–28 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEB 4–53 OSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEB 7–49 OSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEB 11–46 OSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEB 14–42 OSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEB 18–39 OSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNEB 21–35 OSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNEB 25–32 OSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEB 28–28 OSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEB 32–25 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEB 0–49 OSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEB 4–46 OSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEB 7–42 OSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEB 11–39 OSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEB 14–35 OSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNEB 18–32 OSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNEB 21–28 OSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEB 25–25 OSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEB 28–21 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)NEB 0–42 OSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEB 4–39 OSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEB 7–35 OSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNEB 11–32 OSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEB 14–28 OSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNEB 18–25 OSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEB 21–21 OSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNEB 25–18 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)NEB 0–35 OSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNEB 4–32 OSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNEB 7–28 OSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNEB 11–25 OSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEB 14–21 OSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNEB 18–18 OSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEB 21–14 OSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalOSU +49OSU +35OSU +21OSU +7NEB +7margin →