AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 11:30 PM
#95Away
Troy
0-0 · AVR 41.7
28p
#92Home
Utah State
0-0 · AVR 42.3
31p
TROY 42%58% USU
Spread
USU -2.8
Total
58
Moneyline
TROY+138USU-138
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TROY advantageevenUSU advantage →
TROY throw
USU +28
TROY run
USU +19
USU throw
USU protection #88TROY coverage #45
USU +7
USU run
USU +14

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USU runs
Javen Jacobs
vs
TJ Thompson
RB · USU
MLB · TROY
71.1
68.5
dead even
when USU throws
Kahanu Davis
vs
Jonathan Pennix
X · USU
CB1 · TROY
53.2
83.7
TROY +30
when TROY throws
TJ Lott
vs
Chika Ebunoha
X · TROY
CB1 · USU
51.9
71.6
USU +20
when TROY runs
Jordan Lovett
vs
John Miller
RB · TROY
MLB · USU
50.3
66.6
USU +16
over the middle
Kache Kaio
vs
Joe Lott
TE · USU
FS · TROY
51.4
62.8
TROY +11
over the middle
Jackson Worley
vs
Bryson Taylor
TE · TROY
FS · USU
38.1
62.4
USU +24

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Troy
CBJonathan Pennix
83.758/1427
DBDonnie Smith
78.9102/1427
LBTJ Thompson
68.5169/878
SMarcus Goree Jr.
67.5292/1427
LBLuke Hodge
61.8257/878
WRTJ Lott
51.9264/777
Utah State
QBBryson Barnes
71.737/308
SChika Ebunoha
71.6199/1427
RBJaven Jacobs
71.147/514
LBJohn Miller
66.6192/878
SIke Larsen
66.6317/1427
LBBronson Olevao Jr.
65.1210/878

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSU +2.895% interval: -21.1 to 26.780% interval: -14.6 to 20.2-15+20TROY wins 42%USU wins 58%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USU 28–28 TROYUSU 25–53 TROY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSU 28–49 TROY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSU 32–46 TROY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSU 35–42 TROY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSU 39–39 TROY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSU 42–35 TROY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSU 46–32 TROY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSU 49–28 TROY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSU 53–25 TROY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSU 21–49 TROY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSU 25–46 TROY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSU 28–42 TROY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSU 32–39 TROY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSU 35–35 TROY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSU 39–32 TROY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSU 42–28 TROY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSU 46–25 TROY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSU 49–21 TROY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSU 18–46 TROY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSU 21–42 TROY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSU 25–39 TROY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSU 28–35 TROY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSU 32–32 TROY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSU 35–28 TROY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSU 39–25 TROY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSU 42–21 TROY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSU 46–18 TROY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSU 14–42 TROY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSU 18–39 TROY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSU 21–35 TROY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSU 25–32 TROY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSU 28–28 TROY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSU 32–25 TROY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSU 35–21 TROY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSU 39–18 TROY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSU 42–14 TROY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSU 11–39 TROY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSU 14–35 TROY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSU 18–32 TROY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSU 21–28 TROY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSU 25–25 TROY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSU 28–21 TROY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSU 32–18 TROY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSU 35–14 TROY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSU 39–11 TROY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSU 7–35 TROY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSU 11–32 TROY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSU 14–28 TROY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSU 18–25 TROY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSU 21–21 TROY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSU 25–18 TROY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSU 28–14 TROY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSU 32–11 TROY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSU 35–7 TROY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSU 4–32 TROY neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUSU 7–28 TROY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSU 11–25 TROY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSU 14–21 TROY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSU 18–18 TROY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSU 21–14 TROY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSU 25–11 TROY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSU 28–7 TROY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSU 32–4 TROY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalTROY +28TROY +14PKUSU +14USU +28margin →