CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 7:30 PM ET
#125Away
Troy
2-1 · AVR 50.5
10
Final
#104Home
Utah State
0-3 · AVR 54.1
21
Forecast win probability
TROY 44.5%55.5% USU
Projected margin
USU by 1.7
Projected total
46
80% outcome range
TROY 19 to USU 21
Win probability
USU 55.5%
FinalTROY 10 · USU 21model had +1.7, off by 9.3

Current team profiles

Troy
Utah State

When Troy has the ball

Passing

USU defense
Higher-ranked profile
TROY offense
#101
USU defense
#60
EPA comparison
0.11
#101
0.11
#60
Pass EPA

Rushing

USU defense
Higher-ranked profile
TROY offense
#45
USU defense
#40
EPA comparison
0.16
#45
-0.02
#40
Rush EPA

Drive success

USU defense
Higher-ranked profile
TROY offense
#79
USU defense
#60
Success rates
43%
#79
39%
#60
Success rate
More metrics
0.13
#78
0.05
#59
EPA / play
1.26
#47
1.18
#46
Explosiveness
17%
#114
14%
#101
Havoc

When Utah State has the ball

Passing

TROY defense
Higher-ranked profile
TROY defense
#71
USU offense
#133
EPA comparison
0.15
#71
-0.10
#133
Pass EPA

Rushing

TROY defense
Higher-ranked profile
TROY defense
#56
USU offense
#122
EPA comparison
0.02
#56
-0.05
#122
Rush EPA

Drive success

TROY defense
Higher-ranked profile
TROY defense
#64
USU offense
#131
Success rates
40%
#64
35%
#131
Success rate
More metrics
0.07
#73
-0.08
#132
EPA / play
1.35
#116
1.39
#8
Explosiveness
17%
#59
19%
#130
Havoc

Current key players

Troy
QBGoose Crowder
822 yds · 7 TD · 4 INT
60.7263/729
SJustin Powe
26 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
84.7
Coverage
78.7
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
37
Passer rating allowed
118.1
Missed tackles
3
80.952/2969
RBGavin Griffin
259 yds · 0 TD · 4.8 YPC
77.6124/1044
DBDonnie Smith
14 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
58.0
Coverage
67.2
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
31
Passer rating allowed
100.7
Missed tackles
5
73.3262/2969
SJamarion Keyes
17 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
78.5
Coverage
68.9
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
75
Passer rating allowed
94.3
Missed tackles
1
72.9285/2969
LBTJ Thompson
20 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.2
Coverage
67.7
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
23
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
72.3282/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Jackson Worley · TEout · 2026-10-03

    Worley has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Fabian Rogosch · TEQues. · 2026-10-06

    Rogosch is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Louisiana on Saturday, October 17th.

Utah State
QBGrady Brosterhous
764 yds · 6 TD · 6 INT
49.1374/729
LBAsher Cunningham
34 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
88.8
Coverage
74.0
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
38
Missed tackles
6
Forced fumbles
1
83.455/1796
WREli Wood
30 rec · 388 yds · 4 TD
80.552/2069
SBrevin Hamblin
42 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
89.2
Coverage
65.8
Targets allowed
12
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
140
Passer rating allowed
71.5
Missed tackles
10
74.9198/2969
LBAdonis Jackson
14 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.2
Coverage
53.6
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
99
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
72.9263/1796
CBD'Angelo Mayes
23 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.3
Coverage
71.6
Targets allowed
30
Rec allowed
17
Yards allowed
226
Passer rating allowed
77.9
Missed tackles
2
70.2435/2969
Availability reports · 8
  • J. Nelson · TEout · 2026-10-01

    Nelson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Nikko Boncore · WRout · 2026-10-07

    Boncore is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Sesi Vailahi · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Vailahi is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will be available against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Nehemiah Washington · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Washington is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Anthony Garcia · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Garcia is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Rex Haynes · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Haynes is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined whether he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Kache Kaio · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Kaio is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • McCae Hillstead · QBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Hillstead is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will be suit up against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

TROY
USU
vs
Offense
60.7
#130 of 138
QB
49.1
#138 of 138
76.6
#59 of 138
RB
68.3
#127 of 138
67.0
#121 of 138
WR
67.2
#118 of 138
69.3
#68 of 138
TE
59.9
#123 of 138
61.6
#123 of 138
OL
62.6
#119 of 138
Defense
64.1
#138 of 138
DL
68.5
#120 of 138
69.1
#112 of 138
LB
76.3
#50 of 138
72.0
#71 of 138
DB
69.5
#104 of 138
Common opponents