CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
CLT 1.5%98.5% UNT
Projected margin
UNT by 31.4
Projected total
65
80% outcome range
UNT 11 to UNT 51
Win probability
UNT 98.5%
FinalCLT 10 · UNT 50model had +31.4, off by 8.6

Current team profiles

Charlotte
North Texas

When Charlotte has the ball

Passing

UNT defense
Higher-ranked profile
CLT offense
#128
UNT defense
#98
EPA comparison
-0.04
#128
0.25
#98
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNT defense
Higher-ranked profile
CLT offense
#129
UNT defense
#56
EPA comparison
-0.09
#129
0.02
#56
Rush EPA

Drive success

UNT defense
Higher-ranked profile
CLT offense
#132
UNT defense
#78
Success rates
34%
#132
41%
#78
Success rate
More metrics
-0.11
#134
0.08
#76
EPA / play
1.16
#104
1.24
#81
Explosiveness
20%
#134
17%
#52
Havoc

When North Texas has the ball

Passing

UNT offense
Higher-ranked profile
CLT defense
#132
UNT offense
#12
EPA comparison
0.45
#132
0.49
#12
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNT offense
Higher-ranked profile
CLT defense
#119
UNT offense
#55
EPA comparison
0.16
#119
0.14
#55
Rush EPA

Drive success

UNT offense
Higher-ranked profile
CLT defense
#132
UNT offense
#30
Success rates
49%
#132
48%
#30
Success rate
More metrics
0.24
#128
0.30
#18
EPA / play
1.21
#67
1.33
#21
Explosiveness
11%
#133
10%
#12
Havoc

Current key players

Charlotte
QBCole Gonzales
802 yds · 3 TD · 7 INT
59.4308/729
LBGavin Willis
42 tkl · 5.0 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.2
Coverage
67.6
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
40
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
1
76.7147/1796
RBChance Williams
116 yds · 0 TD · 5.8 YPC
74.7181/1044
DBDy'Lon Womack
22 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
82.2
Coverage
67.4
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
123
Passer rating allowed
111.7
Missed tackles
3
73.3260/2969
TELane Wadle
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
73.8
Run blocking
66.9
Penalties
1
70.977/1017
DBDevon St. Clair
2 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Coverage
70.2
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
66.0758/2969
Availability reports · 1
  • Jeremiah Hoffman · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Hoffman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against Owls on Saturday, October 17th.

North Texas
QBTayven Jackson
1510 yds · 10 TD · 4 INT
90.223/729
TEJerious Singletary
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
81.9
Penalties
0
82.819/1017
RBJahiem White
571 yds · 8 TD · 6.7 YPC
81.263/1044
WRTJ Chukwurah
7 rec · 92 yds · 1 TD
80.454/2069
CBKeshawn Davila
8 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.5
Coverage
79.7
Targets allowed
6
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
16
Passer rating allowed
16.7
Missed tackles
4
78.488/2969
WRKyle Koch
11 rec · 163 yds · 2 TD
78.074/2069
Availability reports · 4
  • Corri Milliner · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Milliner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Navy on October 24th.

  • James Tyre · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Tyre is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Navy on October 24th.

  • Drew Clemens · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Clemens is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Navy on October 24th.

  • Victor Aderungboye · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Aderungboye is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Navy on October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

CLT
UNT
vs
Offense
59.4
#135 of 138
QB
90.2
#22 of 138
73.7
#89 of 138
RB
77.8
#48 of 138
63.8
#135 of 138
WR
77.0
#27 of 138
70.9
#56 of 138
TE
82.8
#19 of 138
63.5
#111 of 138
OL
64.9
#96 of 138
Defense
70.0
#107 of 138
DL
76.3
#42 of 138
65.9
#131 of 138
LB
76.4
#49 of 138
66.8
#127 of 138
DB
74.2
#43 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Charlotte
opponent
North Texas
A-10.2
UAB#137
+15.4H
A-15.3
TLSA#98
+1.0A
H-17.5
TULN#85
-2.5A
H-15.1
NAVY#93
-0.1A