AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 10:00 PM
#77Away
East Carolina
0-0 · AVR 47.2
27p
#76Home
Old Dominion
0-0 · AVR 47.5
29p
ECU 44%56% ODU
Spread
ODU -2.3
Total
55
Moneyline
ECU+130ODU-130
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ECU advantageevenODU advantage →
ECU throw
ECU protection #25
ODU +23
ECU run
ECU +17
ODU throw
ECU pass rush #6
ECU +33
ODU run
ECU +26

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ECU throws
Brock Spalding
vs
Zion Frink
X · ECU
CB1 · ODU
52.8
89.5
ODU +37
off the edge· hunting Griffis
Karson Jones
vs
Javen Gibson
LT · ECU
EDGE · ODU
69.2
73.0
ODU +4
when ODU runs
Devin Roche
vs
DJ Johnson Jr.
RB · ODU
MLB · ECU
64.7
73.7
ECU +9
when ECU runs
Michael Allen
vs
Jackson Forrest
RB · ECU
MLB · ODU
58.2
79.2
ODU +21
when ODU throws
TJ Johnson
vs
Kevon Merrell Jr.
X · ODU
CB1 · ECU
53.6
74.1
ECU +20
over the middle
Kanen Hamlett
vs
Mario Easterly
TE · ECU
FS · ODU
41.9
76.5
ODU +35

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
East Carolina
DBKevon Merrell Jr.
74.1163/1427
LBDJ Johnson Jr.
73.7115/878
LBCrews Law
70.2143/878
DBZyeir Gamble
66.6319/1427
DBDerrion Horsley
65.2352/1427
QBMitch Griffis
59.771/308
Old Dominion
CBZion Frink
89.514/1427
CBBrandon Crutchfield
88.021/1427
SLucas Struck
79.793/1427
LBJackson Forrest
79.264/878
RBDevin Roche
64.775/514
WRTJ Johnson
53.6203/777

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKODU +2.395% interval: -21.6 to 26.280% interval: -15.1 to 19.7-15+20ECU wins 44%ODU wins 56%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ODU 28–28 ECUODU 25–53 ECU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesODU 28–49 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesODU 32–46 ECU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesODU 35–42 ECU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesODU 39–39 ECU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesODU 42–35 ECU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesODU 46–32 ECU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesODU 49–28 ECU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesODU 53–25 ECU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesODU 21–49 ECU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesODU 25–46 ECU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesODU 28–42 ECU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesODU 32–39 ECU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesODU 35–35 ECU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesODU 39–32 ECU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesODU 42–28 ECU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesODU 46–25 ECU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesODU 49–21 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesODU 18–46 ECU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesODU 21–42 ECU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesODU 25–39 ECU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesODU 28–35 ECU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesODU 32–32 ECU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesODU 35–28 ECU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesODU 39–25 ECU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesODU 42–21 ECU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesODU 46–18 ECU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesODU 14–42 ECU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesODU 18–39 ECU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesODU 21–35 ECU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesODU 25–32 ECU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesODU 28–28 ECU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesODU 32–25 ECU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesODU 35–21 ECU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesODU 39–18 ECU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesODU 42–14 ECU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesODU 11–39 ECU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesODU 14–35 ECU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesODU 18–32 ECU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesODU 21–28 ECU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesODU 25–25 ECU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesODU 28–21 ECU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesODU 32–18 ECU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesODU 35–14 ECU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesODU 39–11 ECU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesODU 7–35 ECU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesODU 11–32 ECU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesODU 14–28 ECU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesODU 18–25 ECU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesODU 21–21 ECU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesODU 25–18 ECU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesODU 28–14 ECU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesODU 32–11 ECU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesODU 35–7 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesODU 4–32 ECU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesODU 7–28 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesODU 11–25 ECU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesODU 14–21 ECU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesODU 18–18 ECU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesODU 21–14 ECU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesODU 25–11 ECU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesODU 28–7 ECU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesODU 32–4 ECU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalECU +28ECU +14PKODU +14ODU +28margin →