CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 12:00 AM ET
#32Away
Wisconsin
4-1 · AVR 67.2
27p
#67Home
Purdue
3-3 · AVR 59.8
24p
Forecast win probability
WIS 58.0%42.0% PUR
Projected margin
WIS by 3.0
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
WIS 22 to PUR 16
Win probability
WIS 58.0%

Current team profiles

Wisconsin
Purdue

When Wisconsin has the ball

Passing

WIS offense
Higher-ranked profile
WIS offense
#74
PUR defense
#119
EPA comparison
0.21
#74
0.34
#119
Pass EPA

Rushing

WIS offense
Higher-ranked profile
WIS offense
#35
PUR defense
#125
EPA comparison
0.19
#35
0.20
#125
Rush EPA

Drive success

WIS offense
Higher-ranked profile
WIS offense
#105
PUR defense
#120
Success rates
40%
#105
46%
#120
Success rate
More metrics
0.17
#66
0.25
#132
EPA / play
1.47
#2
1.40
#127
Explosiveness
15%
#74
14%
#105
Havoc

When Purdue has the ball

Passing

WIS defense
Higher-ranked profile
WIS defense
#1
PUR offense
#24
EPA comparison
-0.16
#1
0.40
#24
Pass EPA

Rushing

Same rank
WIS defense
#63
PUR offense
#63
EPA comparison
0.03
#63
0.12
#63
Rush EPA

Drive success

WIS defense
Higher-ranked profile
WIS defense
#22
PUR offense
#44
Success rates
35%
#22
46%
#44
Success rate
More metrics
-0.12
#5
0.25
#29
EPA / play
0.96
#2
1.21
#83
Explosiveness
16%
#72
12%
#30
Havoc

Current key players

Wisconsin
QBRyan Hopkins
— yds · — TD · — INT
71.5144/729
LBMason Posa
40 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
91.5
Coverage
81.0
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
29
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
89.216/1796
LBCooper Catalano
45 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
89.8
Coverage
76.1
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
10
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
86.827/1796
TEJacob Harris
13 rec · 238 yds · 3 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
71.7
Run blocking
77.1
Penalties
2
84.412/1017
WRTyrell Henry
26 rec · 339 yds · 1 TD
82.437/2069
SMatthew Jung
32 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.2
Coverage
75.5
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
133
Passer rating allowed
76.8
Missed tackles
5
76.9131/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Abu Sama III · RBQues. · 2026-10-03

    Sama III is nursing an upper body injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against UCLA on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Mason Lane · RBQues. · 2026-10-08

    Lane is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against UCLA on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Danny O'Neil · QBQues. · 2026-10-03

    O'Neil is managing a lower body injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against UCLA on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jaylon Domingeaux · WRQues. · 2026-10-03

    Domingeaux is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against UCLA on Saturday, October 17th.

Purdue
QBRyan Browne
1390 yds · 8 TD · 1 INT
77.595/729
WRAsaad Waseem
27 rec · 453 yds · 1 TD
83.630/2069
DBMister Clark
5 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.8
Coverage
76.7
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
59
Passer rating allowed
95.8
Missed tackles
1
79.965/2969
RBFame Ijeboi
354 yds · 6 TD · 4.1 YPC
79.590/1044
WRXavier Townsend
28 rec · 307 yds · 2 TD
74.0146/2069
LBHudson Miller
7 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
64.4
Coverage
70.6
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
70.1362/1796
Availability reports · 1
  • Kylan Fox · TEout · 2026-08-13

    Fox is laid up with a knee injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

WIS
PUR
vs
Offense
71.5
#97 of 138
QB
77.5
#72 of 138
72.8
#100 of 138
RB
75.2
#72 of 138
71.6
#66 of 138
WR
77.0
#26 of 138
84.4
#12 of 138
TE
69.3
#69 of 138
72.3
#31 of 138
OL
61.7
#121 of 138
Defense
70.3
#103 of 138
DL
72.2
#83 of 138
86.8
#1 of 138
LB
65.6
#132 of 138
73.6
#48 of 138
DB
66.1
#133 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Wisconsin
opponent
Purdue
A+4.0
PSU#43
-19.7A
H+6.2
MINN#54
+28.0H
N-28.0
ND#1
-39.0H
A-6.7
UCLA#24
-14.0A
A-10.6
IOWA#20
-16.3A
A+1.8
MD#72
+1.4H