AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 7:30 PM
#110Away
Tulsa
0-0 · AVR 35.4
24p
#82Home
Navy
0-0 · AVR 46.3
32p
TLSA 29%71% NAVY
Spread
NAVY -8.0
Total
55
Moneyline
TLSA+245NAVY-245
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TLSA advantageevenNAVY advantage →
TLSA throw
TLSA +26
TLSA run
TLSA line #95TLSA backs #36
TLSA +15
NAVY throw
NAVY QB #104NAVY protection #4
even
NAVY run
NAVY +43

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Gutierrez
Ben Reiland
vs
Thomas Davis
LT · NAVY
EDGE · TLSA
101.4
79.7
NAVY +22
when TLSA runs
Trequan Jones
vs
MarcAnthony Parker
RB · TLSA
MLB · NAVY
69.0
74.9
NAVY +6
when NAVY throws
Joshua Guerin
vs
Elijah Green
X · NAVY
CB1 · TLSA
54.7
72.9
TLSA +18
off the edge· hunting Hayes
Malachi Preciado
vs
Griffen Willis
LT · TLSA
EDGE · NAVY
69.1
57.0
TLSA +12
over the middle
Jordan Collins
vs
Korbyn Green
TE · NAVY
FS · TLSA
56.9
61.5
TLSA +5
when TLSA throws
Jimmy Calloway
vs
Matthew Seliga
X · TLSA
CB1 · NAVY
53.4
53.9
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Tulsa
LBChris Thompson Jr.
78.374/878
CBElijah Green
72.9178/1427
RBTrequan Jones
69.059/514
SZach Williams
62.2422/1427
DBDevin Robinson
62.1425/1427
LBDevin Hightower
58.9313/878
Navy
LBMarcAnthony Parker
74.9107/878
LBColeman Cauley
69.1160/878
TEJordan Collins
56.979/287
WRJoshua Guerin
54.7182/777
SMatthew Seliga
53.9653/1427
LBJob Grant
53.6411/878

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Tulsa
opponent
Navy
home-5.1
North Texas#80
+0.4home
away-14.7
UTSA#62
-9.2away
home+4.4
Army#118
+7.4neutral
home+1.5
Florida Atlantic#108
+2.0away
home+10.5
Charlotte#135
+11.0away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 25
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNAVY +8.095% interval: -15.9 to 31.980% interval: -9.4 to 25.4-9+25TLSA wins 29%NAVY wins 71%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NAVY 32–25 TLSANAVY 28–49 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNAVY 32–46 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNAVY 35–42 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNAVY 39–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNAVY 42–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNAVY 46–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNAVY 49–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNAVY 53–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNAVY 56–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNAVY 25–46 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNAVY 28–42 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNAVY 32–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNAVY 35–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNAVY 39–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNAVY 42–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNAVY 46–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNAVY 49–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNAVY 53–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNAVY 21–42 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNAVY 25–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNAVY 28–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNAVY 32–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNAVY 35–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNAVY 39–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNAVY 42–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNAVY 46–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNAVY 49–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNAVY 18–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNAVY 21–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNAVY 25–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNAVY 28–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNAVY 32–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNAVY 35–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNAVY 39–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNAVY 42–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNAVY 46–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNAVY 14–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNAVY 18–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNAVY 21–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNAVY 25–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNAVY 28–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNAVY 32–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNAVY 35–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNAVY 39–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNAVY 42–7 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNAVY 11–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNAVY 14–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNAVY 18–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNAVY 21–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNAVY 25–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNAVY 28–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNAVY 32–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNAVY 35–7 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNAVY 39–4 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNAVY 7–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNAVY 11–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNAVY 14–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNAVY 18–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNAVY 21–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNAVY 25–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNAVY 28–7 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNAVY 32–4 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNAVY 35–0 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalTLSA +21TLSA +7NAVY +7NAVY +21NAVY +35margin →