AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 4:00 PM
#78Away
South Florida
0-0 · AVR 47.2
32p
#118Home
Army
0-0 · AVR 32.8
25p
USF 70%30% ARMY
Spread
USF -7.5
Total
57
Moneyline
USF-231ARMY+231
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USF advantageevenARMY advantage →
USF throw
USF QB #111USF protection #14
USF +28
USF run
USF backs #74
USF +59
ARMY throw
ARMY protection #8
ARMY +19
ARMY run
ARMY line #8ARMY backs #113
ARMY +12

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bradford
Ethan Green
vs
Jack Bousum
LT · USF
EDGE · ARMY
97.0
58.5
USF +39
off the edge· hunting Hellums
Kyle Kloska
vs
Jahari Grant
LT · ARMY
EDGE · USF
85.4
65.2
ARMY +20
when ARMY throws
Brady Anderson
vs
Tavin Ward
X · ARMY
CB1 · USF
60.0
70.7
USF +11
when ARMY runs
Carson Smith
vs
MarShon Oxley
RB · ARMY
MLB · USF
51.4
73.7
USF +22
when USF throws
Mudia Reuben
vs
Stephen Nnadozie
X · USF
CB1 · ARMY
56.0
59.7
ARMY +4
over the middle
Parker Poloskey
vs
Herlin Perry Jr.
TE · ARMY
FS · USF
54.8
55.5
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
South Florida
LBMarShon Oxley
73.7114/878
STavin Ward
70.7218/1427
LBShamar Meikle
67.0191/878
CBJair Murphy
65.9337/1427
TEEvan Dangler
60.651/287
RBAlvon Isaac
60.0109/514
Army
QBCale Hellums
64.257/308
WRBrady Anderson
60.0114/777
SStephen Nnadozie
59.7495/1427
TEParker Poloskey
54.892/287
CBJaydan Mayes
52.8682/1427
RBCarson Smith
51.4255/514

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
South Florida
opponent
Army
home+10.3
Temple#113
-4.8away
home+1.4
Memphis#63
-13.7away
home+4.7
Tulane#88
-5.3home
away+4.6
Florida Atlantic#108
-0.5home
away-1.7
East Carolina#77
-6.7home

Projected margin

80% between -25 and 10
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSF +7.595% interval: -31.5 to 16.480% interval: -24.9 to 9.8-25+10USF wins 70%ARMY wins 30%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USF 32–25 ARMYARMY 21–56 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARMY 25–53 USF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARMY 28–49 USF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARMY 32–46 USF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARMY 35–42 USF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARMY 39–39 USF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARMY 42–35 USF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARMY 46–32 USF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARMY 49–28 USF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARMY 18–53 USF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 21–49 USF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARMY 25–46 USF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARMY 28–42 USF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARMY 32–39 USF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARMY 35–35 USF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARMY 39–32 USF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARMY 42–28 USF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARMY 46–25 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARMY 14–49 USF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARMY 18–46 USF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARMY 21–42 USF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARMY 25–39 USF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARMY 28–35 USF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARMY 32–32 USF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARMY 35–28 USF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARMY 39–25 USF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARMY 42–21 USF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 11–46 USF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARMY 14–42 USF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARMY 18–39 USF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARMY 21–35 USF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARMY 25–32 USF neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesARMY 28–28 USF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARMY 32–25 USF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARMY 35–21 USF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARMY 39–18 USF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 7–42 USF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 11–39 USF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARMY 14–35 USF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARMY 18–32 USF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARMY 21–28 USF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARMY 25–25 USF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARMY 28–21 USF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARMY 32–18 USF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARMY 35–14 USF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 4–39 USF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 7–35 USF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARMY 11–32 USF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARMY 14–28 USF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARMY 18–25 USF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARMY 21–21 USF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARMY 25–18 USF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARMY 28–14 USF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARMY 32–11 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARMY 0–35 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARMY 4–32 USF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARMY 7–28 USF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARMY 11–25 USF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARMY 14–21 USF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARMY 18–18 USF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARMY 21–14 USF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARMY 25–11 USF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARMY 28–7 USF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalUSF +35USF +21USF +7ARMY +7ARMY +21margin →