AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#129Away
Colorado State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
19p
#62Home
UTSA
0-0 · AVR 50.5
38p
CSU 9%91% UTSA
Spread
UTSA -19.3
Total
57
Moneyline
CSU+989UTSA-989
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CSU advantageevenUTSA advantage →
CSU throw
UTSA +24
CSU run
CSU backs #80UTSA linebackers #18
UTSA +40
UTSA throw
UTSA protection #91
UTSA +47
UTSA run
UTSA backs #44
UTSA +34

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CSU runs
Mel Brown
vs
Camron Cooper
RB · CSU
MLB · UTSA
55.6
81.6
UTSA +26
when UTSA runs
Will Henderson III
vs
Paul Tangelo
RB · UTSA
MLB · CSU
74.5
59.0
UTSA +16
over the middle
Juice Vereen
vs
Louie Hogan
TE · CSU
FS · UTSA
73.8
56.2
CSU +18
when UTSA throws
AJ Wilson Jr.
vs
Lemondre Joe
X · UTSA
CB1 · CSU
72.9
56.5
UTSA +16
when CSU throws
Tay Lanier
vs
Joel Rogers
X · CSU
CB1 · UTSA
52.7
76.0
UTSA +23
off the edge· hunting McCown
Jonah Miller
vs
Gabe Jones
LT · UTSA
EDGE · CSU
48.7
62.7
CSU +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Colorado State
TEJuice Vereen
73.84/287
LBPaul Tangelo
59.0310/878
DBLemondre Joe
56.5574/1427
RBMel Brown
55.6161/514
WRTay Lanier
52.7240/777
DBJahari Rogers
51.6714/1427
UTSA
LBCamron Cooper
81.644/878
LBElijah Baldwin
76.393/878
SJoel Rogers
76.0139/1427
RBWill Henderson III
74.536/514
WRAJ Wilson Jr.
72.940/777
QBOwen McCown
69.141/308

Projected margin

80% between 2 and 37
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUTSA +19.395% interval: -4.6 to 43.280% interval: 1.9 to 36.6+2+37CSU wins 9%UTSA wins 91%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTSA 39–18 CSUUTSA 35–42 CSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 39–39 CSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTSA 42–35 CSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTSA 46–32 CSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTSA 49–28 CSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTSA 53–25 CSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTSA 56–21 CSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTSA 60–18 CSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTSA 63–14 CSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTSA 32–39 CSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTSA 35–35 CSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTSA 39–32 CSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTSA 42–28 CSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTSA 46–25 CSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTSA 49–21 CSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTSA 53–18 CSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTSA 56–14 CSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTSA 60–11 CSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTSA 28–35 CSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTSA 32–32 CSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUTSA 35–28 CSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTSA 39–25 CSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTSA 42–21 CSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUTSA 46–18 CSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTSA 49–14 CSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTSA 53–11 CSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTSA 56–7 CSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTSA 25–32 CSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTSA 28–28 CSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUTSA 32–25 CSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTSA 35–21 CSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUTSA 39–18 CSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUTSA 42–14 CSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTSA 46–11 CSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTSA 49–7 CSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTSA 53–4 CSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTSA 21–28 CSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTSA 25–25 CSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTSA 28–21 CSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTSA 32–18 CSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTSA 35–14 CSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUTSA 39–11 CSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTSA 42–7 CSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTSA 46–4 CSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTSA 49–0 CSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTSA 18–25 CSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 21–21 CSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTSA 25–18 CSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTSA 28–14 CSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTSA 32–11 CSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTSA 35–7 CSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTSA 39–4 CSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTSA 42–0 CSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UTSA 14–21 CSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTSA 18–18 CSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTSA 21–14 CSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTSA 25–11 CSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTSA 28–7 CSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTSA 32–4 CSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTSA 35–0 CSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalCSU +7UTSA +7UTSA +21UTSA +35UTSA +49margin →