AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#113Away
Temple
0-0 · AVR 34.9
25p
#78Home
South Florida
0-0 · AVR 47.2
35p
TEM 24%76% USF
Spread
USF -10.3
Total
60
Moneyline
TEM+313USF-313
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TEM advantageevenUSF advantage →
TEM throw
TEM WR #46TEM protection #113
USF +5
TEM run
USF +28
USF throw
USF QB #111USF protection #14
USF +28
USF run
USF backs #74
USF +58

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bradford
Ethan Green
vs
Quante Gillians
LT · USF
EDGE · TEM
97.0
50.2
USF +47
when TEM throws
JoJo Bermudez
vs
Tavin Ward
X · TEM
CB1 · USF
64.8
70.7
USF +6
when TEM runs
Hunter Smith
vs
MarShon Oxley
RB · TEM
MLB · USF
55.8
73.7
USF +18
when USF throws
Mudia Reuben
vs
Adrian Laing
X · USF
CB1 · TEM
56.0
72.1
TEM +16
when USF runs
Alvon Isaac
vs
Curly Ordonez
RB · USF
MLB · TEM
60.0
61.6
dead even
over the middle
Peter Clarke
vs
Herlin Perry Jr.
TE · TEM
FS · USF
65.5
55.5
TEM +10

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Temple
CBAdrian Laing
72.1188/1427
TEPeter Clarke
65.523/287
WRJoJo Bermudez
64.884/777
WRColin Chase
63.295/777
CBBryson Goodwin
61.7436/1427
LBCurly Ordonez
61.6260/878
South Florida
LBMarShon Oxley
73.7114/878
STavin Ward
70.7218/1427
LBShamar Meikle
67.0191/878
CBJair Murphy
65.9337/1427
TEEvan Dangler
60.651/287
RBAlvon Isaac
60.0109/514

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Temple
opponent
South Florida
away-11.4
Memphis#63
+1.4home
away-9.4
East Carolina#77
-1.7away
home+4.0
UAB#121
+11.7home
home+4.8
Army#118
+7.5away

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSF +10.395% interval: -13.6 to 34.280% interval: -7.1 to 27.7-7+28TEM wins 24%USF wins 76%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USF 35–28 TEMUSF 32–53 TEM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUSF 35–49 TEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSF 39–46 TEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSF 42–42 TEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSF 46–39 TEM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSF 49–35 TEM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSF 53–32 TEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSF 56–28 TEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSF 60–25 TEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSF 28–49 TEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSF 32–46 TEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSF 35–42 TEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSF 39–39 TEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSF 42–35 TEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSF 46–32 TEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSF 49–28 TEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSF 53–25 TEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSF 56–21 TEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSF 25–46 TEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSF 28–42 TEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSF 32–39 TEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSF 35–35 TEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSF 39–32 TEM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSF 42–28 TEM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSF 46–25 TEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSF 49–21 TEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSF 53–18 TEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSF 21–42 TEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSF 25–39 TEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSF 28–35 TEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSF 32–32 TEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSF 35–28 TEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSF 39–25 TEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSF 42–21 TEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSF 46–18 TEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSF 49–14 TEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSF 18–39 TEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSF 21–35 TEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSF 25–32 TEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSF 28–28 TEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSF 32–25 TEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSF 35–21 TEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSF 39–18 TEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSF 42–14 TEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSF 46–11 TEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSF 14–35 TEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSF 18–32 TEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSF 21–28 TEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSF 25–25 TEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSF 28–21 TEM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSF 32–18 TEM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSF 35–14 TEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSF 39–11 TEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSF 42–7 TEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSF 11–32 TEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSF 14–28 TEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSF 18–25 TEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSF 21–21 TEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSF 25–18 TEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSF 28–14 TEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSF 32–11 TEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSF 35–7 TEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSF 39–4 TEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomes84777063564942totalTEM +21TEM +7USF +7USF +21USF +35margin →