AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 10:00 PM
Don Shula Award
#109Away
Florida International
0-0 · AVR 36.2
28p
#108Home
Florida Atlantic
0-0 · AVR 36.6
30p
FIU 43%57% FAU
Spread
FAU -2.7
Total
58
Moneyline
FIU+133FAU-133
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FIU advantageevenFAU advantage →
FIU throw
FIU protection #99
even
FIU run
FAU +25
FAU throw
FAU +15
FAU run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when FAU throws
Easton Messer
vs
Shamir Sterlin
X · FAU
CB1 · FIU
67.8
81.3
FIU +13
off the edge· hunting Veltkamp
Vincent Fiacable
vs
Dante Anderson
LT · FAU
EDGE · FIU
71.7
74.1
dead even
when FAU runs
Kaden Shields-Dutton
vs
Brayshawn Littlejohn
RB · FAU
MLB · FIU
60.5
70.1
FIU +10
when FIU runs
Anthony Carrie
vs
Joseph Sipp Jr.
RB · FIU
MLB · FAU
57.2
71.4
FAU +14
off the edge· hunting Kohl
Antonio Tripp Jr.
vs
Blake Burris
LT · FIU
EDGE · FAU
38.2
81.1
FAU +43
when FIU throws
Maguire Anderson
vs
Jay Crable
X · FIU
CB1 · FAU
51.3
67.8
FAU +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida International
DBShamir Sterlin
81.379/1427
DBJai-Ayviauynn Celestine
70.2233/1427
LBBrayshawn Littlejohn
70.1144/878
QBJJ Kohl
68.047/308
DBLawrence Johnson
61.5445/1427
RBAnthony Carrie
57.2136/514
Florida Atlantic
LBJoseph Sipp Jr.
71.4127/878
QBCaden Veltkamp
68.345/308
WREaston Messer
67.865/777
DBJay Crable
67.8283/1427
WRDominique Henry
66.376/777
DBJosh Roberts
60.8463/1427

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFAU +2.795% interval: -21.2 to 26.680% interval: -14.7 to 20.1-15+20FIU wins 43%FAU wins 57%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FAU 28–28 FIUFAU 25–53 FIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFAU 28–49 FIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFAU 32–46 FIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFAU 35–42 FIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFAU 39–39 FIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFAU 42–35 FIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFAU 46–32 FIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFAU 49–28 FIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFAU 53–25 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFAU 21–49 FIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFAU 25–46 FIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFAU 28–42 FIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFAU 32–39 FIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFAU 35–35 FIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFAU 39–32 FIU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFAU 42–28 FIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFAU 46–25 FIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFAU 49–21 FIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFAU 18–46 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 21–42 FIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFAU 25–39 FIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFAU 28–35 FIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFAU 32–32 FIU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFAU 35–28 FIU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFAU 39–25 FIU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFAU 42–21 FIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFAU 46–18 FIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFAU 14–42 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 18–39 FIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFAU 21–35 FIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFAU 25–32 FIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFAU 28–28 FIU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFAU 32–25 FIU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFAU 35–21 FIU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFAU 39–18 FIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFAU 42–14 FIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFAU 11–39 FIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFAU 14–35 FIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFAU 18–32 FIU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFAU 21–28 FIU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFAU 25–25 FIU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFAU 28–21 FIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFAU 32–18 FIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFAU 35–14 FIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFAU 39–11 FIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFAU 7–35 FIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFAU 11–32 FIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFAU 14–28 FIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFAU 18–25 FIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFAU 21–21 FIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFAU 25–18 FIU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFAU 28–14 FIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFAU 32–11 FIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFAU 35–7 FIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFAU 4–32 FIU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesFAU 7–28 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFAU 11–25 FIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFAU 14–21 FIU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFAU 18–18 FIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFAU 21–14 FIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFAU 25–11 FIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFAU 28–7 FIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFAU 32–4 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalFIU +28FIU +14PKFAU +14FAU +28margin →