AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Fri Oct 2 · 1:00 AM
#80Away
North Texas
0-0 · AVR 46.7
32p
#110Home
Tulsa
0-0 · AVR 35.4
27p
UNT 64%36% TLSA
Spread
UNT -5.1
Total
59
Moneyline
UNT-178TLSA+178
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNT advantageevenTLSA advantage →
UNT throw
UNT +4
UNT run
TLSA +22
TLSA throw
UNT +6
TLSA run
TLSA line #95TLSA backs #36
TLSA +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hayes
Malachi Preciado
vs
Udoka Ezeani
LT · TLSA
EDGE · UNT
69.1
70.7
dead even
when UNT runs
Brendon Haygood
vs
Chris Thompson Jr.
RB · UNT
MLB · TLSA
51.6
78.3
TLSA +27
when UNT throws
Andy Jean
vs
Elijah Green
X · UNT
CB1 · TLSA
56.0
72.9
TLSA +17
when TLSA runs
Trequan Jones
vs
Aaron Alexander
RB · TLSA
MLB · UNT
69.0
58.9
TLSA +10
when TLSA throws
Jimmy Calloway
vs
Graham Gillespie
X · TLSA
CB1 · UNT
53.4
73.0
UNT +20
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Neto Umeozulu
vs
Thomas Davis
LT · UNT
EDGE · TLSA
42.5
79.7
TLSA +37

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
North Texas
SGraham Gillespie
73.0176/1427
QBTayven Jackson
61.064/308
LBAaron Alexander
58.9314/878
CBChase Canada
57.8537/1427
WRAndy Jean
56.0158/777
WRShandon King
55.1177/777
Tulsa
LBChris Thompson Jr.
78.374/878
CBElijah Green
72.9178/1427
RBTrequan Jones
69.059/514
SZach Williams
62.2422/1427
DBDevin Robinson
62.1425/1427
LBDevin Hightower
58.9313/878

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
North Texas
opponent
Tulsa
home+14.7
Rice#127
+2.1away
home+18.1
Charlotte#135
+10.5home
away-0.8
Tulane#88
-8.4away
away-0.4
Navy#82
-8.0away
home+9.1
Florida Atlantic#108
+1.5home
away-7.2
UTSA#62
-14.7away

Projected margin

80% between -23 and 12
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNT +5.195% interval: -29 to 18.880% interval: -22.5 to 12.3-22+12UNT wins 64%TLSA wins 36%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNT 32–25 TLSATLSA 21–56 UNT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTLSA 25–53 UNT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTLSA 28–49 UNT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTLSA 32–46 UNT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTLSA 35–42 UNT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTLSA 39–39 UNT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTLSA 42–35 UNT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTLSA 46–32 UNT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTLSA 49–28 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTLSA 18–53 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTLSA 21–49 UNT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTLSA 25–46 UNT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTLSA 28–42 UNT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTLSA 32–39 UNT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTLSA 35–35 UNT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTLSA 39–32 UNT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTLSA 42–28 UNT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTLSA 46–25 UNT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTLSA 14–49 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTLSA 18–46 UNT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTLSA 21–42 UNT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTLSA 25–39 UNT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTLSA 28–35 UNT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTLSA 32–32 UNT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTLSA 35–28 UNT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTLSA 39–25 UNT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTLSA 42–21 UNT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTLSA 11–46 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTLSA 14–42 UNT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTLSA 18–39 UNT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTLSA 21–35 UNT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTLSA 25–32 UNT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTLSA 28–28 UNT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTLSA 32–25 UNT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTLSA 35–21 UNT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTLSA 39–18 UNT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTLSA 7–42 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTLSA 11–39 UNT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTLSA 14–35 UNT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTLSA 18–32 UNT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTLSA 21–28 UNT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTLSA 25–25 UNT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTLSA 28–21 UNT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTLSA 32–18 UNT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTLSA 35–14 UNT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTLSA 4–39 UNT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTLSA 7–35 UNT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTLSA 11–32 UNT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTLSA 14–28 UNT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTLSA 18–25 UNT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTLSA 21–21 UNT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTLSA 25–18 UNT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTLSA 28–14 UNT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTLSA 32–11 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTLSA 0–35 UNT neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTLSA 4–32 UNT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTLSA 7–28 UNT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTLSA 11–25 UNT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTLSA 14–21 UNT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTLSA 18–18 UNT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTLSA 21–14 UNT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTLSA 25–11 UNT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTLSA 28–7 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalUNT +35UNT +21UNT +7TLSA +7TLSA +21margin →