AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 11:30 PM
Away
Houston Christian
—
19p
#80Home
North Texas
0-0 · AVR 46.7
42p
HCU 5%95% UNT
Spread
UNT -23.6
Total
61
Moneyline
HCU+2117UNT-2117
Margin σ
14.1

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
North Texas
SGraham Gillespie
73.0176/1427
QBTayven Jackson
61.064/308
LBAaron Alexander
58.9314/878
CBChase Canada
57.8537/1427
WRAndy Jean
56.0158/777
WRShandon King
55.1177/777

Projected margin

80% between 7 and 40
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNT +23.695% interval: 0.6 to 46.680% interval: 6.9 to 40.4+7+40HCU wins 5%UNT wins 95%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNT 42–21 HCUUNT 39–46 HCU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUNT 42–42 HCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNT 46–39 HCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNT 49–35 HCU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNT 53–32 HCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNT 56–28 HCU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNT 60–25 HCU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNT 63–21 HCU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNT 67–18 HCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNT 35–42 HCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNT 39–39 HCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNT 42–35 HCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNT 46–32 HCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNT 49–28 HCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNT 53–25 HCU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNT 56–21 HCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNT 60–18 HCU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNT 63–14 HCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNT 32–39 HCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNT 35–35 HCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNT 39–32 HCU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNT 42–28 HCU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNT 46–25 HCU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNT 49–21 HCU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNT 53–18 HCU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNT 56–14 HCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNT 60–11 HCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNT 28–35 HCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNT 32–32 HCU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNT 35–28 HCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNT 39–25 HCU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNT 42–21 HCU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesUNT 46–18 HCU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUNT 49–14 HCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNT 53–11 HCU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNT 56–7 HCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNT 25–32 HCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNT 28–28 HCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNT 32–25 HCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNT 35–21 HCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNT 39–18 HCU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUNT 42–14 HCU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNT 46–11 HCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNT 49–7 HCU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNT 53–4 HCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNT 21–28 HCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNT 25–25 HCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNT 28–21 HCU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNT 32–18 HCU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNT 35–14 HCU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNT 39–11 HCU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNT 42–7 HCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNT 46–4 HCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNT 49–0 HCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNT 18–25 HCU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUNT 21–21 HCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNT 25–18 HCU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNT 28–14 HCU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNT 32–11 HCU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNT 35–7 HCU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNT 39–4 HCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNT 42–0 HCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)84777063564942totalHCU +7UNT +7UNT +21UNT +35UNT +49margin →