CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 11:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
MEM 87.1%12.9% CLT
Projected margin
MEM by 17.2
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
MEM 38 to CLT 3
Win probability
MEM 87.1%
FinalMEM 59 · CLT 8model had -17.2, off by 33.8

Current team profiles

Memphis
Charlotte

When Memphis has the ball

Passing

MEM offense
Higher-ranked profile
MEM offense
#5
CLT defense
#132
EPA comparison
0.56
#5
0.45
#132
Pass EPA

Rushing

MEM offense
Higher-ranked profile
MEM offense
#25
CLT defense
#119
EPA comparison
0.22
#25
0.16
#119
Rush EPA

Drive success

MEM offense
Higher-ranked profile
MEM offense
#17
CLT defense
#132
Success rates
50%
#17
49%
#132
Success rate
More metrics
0.28
#22
0.24
#128
EPA / play
1.26
#50
1.21
#67
Explosiveness
11%
#14
11%
#133
Havoc

When Charlotte has the ball

Passing

MEM defense
Higher-ranked profile
MEM defense
#26
CLT offense
#128
EPA comparison
0.01
#26
-0.04
#128
Pass EPA

Rushing

MEM defense
Higher-ranked profile
MEM defense
#119
CLT offense
#129
EPA comparison
0.16
#119
-0.09
#129
Rush EPA

Drive success

MEM defense
Higher-ranked profile
MEM defense
#62
CLT offense
#132
Success rates
40%
#62
34%
#132
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#72
-0.11
#134
EPA / play
1.35
#117
1.16
#104
Explosiveness
17%
#57
20%
#134
Havoc

Current key players

Memphis
QBMarcus Stokes
1371 yds · 14 TD · 3 INT
85.441/729
RBDallan Hayden
172 yds · 1 TD · 6.4 YPC
88.616/1044
LBTylon Nash
6 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.1
Coverage
73.9
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
84.348/1796
TEHunter Tipton
19 rec · 367 yds · 5 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
54.9
Run blocking
44.5
Penalties
0
77.338/1017
CBEllis Ellis Jr.
9 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
85.5
Coverage
72.4
Targets allowed
6
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
43
Passer rating allowed
73.6
Missed tackles
0
76.4147/2969
WRJermane Hayes
22 rec · 242 yds · 2 TD
74.8130/2069
Charlotte
QBCole Gonzales
802 yds · 3 TD · 7 INT
59.4308/729
LBGavin Willis
42 tkl · 5.0 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.2
Coverage
67.6
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
40
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
1
76.7147/1796
RBChance Williams
116 yds · 0 TD · 5.8 YPC
74.7181/1044
DBDy'Lon Womack
22 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
82.2
Coverage
67.4
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
123
Passer rating allowed
111.7
Missed tackles
3
73.3260/2969
TELane Wadle
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
73.8
Run blocking
66.9
Penalties
1
70.977/1017
DBDevon St. Clair
2 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Coverage
70.2
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
66.0758/2969
Availability reports · 1
  • Jeremiah Hoffman · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Hoffman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against Owls on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MEM
CLT
vs
Offense
85.4
#38 of 138
QB
59.4
#135 of 138
87.3
#5 of 138
RB
73.7
#89 of 138
68.2
#104 of 138
WR
63.8
#135 of 138
77.3
#32 of 138
TE
70.9
#56 of 138
67.2
#75 of 138
OL
63.5
#111 of 138
Defense
69.7
#111 of 138
DL
70.0
#107 of 138
75.3
#57 of 138
LB
65.9
#131 of 138
70.9
#83 of 138
DB
66.8
#127 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Memphis
opponent
Charlotte
H+25.0
UAB#137
-10.2A
H+13.1
TEM#108
-16.7A
H+10.7
ECU#94
-13.8H
A+4.1
NAVY#93
-15.1H
A+1.6
TULN#85
-17.5H