CFB
Model
Rankings
Games
Projections
Players
Model
Research
Search teams & games
/
2026
WK
7
All games
Week 5 · Sat Oct 3
· 6:00 PM ET
#242
Away
Texas Southern
1-3
· AVR 29.1
10
10
at
Final
#90
Home
Florida Atlantic
3-1
· AVR 56.1
66
66
Forecast win probability
TXSO 0.7%
99.3% FAU
Projected margin
FAU by 40.7
Projected total
63
80% outcome range
FAU 20 to FAU 62
Win probability
FAU 99.3%
Final
TXSO 10 · FAU 66
model had +40.7, off by 15.3
Current team profiles
Texas Southern
Florida Atlantic
When Texas Southern has the ball
Passing
No comparison
TXSO offense
—
FAU defense
#103
EPA comparison
—
0.27
#103
Pass EPA
Rushing
No comparison
TXSO offense
—
FAU defense
#112
EPA comparison
—
0.15
#112
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
TXSO offense
#62
FAU defense
#63
Success rates
44%
#62
40%
#63
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#22
0.18
#117
EPA / play
0.23
#20
1.47
#137
Explosiveness
—
16%
#72
Havoc
When Florida Atlantic has the ball
Passing
No comparison
TXSO defense
—
FAU offense
#60
EPA comparison
—
0.26
#60
Pass EPA
Rushing
No comparison
TXSO defense
—
FAU offense
#72
EPA comparison
—
0.10
#72
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
TXSO defense
#95
FAU offense
#53
Success rates
47%
#95
45%
#53
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#94
0.18
#59
EPA / play
0.21
#74
1.21
#89
Explosiveness
—
15%
#74
Havoc
Current key players
Texas Southern
RB
Athean Renfro Jr.
449 yds · 3 TD · 5.4 YPC
78.5
48/631
K
Miguel Arana III
6/9 FG · 0%
78.3
12/416
DB
Joel Williams
7 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.9
Coverage
73.1
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
73.7
204/1765
RB
Ri'Jon Hammond
45 yds · 1 TD · 5.6 YPC
73.2
116/631
DL
Jordan Thompson
18 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
70.0
Pressures
11
Pass-rush snaps
95
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
72.7
187/1549
RB
Jacob Washington
135 yds · 1 TD · 5.6 YPC
71.4
144/631
Florida Atlantic
QB
Caden Veltkamp
1425 yds · 12 TD · 2 INT
85.5
39/729
DB
Wallace Foster IV
4 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.8
Coverage
84.8
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
1
83.0
37/2969
DB
Tyclean Luman
4 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.7
Missed tackles
1
77.8
101/2969
WR
Kelby Valsin
40 rec · 512 yds · 5 TD
75.9
111/2069
DB
JK Johnson
8 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
45.5
Coverage
82.2
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
51.3
Missed tackles
3
75.2
186/2969
WR
Easton Messer
30 rec · 438 yds · 3 TD
74.8
127/2069
Position units
Position-unit comparison
TXSO
Texas Southern
FAU
Florida Atlantic
vs
Offense
61.6
#102
of 125
QB
Quarterback
85.5
#36
of 138
75.8
#30
of 126
RB
Running backs
73.0
#97
of 138
66.5
#91
of 126
WR
Receivers
74.1
#42
of 138
65.9
#57
of 124
TE
Tight ends
58.9
#128
of 138
56.2
#121
of 125
OL
Offensive line
70.4
#50
of 138
Defense
66.4
#107
of 126
DL
Defensive line
75.3
#51
of 138
64.8
#115
of 126
LB
Linebackers
65.1
#134
of 138
67.0
#115
of 126
DB
Secondary
75.6
#27
of 138
Common opponents