Passing
TLSA offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TLSA offense
- #108
- NAVY defense
- #109
EPA comparison
0.09
#108
0.29
#109
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
TLSA 68.2%31.8% NAVY
- Projected margin
- TLSA by 7.2
- Projected total
- 48
- 80% outcome range
- TLSA 27 to NAVY 11
- Win probability
- TLSA 68.2%
FinalTLSA 26 · NAVY 34model had -7.2, off by 15.2
Current team profiles
Tulsa
NavyWhen Tulsa has the ball
Rushing
TLSA offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TLSA offense
- #21
- NAVY defense
- #41
EPA comparison
0.23
#21
-0.01
#41
Rush EPA
Drive success
NAVY defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TLSA offense
- #117
- NAVY defense
- #34
Success rates
39%
#117
36%
#34
Success rate
More metrics
0.14
#74
0.09
#83
EPA / play
1.22
#78
1.38
#126
Explosiveness
15%
#69
13%
#113
Havoc
When Navy has the ball
Passing
TLSA defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TLSA defense
- #82
- NAVY offense
- #119
EPA comparison
0.18
#82
0.04
#119
Pass EPA
Rushing
NAVY offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TLSA defense
- #41
- NAVY offense
- #12
EPA comparison
-0.01
#41
0.26
#12
Rush EPA
Drive success
NAVY offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TLSA defense
- #74
- NAVY offense
- #30
Success rates
41%
#74
48%
#30
Success rate
More metrics
0.03
#54
0.20
#48
EPA / play
1.14
#29
1.14
#112
Explosiveness
13%
#116
14%
#50
Havoc
Current key players
TulsaQBDexter Williams II
340 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
64.2222/729
RBSeth Davis
90 yds · 1 TD · 10.0 YPC
88.714/1044
TEJackson Shockley
1 rec · 22 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 48.5
- Run blocking
- 65.5
- Penalties
- 0
87.18/1017
DBDevin Robinson
19 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 80.6
- Coverage
- 76.0
- Targets allowed
- 13
- Rec allowed
- 7
- Yards allowed
- 62
- Passer rating allowed
- 92.5
- Missed tackles
- 3
79.077/2969
LBDax Collins
39 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 2.5 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 84.8
- Coverage
- 58.3
- Pressures
- 12
- Pass-rush snaps
- 24
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 0
76.7146/1796
CBCaldra Williford
16 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 73.4
- Coverage
- 74.2
- Targets allowed
- 5
- Rec allowed
- 5
- Yards allowed
- 65
- Passer rating allowed
- 158.3
- Missed tackles
- 2
75.4178/2969
Availability reports · 2
- Jimmy Calloway · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Calloway is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against the Owls on Saturday, Octob
- Grayson Tempest · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Tempest is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against the Owls on Saturday, Octobe
NavyQBBraxton Woodson
71 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
75.7107/729
LBMarcAnthony Parker
33 tkl · 6.0 TFL · 4.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 81.8
- Coverage
- 65.5
- Pressures
- 8
- Pass-rush snaps
- 22
- Missed tackles
- 5
- Forced fumbles
- 0
80.970/1796
LBColeman Cauley
31 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 81.4
- Coverage
- 69.0
- Pressures
- 9
- Pass-rush snaps
- 27
- Missed tackles
- 7
- Forced fumbles
- 0
78.6106/1796
RBJacob Williams
34 yds · 0 TD · 6.8 YPC
71.6269/1044
WRTruman Brasfield
2 rec · 107 yds · 1 TD
69.1301/2069
WRCharles Robinson
6 rec · 50 yds · 1 TD
68.9311/2069
Availability reports · 4
- Landon Walker · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Walker is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Roadrunners on Saturday, October 17th.
- Jake Norris · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Norris is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against UTSA on Saturday, October 17th.
- Merrick Barlow · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Barlow is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Roadrunners on Saturday, October 17th.
- Jeremiah Chalmers · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Chalmers is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Roadrunners on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
TLSATulsa
NAVYNavy
vs
Offense
64.2
#121 of 138
QB
Quarterback
75.7
#80 of 138
84.4
#13 of 138
RB
Running backs
69.1
#124 of 138
67.0
#120 of 138
WR
Receivers
68.9
#96 of 138
87.1
#8 of 138
TE
Tight ends
59.6
#125 of 138
68.5
#64 of 138
OL
Offensive line
67.5
#73 of 138
Defense
73.1
#68 of 138
DL
Defensive line
70.3
#104 of 138
71.4
#93 of 138
LB
Linebackers
78.5
#34 of 138
74.5
#41 of 138
DB
Secondary
63.4
#138 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Tulsa
opponent
Navy
Hhome+3.3
FAUFlorida Atlantic#88-8.0Aaway
Aaway-12.8
UTSAUTSA#73-7.7Aaway
Hhome-2.8
ARMYArmy#53-0.4Nneutral
Hhome-1.0
UNTNorth Texas#64+0.1Hhome
Hhome+15.3
CLTCharlotte#184+15.1Aaway