AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 8:00 PM
Away
North Carolina Central
—
16p
#77Home
East Carolina
0-0 · AVR 47.2
39p
NCCU 5%95% ECU
Spread
ECU -23.3
Total
55
Moneyline
NCCU+1933ECU-1933
Margin σ
14.1

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
East Carolina
DBKevon Merrell Jr.
74.1163/1427
LBDJ Johnson Jr.
73.7115/878
LBCrews Law
70.2143/878
DBZyeir Gamble
66.6319/1427
DBDerrion Horsley
65.2352/1427
QBMitch Griffis
59.771/308

Projected margin

80% between 7 and 40
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKECU +23.395% interval: 0.3 to 46.380% interval: 6.6 to 40+7+40NCCU wins 5%ECU wins 95%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ECU 39–18 NCCUECU 35–42 NCCU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesECU 39–39 NCCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesECU 42–35 NCCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesECU 46–32 NCCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesECU 49–28 NCCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesECU 53–25 NCCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesECU 56–21 NCCU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesECU 60–18 NCCU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesECU 63–14 NCCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 32–39 NCCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesECU 35–35 NCCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesECU 39–32 NCCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesECU 42–28 NCCU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesECU 46–25 NCCU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesECU 49–21 NCCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesECU 53–18 NCCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesECU 56–14 NCCU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesECU 60–11 NCCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesECU 28–35 NCCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesECU 32–32 NCCU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesECU 35–28 NCCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesECU 39–25 NCCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesECU 42–21 NCCU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesECU 46–18 NCCU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesECU 49–14 NCCU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesECU 53–11 NCCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesECU 56–7 NCCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesECU 25–32 NCCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 28–28 NCCU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesECU 32–25 NCCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesECU 35–21 NCCU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesECU 39–18 NCCU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesECU 42–14 NCCU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesECU 46–11 NCCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesECU 49–7 NCCU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesECU 53–4 NCCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesECU 21–28 NCCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesECU 25–25 NCCU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesECU 28–21 NCCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesECU 32–18 NCCU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesECU 35–14 NCCU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesECU 39–11 NCCU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesECU 42–7 NCCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesECU 46–4 NCCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesECU 49–0 NCCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesECU 18–25 NCCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesECU 21–21 NCCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesECU 25–18 NCCU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesECU 28–14 NCCU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesECU 32–11 NCCU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesECU 35–7 NCCU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesECU 39–4 NCCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesECU 42–0 NCCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ECU 14–21 NCCU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesECU 18–18 NCCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesECU 21–14 NCCU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesECU 25–11 NCCU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesECU 28–7 NCCU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesECU 32–4 NCCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesECU 35–0 NCCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalNCCU +7ECU +7ECU +21ECU +35ECU +49margin →