CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ET
#61Away
Western Michigan
1-1 · AVR 62.2
28
Final
#135Home
Rice
1-1 · AVR 48.2
21
Forecast win probability
WMU 83.3%16.7% RICE
Projected margin
WMU by 13.9
Projected total
43
80% outcome range
WMU 34 to RICE 4
Win probability
WMU 83.3%
FinalWMU 28 · RICE 21model had -13.9, off by 6.9

Current team profiles

Western Michigan
Rice

When Western Michigan has the ball

Passing

RICE defense
Higher-ranked profile
WMU offense
#92
RICE defense
#34
EPA comparison
0.13
#92
0.05
#34
Pass EPA

Rushing

WMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
WMU offense
#51
RICE defense
#102
EPA comparison
0.15
#51
0.13
#102
Rush EPA

Drive success

RICE defense
Higher-ranked profile
WMU offense
#85
RICE defense
#65
Success rates
42%
#85
40%
#65
Success rate
More metrics
0.14
#73
0.09
#84
EPA / play
1.15
#108
1.33
#112
Explosiveness
13%
#42
15%
#79
Havoc

When Rice has the ball

Passing

WMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
WMU defense
#65
RICE offense
#136
EPA comparison
0.12
#65
-0.18
#136
Pass EPA

Rushing

WMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
WMU defense
#47
RICE offense
#100
EPA comparison
0.00
#47
0.03
#100
Rush EPA

Drive success

WMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
WMU defense
#105
RICE offense
#108
Success rates
44%
#105
39%
#108
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#64
-0.03
#127
EPA / play
1.08
#16
1.11
#125
Explosiveness
13%
#109
17%
#110
Havoc

Current key players

Western Michigan
QBTrey Petty
54 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
90.815/729
LBJustyce Betts
35 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
87.8
Coverage
78.1
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
8
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
88.121/1796
WRAveion Chenault
18 rec · 272 yds · 1 TD
82.240/2069
LBDillon Moore
28 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
85.1
Coverage
68.3
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
18
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
2
80.775/1796
RBJalen Buckley
287 yds · 5 TD · 4.6 YPC
77.6122/1044
TENate Levicki
8 rec · 112 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
63.6
Run blocking
68.3
Penalties
0
75.545/1017
Availability reports · 1
  • Michael Dersa · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Dersa is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Chippewas on Saturday, October 17th.

Rice
QBJacurri Brown
403 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
77.297/729
RBCarson Morgan
54 yds · 0 TD · 7.7 YPC
87.520/1044
SDaveon Hook
3 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.4
Coverage
87.6
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
25
Passer rating allowed
52.8
Missed tackles
2
81.246/2969
SMichael Amey III
1 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.1
Coverage
77.1
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
77.5108/2969
LBBeau Barton
9 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.1
Coverage
70.8
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
3
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
75.7164/1796
WRBarry Jackson Jr.
7 rec · 102 yds · 1 TD
70.2262/2069
Availability reports · 4
  • Colten Cole · TEout · 2026-10-10

    Cole has been out of lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Davis Lane · WRQues. · 2026-09-20

    Lane is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Fresno State on Saturday.

  • Preston Zinter · TEQues. · 2026-09-20

    Zinter is laid up with a leg injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Fresno State on Saturday, September 26th.

  • James Falk · TEQues. · 2026-09-20

    Falk is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Fresno State on Saturday, September 26th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

WMU
RICE
vs
Offense
90.8
#15 of 138
QB
77.2
#74 of 138
68.5
#126 of 138
RB
83.0
#20 of 138
69.5
#88 of 138
WR
67.7
#113 of 138
75.5
#36 of 138
TE
64.6
#93 of 138
60.3
#131 of 138
OL
64.6
#99 of 138
Defense
77.6
#28 of 138
DL
73.2
#67 of 138
78.8
#28 of 138
LB
69.2
#110 of 138
68.9
#112 of 138
DB
71.2
#80 of 138
Common opponents