AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#58Away
Wisconsin
0-0 · AVR 51.9
25p
#69Home
Purdue
0-0 · AVR 49.1
25p
WIS 49%51% PUR
Spread
PUR -0.6
Total
50
Moneyline
WIS+105PUR-105
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WIS advantageevenPUR advantage →
WIS throw
WIS QB #24WIS WR #129
WIS +18
WIS run
WIS line #100WIS backs #47
WIS +7
PUR throw
PUR protection #96
WIS +5
PUR run
WIS +36

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when PUR throws
Asaad Waseem
vs
Javan Robinson
X · PUR
CB1 · WIS
68.9
82.8
WIS +14
off the edge· hunting Browne
Micah Banuelos
vs
Junior Poyser
LT · PUR
EDGE · WIS
57.3
79.0
WIS +22
when PUR runs
Fame Ijeboi
vs
Mason Posa
RB · PUR
MLB · WIS
56.4
79.6
WIS +23
when WIS runs
Abu Sama III
vs
Charles Correa
RB · WIS
MLB · PUR
69.7
64.8
WIS +5
when WIS throws
Shamar Rigby
vs
Mister Clark
X · WIS
CB1 · PUR
44.2
73.5
PUR +29
off the edge· hunting Joseph
Austin Kawecki
vs
Rodney Lora
LT · WIS
EDGE · PUR
31.5
67.2
PUR +36

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Wisconsin
CBJavan Robinson
82.864/1427
SMarvin Burks Jr.
82.269/1427
LBMason Posa
79.659/878
QBColton Joseph
78.524/308
LBSebastian Cheeks
74.7108/878
RBAbu Sama III
69.754/514
Purdue
DBMister Clark
73.5170/1427
WRAsaad Waseem
68.959/777
LBCharles Correa
64.8218/878
LBHudson Miller
63.8229/878
QBRyan Browne
61.563/308
DBDon Saunders
57.3556/1427

also out — K. Fox (TE), Smiley Bradford

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Wisconsin
opponent
Purdue
neutral-18.4
Notre Dame#4
-23.6home
away-5.9
Maryland#47
-2.8home
away-15.7
Penn State#21
-17.6away
away-4.5
UCLA#53
-6.4away
away-15.4
Iowa#22
-17.3away
home+0.2
Minnesota#54
-1.7home

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKPUR +0.695% interval: -23.3 to 24.580% interval: -16.8 to 18-17+18WIS wins 49%PUR wins 51%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PUR 25–25 WISPUR 21–49 WIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPUR 25–46 WIS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPUR 28–42 WIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPUR 32–39 WIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPUR 35–35 WIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPUR 39–32 WIS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPUR 42–28 WIS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPUR 46–25 WIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPUR 49–21 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 18–46 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 21–42 WIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPUR 25–39 WIS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPUR 28–35 WIS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPUR 32–32 WIS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPUR 35–28 WIS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPUR 39–25 WIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPUR 42–21 WIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPUR 46–18 WIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPUR 14–42 WIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPUR 18–39 WIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPUR 21–35 WIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPUR 25–32 WIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPUR 28–28 WIS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPUR 32–25 WIS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesPUR 35–21 WIS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPUR 39–18 WIS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPUR 42–14 WIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPUR 11–39 WIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPUR 14–35 WIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPUR 18–32 WIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPUR 21–28 WIS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPUR 25–25 WIS neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesPUR 28–21 WIS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPUR 32–18 WIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPUR 35–14 WIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPUR 39–11 WIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPUR 7–35 WIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPUR 11–32 WIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPUR 14–28 WIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPUR 18–25 WIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPUR 21–21 WIS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPUR 25–18 WIS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPUR 28–14 WIS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPUR 32–11 WIS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPUR 35–7 WIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPUR 4–32 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 7–28 WIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPUR 11–25 WIS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPUR 14–21 WIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPUR 18–18 WIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPUR 21–14 WIS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPUR 25–11 WIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPUR 28–7 WIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPUR 32–4 WIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPUR 0–28 WIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPUR 4–25 WIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPUR 7–21 WIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPUR 11–18 WIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPUR 14–14 WIS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPUR 18–11 WIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPUR 21–7 WIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPUR 25–4 WIS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPUR 28–0 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalWIS +28WIS +14PKPUR +14PUR +28margin →