AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 7:00 PM
#109Away
Florida International
0-0 · AVR 36.2
17p
#78Home
South Florida
0-0 · AVR 47.2
38p
FIU 7%93% USF
Spread
USF -21.2
Total
55
Moneyline
FIU+1415USF-1415
Against the market
USF +7.7line USF -13.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FIU advantageevenUSF advantage →
FIU throw
FIU protection #99
even
FIU run
USF +23
USF throw
USF QB #111USF protection #14
FIU +8
USF run
USF backs #74
USF +19

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bradford
Ethan Green
vs
Dante Anderson
LT · USF
EDGE · FIU
97.0
74.1
USF +23
when USF throws
Mudia Reuben
vs
Shamir Sterlin
X · USF
CB1 · FIU
56.0
81.3
FIU +25
when FIU runs
Anthony Carrie
vs
MarShon Oxley
RB · FIU
MLB · USF
57.2
73.7
USF +16
when USF runs
Alvon Isaac
vs
Brayshawn Littlejohn
RB · USF
MLB · FIU
60.0
70.1
FIU +10
when FIU throws
Maguire Anderson
vs
Tavin Ward
X · FIU
CB1 · USF
51.3
70.7
USF +19
over the middle
Evan Dangler
vs
Wesley Miller
TE · USF
FS · FIU
60.6
51.1
USF +10

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida International
DBShamir Sterlin
81.379/1427
DBJai-Ayviauynn Celestine
70.2233/1427
LBBrayshawn Littlejohn
70.1144/878
QBJJ Kohl
68.047/308
DBLawrence Johnson
61.5445/1427
RBAnthony Carrie
57.2136/514
South Florida
LBMarShon Oxley
73.7114/878
STavin Ward
70.7218/1427
LBShamar Meikle
67.0191/878
CBJair Murphy
65.9337/1427
TEEvan Dangler
60.651/287
RBAlvon Isaac
60.0109/514

Projected margin

80% between 3 and 42
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSF +21.2MKT95% interval: -7 to 5280% interval: 3 to 42+3+42FIU wins 7%USF wins 93%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USF 39–18 FIUUSF 35–42 FIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSF 39–39 FIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSF 42–35 FIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSF 46–32 FIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSF 49–28 FIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSF 53–25 FIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSF 56–21 FIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSF 60–18 FIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSF 63–14 FIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSF 32–39 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSF 35–35 FIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSF 39–32 FIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSF 42–28 FIU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSF 46–25 FIU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSF 49–21 FIU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSF 53–18 FIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSF 56–14 FIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSF 60–11 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSF 28–35 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSF 32–32 FIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSF 35–28 FIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSF 39–25 FIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSF 42–21 FIU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSF 46–18 FIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSF 49–14 FIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSF 53–11 FIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSF 56–7 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSF 25–32 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSF 28–28 FIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSF 32–25 FIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSF 35–21 FIU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSF 39–18 FIU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesUSF 42–14 FIU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSF 46–11 FIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSF 49–7 FIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSF 53–4 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSF 21–28 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSF 25–25 FIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSF 28–21 FIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSF 32–18 FIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSF 35–14 FIU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUSF 39–11 FIU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSF 42–7 FIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSF 46–4 FIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSF 49–0 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSF 18–25 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSF 21–21 FIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSF 25–18 FIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSF 28–14 FIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSF 32–11 FIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSF 35–7 FIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSF 39–4 FIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSF 42–0 FIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)USF 14–21 FIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSF 18–18 FIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSF 21–14 FIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSF 25–11 FIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSF 28–7 FIU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSF 32–4 FIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSF 35–0 FIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalFIU +7USF +7USF +21USF +35USF +49margin →