AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
The Bones Trophy
#121Away
UAB
0-0 · AVR 31.9
24p
#63Home
Memphis
0-0 · AVR 50.4
37p
UAB 19%81% MEM
Spread
MEM -12.9
Total
60
Moneyline
UAB+425MEM-425
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UAB advantageevenMEM advantage →
UAB throw
MEM +38
UAB run
MEM +19
MEM throw
MEM QB #126MEM protection #48
MEM +13
MEM run
MEM +23

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UAB throws
AJ Johnson
vs
Ian Foster
X · UAB
CB1 · MEM
49.4
90.2
MEM +41
off the edge· hunting Noland
Brian Grant
vs
Elijah Hall
LT · MEM
EDGE · UAB
79.2
57.7
MEM +22
off the edge· hunting Burton
Calib Perez
vs
J'Mond Tapp
LT · UAB
EDGE · MEM
50.0
86.2
MEM +36
when UAB runs
Bam McReynolds
vs
Mike Montgomery
RB · UAB
MLB · MEM
57.9
71.4
MEM +14
when MEM runs
Manny Covey
vs
Muaaz Byard
RB · MEM
MLB · UAB
55.7
64.0
UAB +8
when MEM throws
Brady Kluse
vs
Guylijah Theodule
X · MEM
CB1 · UAB
60.4
56.5
MEM +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UAB
LBMuaaz Byard
64.0227/878
QBRyder Burton
58.276/308
RBBam McReynolds
57.9131/514
DBGuylijah Theodule
56.5577/1427
DBKris Wokomah
56.1590/1427
DBJeremiah Jordan
53.8658/1427
Memphis
SIan Foster
90.210/1427
CBAnthony Richard Jr.
87.922/1427
SAhmere Foster
79.694/1427
LBMike Montgomery
71.4130/878
LBJayden Parrish
62.8245/878
WRBrady Kluse
60.4113/777

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UAB
opponent
Memphis
away-4.0
Temple#113
+11.4home
home-5.9
East Carolina#77
+4.5home
away-11.7
South Florida#78
-1.4away
home-4.1
Navy#82
+1.3away
home+9.3
Charlotte#135
+14.7away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMEM +12.995% interval: -11 to 36.880% interval: -4.5 to 30.3-4+30UAB wins 19%MEM wins 81%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MEM 39–25 UABMEM 35–49 UAB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMEM 39–46 UAB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMEM 42–42 UAB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMEM 46–39 UAB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMEM 49–35 UAB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMEM 53–32 UAB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMEM 56–28 UAB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMEM 60–25 UAB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMEM 63–21 UAB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMEM 32–46 UAB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMEM 35–42 UAB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMEM 39–39 UAB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMEM 42–35 UAB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMEM 46–32 UAB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMEM 49–28 UAB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMEM 53–25 UAB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMEM 56–21 UAB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMEM 60–18 UAB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMEM 28–42 UAB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMEM 32–39 UAB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMEM 35–35 UAB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMEM 39–32 UAB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMEM 42–28 UAB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMEM 46–25 UAB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMEM 49–21 UAB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMEM 53–18 UAB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMEM 56–14 UAB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMEM 25–39 UAB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMEM 28–35 UAB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMEM 32–32 UAB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMEM 35–28 UAB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMEM 39–25 UAB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMEM 42–21 UAB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMEM 46–18 UAB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMEM 49–14 UAB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMEM 53–11 UAB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMEM 21–35 UAB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMEM 25–32 UAB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMEM 28–28 UAB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMEM 32–25 UAB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMEM 35–21 UAB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMEM 39–18 UAB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMEM 42–14 UAB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMEM 46–11 UAB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMEM 49–7 UAB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMEM 18–32 UAB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMEM 21–28 UAB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMEM 25–25 UAB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMEM 28–21 UAB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMEM 32–18 UAB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMEM 35–14 UAB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMEM 39–11 UAB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMEM 42–7 UAB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMEM 46–4 UAB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMEM 14–28 UAB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMEM 18–25 UAB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMEM 21–21 UAB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMEM 25–18 UAB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMEM 28–14 UAB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMEM 32–11 UAB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMEM 35–7 UAB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMEM 39–4 UAB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMEM 42–0 UAB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes84777063564942totalUAB +14PKMEM +14MEM +28MEM +42margin →