AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 11:00 PM
#84Away
Western Michigan
0-0 · AVR 45.6
30p
#127Home
Rice
0-0 · AVR 28.9
21p
WMU 72%28% RICE
Spread
WMU -8.9
Total
50
Moneyline
WMU-259RICE+259
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WMU advantageevenRICE advantage →
WMU throw
WMU WR #137WMU protection #19
WMU +19
WMU run
WMU +49
RICE throw
WMU +50
RICE run
RICE backs #76WMU linebackers #114
WMU +22

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Lowry
Hunter Whitenack
vs
Chibby Nwajuaku
LT · WMU
EDGE · RICE
72.2
62.7
WMU +10
when RICE throws
Davis Lane
vs
Daeh McCullough
X · RICE
CB1 · WMU
48.3
78.2
WMU +30
when RICE runs
Quinton Jackson
vs
Domanick Moon
RB · RICE
MLB · WMU
65.9
56.5
RICE +9
when WMU runs
Jalen Buckley
vs
Stone Combs
RB · WMU
MLB · RICE
62.8
55.5
WMU +7
off the edge· hunting Ochoa
Peyton Farmer
vs
August Johanningsmeier
LT · RICE
EDGE · WMU
22.1
81.6
WMU +59
when WMU throws
Aveion Chenault
vs
Ahran Ogbor
X · WMU
CB1 · RICE
47.0
55.9
RICE +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Western Michigan
SDaeh McCullough
78.2111/1427
CBJarvarius Sims
77.0126/1427
SJoey Pope
68.7269/1427
RBJalen Buckley
62.887/514
LBDomanick Moon
56.5363/878
QBBroc Lowry
53.1120/308
Rice
RBQuinton Jackson
65.971/514
SAhran Ogbor
55.9595/1427
LBStone Combs
55.5381/878
QBGael Ochoa
52.6129/308
WRDavis Lane
48.3364/777
LBAustin Harnetiaux
41.9637/878

Projected margin

80% between -26 and 8
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWMU +8.995% interval: -32.8 to 1580% interval: -26.3 to 8.4-26+8WMU wins 72%RICE wins 28%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WMU 28–21 RICERICE 18–53 WMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 21–49 WMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRICE 25–46 WMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesRICE 28–42 WMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRICE 32–39 WMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRICE 35–35 WMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRICE 39–32 WMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesRICE 42–28 WMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesRICE 46–25 WMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesRICE 14–49 WMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRICE 18–46 WMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRICE 21–42 WMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRICE 25–39 WMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesRICE 28–35 WMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesRICE 32–32 WMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesRICE 35–28 WMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesRICE 39–25 WMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesRICE 42–21 WMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRICE 11–46 WMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesRICE 14–42 WMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesRICE 18–39 WMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRICE 21–35 WMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesRICE 25–32 WMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesRICE 28–28 WMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesRICE 32–25 WMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRICE 35–21 WMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRICE 39–18 WMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRICE 7–42 WMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesRICE 11–39 WMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesRICE 14–35 WMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesRICE 18–32 WMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesRICE 21–28 WMU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesRICE 25–25 WMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesRICE 28–21 WMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRICE 32–18 WMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRICE 35–14 WMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRICE 4–39 WMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRICE 7–35 WMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesRICE 11–32 WMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRICE 14–28 WMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesRICE 18–25 WMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesRICE 21–21 WMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesRICE 25–18 WMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRICE 28–14 WMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesRICE 32–11 WMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRICE 0–35 WMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 4–32 WMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRICE 7–28 WMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRICE 11–25 WMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesRICE 14–21 WMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesRICE 18–18 WMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRICE 21–14 WMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesRICE 25–11 WMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesRICE 28–7 WMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)RICE 0–28 WMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesRICE 4–25 WMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesRICE 7–21 WMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRICE 11–18 WMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesRICE 14–14 WMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRICE 18–11 WMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRICE 21–7 WMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRICE 25–4 WMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalWMU +35WMU +21WMU +7RICE +7RICE +21margin →