AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 PM
#55Away
James Madison
0-0 · AVR 53.7
28p
#72Home
UConn
0-0 · AVR 48.0
27p
JMU 52%48% CONN
Spread
JMU -0.8
Total
56
Moneyline
JMU-107CONN+107
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← JMU advantageevenCONN advantage →
JMU throw
JMU protection #122CONN coverage #115
CONN +27
JMU run
CONN linebackers #69
CONN +56
CONN throw
JMU +8
CONN run
CONN +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Osborne
Ty Chan
vs
Amar Thomas
LT · CONN
EDGE · JMU
77.4
86.0
JMU +9
when JMU runs
George Pettaway
vs
K'Von Sherman
RB · JMU
MLB · CONN
53.5
93.3
CONN +40
when CONN throws
Ryder Treadway
vs
DJ Kelly
X · CONN
CB1 · JMU
57.0
87.2
JMU +30
when CONN runs
Kenji Christian
vs
Gannon Weathersby
RB · CONN
MLB · JMU
62.7
77.9
JMU +15
when JMU throws
Za'Ron Collins
vs
Jayden Davis
X · JMU
CB1 · CONN
52.8
71.1
CONN +18
off the edge· hunting Evans
Tyler Brown
vs
Esean Carter
LT · JMU
EDGE · CONN
13.0
87.3
CONN +74

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
James Madison
CBDJ Kelly
87.226/1427
SKJ Flowe
84.649/1427
LBGannon Weathersby
77.983/878
SJoshua Prince
69.4256/1427
LBLee Johnson
64.8219/878
LBJayden Studio
58.8316/878
UConn
LBK'Von Sherman
93.35/878
DBJayden Davis
71.1209/1427
RBKenji Christian
62.788/514
WRRyder Treadway
57.0143/777
QBKalieb Osborne
56.585/308
WRShamar Porter
55.1174/777

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
James Madison
opponent
UConn
away+6.1
Southern Miss#93
+2.8away
away+2.5
Old Dominion#76
+4.2home

Projected margin

80% between -18 and 17
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKJMU +0.895% interval: -24.7 to 23.180% interval: -18.2 to 16.6-18+17JMU wins 52%CONN wins 48%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CONN 28–28 JMUCONN 25–53 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCONN 28–49 JMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCONN 32–46 JMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCONN 35–42 JMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCONN 39–39 JMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCONN 42–35 JMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCONN 46–32 JMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCONN 49–28 JMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCONN 53–25 JMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCONN 21–49 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCONN 25–46 JMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCONN 28–42 JMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCONN 32–39 JMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCONN 35–35 JMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCONN 39–32 JMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCONN 42–28 JMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCONN 46–25 JMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCONN 49–21 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCONN 18–46 JMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCONN 21–42 JMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCONN 25–39 JMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCONN 28–35 JMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCONN 32–32 JMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCONN 35–28 JMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCONN 39–25 JMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCONN 42–21 JMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCONN 46–18 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCONN 14–42 JMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCONN 18–39 JMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCONN 21–35 JMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCONN 25–32 JMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCONN 28–28 JMU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCONN 32–25 JMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCONN 35–21 JMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCONN 39–18 JMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCONN 42–14 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCONN 11–39 JMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCONN 14–35 JMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCONN 18–32 JMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCONN 21–28 JMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCONN 25–25 JMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCONN 28–21 JMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCONN 32–18 JMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCONN 35–14 JMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCONN 39–11 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCONN 7–35 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCONN 11–32 JMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCONN 14–28 JMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCONN 18–25 JMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCONN 21–21 JMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCONN 25–18 JMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCONN 28–14 JMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCONN 32–11 JMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCONN 35–7 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCONN 4–32 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCONN 7–28 JMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCONN 11–25 JMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCONN 14–21 JMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCONN 18–18 JMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCONN 21–14 JMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCONN 25–11 JMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCONN 28–7 JMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCONN 32–4 JMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalJMU +28JMU +14PKCONN +14CONN +28margin →