AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#135Away
Charlotte
0-0 · AVR 23.3
21p
#80Home
North Texas
0-0 · AVR 46.7
39p
CLT 11%89% UNT
Spread
UNT -18.1
Total
60
Moneyline
CLT+838UNT-838
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CLT advantageevenUNT advantage →
CLT throw
UNT +19
CLT run
UNT +26
UNT throw
UNT +37
UNT run
UNT +17

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CLT throws
Jaden Barnes
vs
Graham Gillespie
X · CLT
CB1 · UNT
56.9
73.0
UNT +16
when UNT throws
Andy Jean
vs
Shamar McIntosh
X · UNT
CB1 · CLT
56.0
64.5
CLT +8
when CLT runs
Chance Williams
vs
Aaron Alexander
RB · CLT
MLB · UNT
51.5
58.9
UNT +7
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Neto Umeozulu
vs
Curtis Simpson
LT · UNT
EDGE · CLT
42.5
57.5
CLT +15
when UNT runs
Brendon Haygood
vs
Kadin Schmitz
RB · UNT
MLB · CLT
51.6
46.6
UNT +5
off the edge· hunting Gonzales
Luke Sandy
vs
Udoka Ezeani
LT · CLT
EDGE · UNT
27.2
70.7
UNT +43

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Charlotte
DBShamar McIntosh
64.5373/1427
WRJaden Barnes
56.9144/777
DBJameel Croft Jr.
53.9652/1427
RBChance Williams
51.5252/514
WRTank Boston
49.1337/777
QBCole Gonzales
48.2182/308
North Texas
SGraham Gillespie
73.0176/1427
QBTayven Jackson
61.064/308
LBAaron Alexander
58.9314/878
CBChase Canada
57.8537/1427
WRAndy Jean
56.0158/777
WRShandon King
55.1177/777

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Charlotte
opponent
North Texas
away-9.3
UAB#121
+11.2home
away-10.5
Tulsa#110
+5.1away
home-11.4
Tulane#88
-0.8away
home-11.0
Navy#82
-0.4away

Projected margin

80% between 1 and 36
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNT +18.195% interval: -5.8 to 4280% interval: 0.7 to 35.5+1+36CLT wins 11%UNT wins 89%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNT 42–21 CLTUNT 39–46 CLT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNT 42–42 CLT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNT 46–39 CLT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNT 49–35 CLT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNT 53–32 CLT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNT 56–28 CLT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNT 60–25 CLT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNT 63–21 CLT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNT 67–18 CLT neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUNT 35–42 CLT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNT 39–39 CLT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNT 42–35 CLT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNT 46–32 CLT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNT 49–28 CLT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNT 53–25 CLT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNT 56–21 CLT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNT 60–18 CLT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNT 63–14 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNT 32–39 CLT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNT 35–35 CLT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNT 39–32 CLT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNT 42–28 CLT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNT 46–25 CLT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNT 49–21 CLT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNT 53–18 CLT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNT 56–14 CLT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNT 60–11 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNT 28–35 CLT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNT 32–32 CLT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNT 35–28 CLT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNT 39–25 CLT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNT 42–21 CLT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNT 46–18 CLT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNT 49–14 CLT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNT 53–11 CLT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNT 56–7 CLT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNT 25–32 CLT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNT 28–28 CLT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNT 32–25 CLT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNT 35–21 CLT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNT 39–18 CLT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNT 42–14 CLT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNT 46–11 CLT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNT 49–7 CLT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNT 53–4 CLT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNT 21–28 CLT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNT 25–25 CLT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNT 28–21 CLT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNT 32–18 CLT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNT 35–14 CLT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNT 39–11 CLT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNT 42–7 CLT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNT 46–4 CLT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNT 49–0 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNT 18–25 CLT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNT 21–21 CLT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNT 25–18 CLT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNT 28–14 CLT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNT 32–11 CLT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNT 35–7 CLT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNT 39–4 CLT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNT 42–0 CLT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)84777063564942totalCLT +7UNT +7UNT +21UNT +35UNT +49margin →