CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 7 · Thu Oct 15 · 7:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
ECU 65.8%34.2% UAB
Projected margin
ECU by 6.3
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
ECU 25 to UAB 12
Win probability
ECU 65.8%

Current team profiles

East Carolina
UAB

When East Carolina has the ball

Passing

UAB defense
Higher-ranked profile
ECU offense
#92
UAB defense
#32
EPA comparison
0.13
#92
0.03
#32
Pass EPA

Rushing

UAB defense
Higher-ranked profile
ECU offense
#116
UAB defense
#102
EPA comparison
-0.02
#116
0.13
#102
Rush EPA

Drive success

UAB defense
Higher-ranked profile
ECU offense
#119
UAB defense
#110
Success rates
38%
#119
45%
#110
Success rate
More metrics
0.04
#110
0.06
#70
EPA / play
1.22
#75
1.03
#6
Explosiveness
19%
#128
15%
#84
Havoc

When UAB has the ball

Passing

ECU defense
Higher-ranked profile
ECU defense
#7
UAB offense
#130
EPA comparison
-0.10
#7
-0.06
#130
Pass EPA

Rushing

ECU defense
Higher-ranked profile
ECU defense
#41
UAB offense
#79
EPA comparison
-0.01
#41
0.09
#79
Rush EPA

Drive success

ECU defense
Higher-ranked profile
ECU defense
#11
UAB offense
#81
Success rates
34%
#11
43%
#81
Success rate
More metrics
-0.07
#15
0.02
#116
EPA / play
1.24
#82
1.14
#111
Explosiveness
21%
#12
16%
#88
Havoc

Current key players

East Carolina
QBMitch Griffis
425 yds · 3 TD · 2 INT
56.8332/729
DBMyles Pollard
9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.2
Coverage
88.3
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
41
Passer rating allowed
69.8
Missed tackles
1
83.733/2969
RBAshton Gray
152 yds · 0 TD · 4.8 YPC
83.646/1044
LBDJ Johnson Jr.
29 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
85.0
Coverage
75.6
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
20
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
80.873/1796
LBLJ Porter
3 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
63.8
Coverage
64.7
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
77.1139/1796
DBAyden Duncanson
6 tkl · 0 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
40.2
Coverage
89.2
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
110
Passer rating allowed
69.0
Missed tackles
3
77.0123/2969
Availability reports · 1
  • Jeremiah Melvin · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Melvin is dealing with a back injury, and it is unknown if he will face UAB on Friday.

UAB
QBRyder Burton
791 yds · 4 TD · 4 INT
74.3118/729
LBMarlin Dean
21 tkl · 8.0 TFL · 5.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
66.9
Coverage
59.9
Pressures
17
Pass-rush snaps
101
Missed tackles
8
Forced fumbles
2
78.7100/1796
DBGuylijah Theodule
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
69.3
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
4
Passer rating allowed
83.3
Missed tackles
0
78.391/2969
WRTy Mims
14 rec · 223 yds · 1 TD
78.073/2069
TESean Persson
1 rec · 12 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
67.5
Run blocking
73.1
Penalties
0
75.446/1017
RBBam McReynolds
260 yds · 4 TD · 4.8 YPC
74.1190/1044
Availability reports · 1
  • Antonio Ferguson · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ferguson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Pirates on Thursday, October 15th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

ECU
UAB
vs
Offense
56.8
#137 of 138
QB
74.3
#85 of 138
78.5
#44 of 138
RB
70.6
#116 of 138
72.5
#52 of 138
WR
71.2
#71 of 138
62.0
#106 of 138
TE
75.4
#37 of 138
61.1
#127 of 138
OL
63.0
#114 of 138
Defense
77.0
#36 of 138
DL
66.7
#131 of 138
77.7
#39 of 138
LB
68.9
#114 of 138
75.0
#33 of 138
DB
70.8
#86 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

East Carolina
opponent
UAB
A-10.7
MEM#70
-25.0A
H+5.1
TEM#108
-9.2A
H-5.9
USF#76
-20.2A
A+13.8
CLT#184
+10.2H