AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#108Away
Florida Atlantic
0-0 · AVR 36.6
32p
#132Home
UL Monroe
0-0 · AVR 26.4
25p
FAU 68%32% ULM
Spread
FAU -6.8
Total
57
Moneyline
FAU-209ULM+209
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FAU advantageevenULM advantage →
FAU throw
FAU +54
FAU run
ULM front #130ULM linebackers #19
FAU +8
ULM throw
FAU +36
ULM run
FAU +34

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when FAU runs
Kaden Shields-Dutton
vs
Noah Flemmings
RB · FAU
MLB · ULM
60.5
86.1
ULM +26
when FAU throws
Easton Messer
vs
Jabari Tiller
X · FAU
CB1 · ULM
67.8
57.9
FAU +10
off the edge· hunting Armenta
Drew Hutchinson
vs
Blake Burris
LT · ULM
EDGE · FAU
41.3
81.1
FAU +40
over the middle
Bryce Anderson
vs
Damarius McGhee
TE · ULM
FS · FAU
61.0
57.3
ULM +4
when ULM throws
JP Coulter
vs
Jay Crable
X · ULM
CB1 · FAU
48.1
67.8
FAU +20
off the edge· hunting Veltkamp
Vincent Fiacable
vs
James Smith
LT · FAU
EDGE · ULM
71.7
42.7
FAU +29

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida Atlantic
LBJoseph Sipp Jr.
71.4127/878
QBCaden Veltkamp
68.345/308
WREaston Messer
67.865/777
DBJay Crable
67.8283/1427
WRDominique Henry
66.376/777
DBJosh Roberts
60.8463/1427
UL Monroe
LBNoah Flemmings
86.119/878
LBMarcus Ross
74.9106/878
LBJaeden Calender
67.4188/878
TEBryce Anderson
61.046/287
DBJabari Tiller
57.9535/1427
WRJP Coulter
48.1373/777

Projected margin

80% between -24 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFAU +6.895% interval: -30.8 to 17.180% interval: -24.2 to 10.5-24+11FAU wins 68%ULM wins 32%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FAU 32–25 ULMULM 21–56 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesULM 25–53 FAU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesULM 28–49 FAU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesULM 32–46 FAU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesULM 35–42 FAU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesULM 39–39 FAU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesULM 42–35 FAU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesULM 46–32 FAU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesULM 49–28 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesULM 18–53 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesULM 21–49 FAU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesULM 25–46 FAU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesULM 28–42 FAU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesULM 32–39 FAU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesULM 35–35 FAU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesULM 39–32 FAU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesULM 42–28 FAU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesULM 46–25 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesULM 14–49 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesULM 18–46 FAU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesULM 21–42 FAU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesULM 25–39 FAU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesULM 28–35 FAU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesULM 32–32 FAU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesULM 35–28 FAU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesULM 39–25 FAU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesULM 42–21 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesULM 11–46 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesULM 14–42 FAU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesULM 18–39 FAU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesULM 21–35 FAU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesULM 25–32 FAU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesULM 28–28 FAU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesULM 32–25 FAU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesULM 35–21 FAU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesULM 39–18 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesULM 7–42 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesULM 11–39 FAU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesULM 14–35 FAU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesULM 18–32 FAU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesULM 21–28 FAU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesULM 25–25 FAU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesULM 28–21 FAU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesULM 32–18 FAU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesULM 35–14 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesULM 4–39 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesULM 7–35 FAU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesULM 11–32 FAU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesULM 14–28 FAU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesULM 18–25 FAU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesULM 21–21 FAU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesULM 25–18 FAU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesULM 28–14 FAU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesULM 32–11 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesULM 0–35 FAU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesULM 4–32 FAU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesULM 7–28 FAU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesULM 11–25 FAU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesULM 14–21 FAU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesULM 18–18 FAU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesULM 21–14 FAU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesULM 25–11 FAU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesULM 28–7 FAU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalFAU +35FAU +21FAU +7ULM +7ULM +21margin →