AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#63Away
Memphis
0-0 · AVR 50.4
35p
#135Home
Charlotte
0-0 · AVR 23.3
21p
MEM 84%16% CLT
Spread
MEM -14.7
Total
56
Moneyline
MEM-518CLT+518
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MEM advantageevenCLT advantage →
MEM throw
MEM QB #126MEM protection #48
MEM +16
MEM run
MEM +35
CLT throw
MEM +56
CLT run
MEM +53

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CLT throws
Jaden Barnes
vs
Ian Foster
X · CLT
CB1 · MEM
56.9
90.2
MEM +33
off the edge· hunting Noland
Brian Grant
vs
Curtis Simpson
LT · MEM
EDGE · CLT
79.2
57.5
MEM +22
when MEM throws
Brady Kluse
vs
Shamar McIntosh
X · MEM
CB1 · CLT
60.4
64.5
CLT +4
when CLT runs
Chance Williams
vs
Mike Montgomery
RB · CLT
MLB · MEM
51.5
71.4
MEM +20
off the edge· hunting Gonzales
Luke Sandy
vs
J'Mond Tapp
LT · CLT
EDGE · MEM
27.2
86.2
MEM +59
over the middle
Lane Wadle
vs
Khalil Foster
TE · CLT
FS · MEM
45.2
62.7
MEM +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Memphis
SIan Foster
90.210/1427
CBAnthony Richard Jr.
87.922/1427
SAhmere Foster
79.694/1427
LBMike Montgomery
71.4130/878
LBJayden Parrish
62.8245/878
WRBrady Kluse
60.4113/777
Charlotte
DBShamar McIntosh
64.5373/1427
WRJaden Barnes
56.9144/777
DBJameel Croft Jr.
53.9652/1427
RBChance Williams
51.5252/514
WRTank Boston
49.1337/777
QBCole Gonzales
48.2182/308

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Memphis
opponent
Charlotte
home+12.9
UAB#121
-9.3away
home+11.4
Temple#113
-10.8away
home+4.5
East Carolina#77
-12.8home
away+0.9
Tulane#88
-11.4home
away+1.3
Navy#82
-11.0home

Projected margin

80% between -32 and 3
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMEM +14.795% interval: -38.6 to 9.280% interval: -32.1 to 2.7-32+3MEM wins 84%CLT wins 16%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MEM 35–21 CLTCLT 18–60 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCLT 21–56 MEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCLT 25–53 MEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCLT 28–49 MEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCLT 32–46 MEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCLT 35–42 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCLT 39–39 MEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCLT 42–35 MEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCLT 46–32 MEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCLT 14–56 MEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLT 18–53 MEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCLT 21–49 MEM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCLT 25–46 MEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCLT 28–42 MEM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCLT 32–39 MEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCLT 35–35 MEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCLT 39–32 MEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCLT 42–28 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCLT 11–53 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLT 14–49 MEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCLT 18–46 MEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCLT 21–42 MEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCLT 25–39 MEM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCLT 28–35 MEM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCLT 32–32 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCLT 35–28 MEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCLT 39–25 MEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLT 7–49 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLT 11–46 MEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCLT 14–42 MEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCLT 18–39 MEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCLT 21–35 MEM neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCLT 25–32 MEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCLT 28–28 MEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCLT 32–25 MEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCLT 35–21 MEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLT 4–46 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLT 7–42 MEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCLT 11–39 MEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCLT 14–35 MEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCLT 18–32 MEM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCLT 21–28 MEM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCLT 25–25 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCLT 28–21 MEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCLT 32–18 MEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLT 0–42 MEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLT 4–39 MEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCLT 7–35 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCLT 11–32 MEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCLT 14–28 MEM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCLT 18–25 MEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCLT 21–21 MEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCLT 25–18 MEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCLT 28–14 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)CLT 0–35 MEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCLT 4–32 MEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCLT 7–28 MEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCLT 11–25 MEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCLT 14–21 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCLT 18–18 MEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCLT 21–14 MEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCLT 25–11 MEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalMEM +42MEM +28MEM +14PKCLT +14margin →