AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Fri Sep 25 · 11:00 PM
#82Away
Navy
0-0 · AVR 46.3
32p
#121Home
UAB
0-0 · AVR 31.9
28p
NAVY 61%39% UAB
Spread
NAVY -4.1
Total
61
Moneyline
NAVY-155UAB+155
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NAVY advantageevenUAB advantage →
NAVY throw
NAVY QB #104NAVY protection #4
NAVY +28
NAVY run
NAVY +69
UAB throw
UAB +31
UAB run
NAVY front #140NAVY linebackers #60
UAB +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Gutierrez
Ben Reiland
vs
Elijah Hall
LT · NAVY
EDGE · UAB
101.4
57.7
NAVY +44
when UAB runs
Bam McReynolds
vs
MarcAnthony Parker
RB · UAB
MLB · NAVY
57.9
74.9
NAVY +17
when NAVY throws
Joshua Guerin
vs
Guylijah Theodule
X · NAVY
CB1 · UAB
54.7
56.5
dead even
off the edge· hunting Burton
Calib Perez
vs
Griffen Willis
LT · UAB
EDGE · NAVY
50.0
57.0
NAVY +7
when UAB throws
AJ Johnson
vs
Matthew Seliga
X · UAB
CB1 · NAVY
49.4
53.9
NAVY +4
over the middle
Jordan Collins
vs
Darrell Sweeting
TE · NAVY
FS · UAB
56.9
42.1
NAVY +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Navy
LBMarcAnthony Parker
74.9107/878
LBColeman Cauley
69.1160/878
TEJordan Collins
56.979/287
WRJoshua Guerin
54.7182/777
SMatthew Seliga
53.9653/1427
LBJob Grant
53.6411/878
UAB
LBMuaaz Byard
64.0227/878
QBRyder Burton
58.276/308
RBBam McReynolds
57.9131/514
DBGuylijah Theodule
56.5577/1427
DBKris Wokomah
56.1590/1427
DBJeremiah Jordan
53.8658/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Navy
opponent
UAB
home+7.7
Temple#113
-4.0away
home+0.4
North Texas#80
-11.2away
home-1.3
Memphis#63
-12.9away
away-9.2
UTSA#62
-10.9home
away+11.0
Charlotte#135
+9.3home

Projected margin

80% between -22 and 13
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNAVY +4.195% interval: -28 to 19.880% interval: -21.5 to 13.3-21+13NAVY wins 61%UAB wins 39%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NAVY 35–28 UABUAB 25–60 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUAB 28–56 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUAB 32–53 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUAB 35–49 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUAB 39–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUAB 42–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUAB 46–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUAB 49–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUAB 53–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUAB 21–56 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUAB 25–53 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUAB 28–49 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUAB 32–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUAB 35–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUAB 39–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUAB 42–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUAB 46–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUAB 49–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUAB 18–53 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUAB 21–49 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUAB 25–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUAB 28–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUAB 32–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUAB 35–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUAB 39–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUAB 42–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUAB 46–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUAB 14–49 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUAB 18–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUAB 21–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUAB 25–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUAB 28–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUAB 32–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUAB 35–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUAB 39–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUAB 42–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUAB 11–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUAB 14–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUAB 18–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUAB 21–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUAB 25–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUAB 28–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUAB 32–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUAB 35–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUAB 39–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUAB 7–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUAB 11–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUAB 14–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUAB 18–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUAB 21–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUAB 25–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUAB 28–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUAB 32–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUAB 35–14 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUAB 4–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUAB 7–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUAB 11–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUAB 14–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUAB 18–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUAB 21–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUAB 25–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUAB 28–14 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUAB 32–11 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomes84777063564942totalNAVY +35NAVY +21NAVY +7UAB +7UAB +21margin →