CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
RGV 6.2%93.8% UTSA
Projected margin
UTSA by 24.6
Projected total
60
80% outcome range
UTSA 4 to UTSA 45
Win probability
UTSA 93.8%
FinalRGV 16 · UTSA 45model had +24.6, off by 4.4

Current team profiles

UT Rio Grande Valley
UTSA

When UT Rio Grande Valley has the ball

Passing

No comparison
RGV offense
—
UTSA defense
#60
EPA comparison
—
0.11
#60
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
RGV offense
—
UTSA defense
#93
EPA comparison
—
0.10
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
RGV offense
#83
UTSA defense
#80
Success rates
42%
#83
41%
#80
Success rate
More metrics
0.11
#62
0.06
#68
EPA / play
0.21
#60
1.15
#34
Explosiveness
—
13%
#119
Havoc

When UTSA has the ball

Passing

No comparison
RGV defense
—
UTSA offense
#78
EPA comparison
—
0.19
#78
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
RGV defense
—
UTSA offense
#12
EPA comparison
—
0.26
#12
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
RGV defense
#29
UTSA offense
#38
Success rates
41%
#29
47%
#38
Success rate
More metrics
0.05
#33
0.23
#34
EPA / play
0.18
#11
1.14
#114
Explosiveness
—
12%
#27
Havoc

Current key players

UT Rio Grande Valley
QBAidan Jakobsohn
738 yds · 6 TD · 4 INT
83.426/370
DBTyler Thomas
— tkl · — PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
73.8
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
0
80.341/1765
RBBrennan Carroll
261 yds · 1 TD · 6.5 YPC
79.343/631
DLJosh Cashiola
5 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
63.5
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
51
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
78.851/1549
DLConnor Carrigan
8 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.7
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
52
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
78.461/1549
LBSpencer Rich
51 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
86.7
Coverage
61.3
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
19
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
75.596/1054
UTSA
QBMark Wiepert
— yds · — TD · — INT
68.6178/729
RBA'Marion Peterson
194 yds · 4 TD · 7.2 YPC
89.212/1044
LBCamron Cooper
14 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.6
Coverage
72.1
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
92
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
77.5127/1796
CBZach Morris
9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.9
Coverage
75.4
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
65
Passer rating allowed
48.8
Missed tackles
1
76.4146/2969
WRDJ Allen Jr.
18 rec · 269 yds · 2 TD
76.0109/2069
LBBrandon Tucker
44 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.3
Coverage
57.1
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
16
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
73.2252/1796
Availability reports · 1
  • Bryson Donnell · RBout · 2026-10-10

    Donnell has been out of lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

RGV
UTSA
vs
Offense
83.4
#24 of 125
QB
68.6
#107 of 138
75.7
#35 of 126
RB
84.7
#11 of 138
68.8
#67 of 126
WR
68.5
#100 of 138
68.1
#43 of 124
TE
64.0
#96 of 138
64.2
#61 of 125
OL
65.0
#95 of 138
Defense
75.7
#21 of 126
DL
69.5
#113 of 138
71.3
#62 of 126
LB
73.9
#71 of 138
70.6
#79 of 126
DB
70.1
#97 of 138
Common opponents