AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 7:00 PM
#72Away
UConn
0-0 · AVR 48.0
32p
#98Home
Air Force
0-0 · AVR 40.0
30p
CONN 55%45% AF
Spread
CONN -1.8
Total
63
Moneyline
CONN-120AF+120
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CONN advantageevenAF advantage →
CONN throw
CONN +51
CONN run
CONN +51
AF throw
CONN coverage #115CONN pass rush #12
AF +25
AF run
CONN linebackers #69
AF +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Szarka
Henry Rickels
vs
Esean Carter
LT · AF
EDGE · CONN
98.9
87.3
AF +12
when AF runs
Owen Allen
vs
K'Von Sherman
RB · AF
MLB · CONN
68.8
93.3
CONN +24
off the edge· hunting Osborne
Ty Chan
vs
Jayden Oquendo
LT · CONN
EDGE · AF
77.4
53.4
CONN +24
when AF throws
Jonah Dawson
vs
Jayden Davis
X · AF
CB1 · CONN
59.7
71.1
CONN +11
when CONN runs
Kenji Christian
vs
Isaac Hubert
RB · CONN
MLB · AF
62.7
62.5
dead even
when CONN throws
Ryder Treadway
vs
Max Mustell
X · CONN
CB1 · AF
57.0
53.7
CONN +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UConn
LBK'Von Sherman
93.35/878
DBJayden Davis
71.1209/1427
RBKenji Christian
62.788/514
WRRyder Treadway
57.0143/777
QBKalieb Osborne
56.585/308
WRShamar Porter
55.1174/777
Air Force
QBLiam Szarka
83.814/308
RBOwen Allen
68.863/514
LBIsaac Hubert
62.5248/878
WRJonah Dawson
59.7118/777
DBMax Mustell
53.7664/1427
QBMaguire Martin
53.5112/308

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCONN +1.895% interval: -25.7 to 22.180% interval: -19.2 to 15.6-19+16CONN wins 55%AF wins 45%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ AF 32–32 CONNAF 28–56 CONN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 32–53 CONN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAF 35–49 CONN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAF 39–46 CONN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAF 42–42 CONN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAF 46–39 CONN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAF 49–35 CONN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAF 53–32 CONN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAF 56–28 CONN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAF 25–53 CONN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAF 28–49 CONN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAF 32–46 CONN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAF 35–42 CONN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAF 39–39 CONN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAF 42–35 CONN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAF 46–32 CONN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAF 49–28 CONN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAF 53–25 CONN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAF 21–49 CONN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAF 25–46 CONN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAF 28–42 CONN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAF 32–39 CONN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAF 35–35 CONN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAF 39–32 CONN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAF 42–28 CONN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAF 46–25 CONN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAF 49–21 CONN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 18–46 CONN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAF 21–42 CONN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAF 25–39 CONN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAF 28–35 CONN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAF 32–32 CONN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAF 35–28 CONN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAF 39–25 CONN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAF 42–21 CONN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAF 46–18 CONN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 14–42 CONN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAF 18–39 CONN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAF 21–35 CONN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAF 25–32 CONN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAF 28–28 CONN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAF 32–25 CONN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAF 35–21 CONN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAF 39–18 CONN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAF 42–14 CONN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 11–39 CONN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAF 14–35 CONN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAF 18–32 CONN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAF 21–28 CONN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAF 25–25 CONN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAF 28–21 CONN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAF 32–18 CONN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAF 35–14 CONN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAF 39–11 CONN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 7–35 CONN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 11–32 CONN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAF 14–28 CONN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAF 18–25 CONN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAF 21–21 CONN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAF 25–18 CONN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAF 28–14 CONN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAF 32–11 CONN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAF 35–7 CONN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes84777063564942totalCONN +28CONN +14PKAF +14AF +28margin →