AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Thu Oct 15 · 11:30 PM
#77Away
East Carolina
0-0 · AVR 47.2
32p
#121Home
UAB
0-0 · AVR 31.9
26p
ECU 66%34% UAB
Spread
ECU -5.9
Total
58
Moneyline
ECU-194UAB+194
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ECU advantageevenUAB advantage →
ECU throw
ECU protection #25
ECU +34
ECU run
ECU +41
UAB throw
ECU pass rush #6
ECU +30
UAB run
ECU +37

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Burton
Calib Perez
vs
Jasiyah Robinson
LT · UAB
EDGE · ECU
50.0
93.2
ECU +43
when UAB runs
Bam McReynolds
vs
DJ Johnson Jr.
RB · UAB
MLB · ECU
57.9
73.7
ECU +16
off the edge· hunting Griffis
Karson Jones
vs
Elijah Hall
LT · ECU
EDGE · UAB
69.2
57.7
ECU +12
when UAB throws
AJ Johnson
vs
Kevon Merrell Jr.
X · UAB
CB1 · ECU
49.4
74.1
ECU +25
when ECU runs
Michael Allen
vs
Muaaz Byard
RB · ECU
MLB · UAB
58.2
64.0
UAB +6
when ECU throws
Brock Spalding
vs
Guylijah Theodule
X · ECU
CB1 · UAB
52.8
56.5
UAB +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
East Carolina
DBKevon Merrell Jr.
74.1163/1427
LBDJ Johnson Jr.
73.7115/878
LBCrews Law
70.2143/878
DBZyeir Gamble
66.6319/1427
DBDerrion Horsley
65.2352/1427
QBMitch Griffis
59.771/308
UAB
LBMuaaz Byard
64.0227/878
QBRyder Burton
58.276/308
RBBam McReynolds
57.9131/514
DBGuylijah Theodule
56.5577/1427
DBKris Wokomah
56.1590/1427
DBJeremiah Jordan
53.8658/1427

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
East Carolina
opponent
UAB
home+9.4
Temple#113
-4.0away
home+1.7
South Florida#78
-11.7away
away-4.5
Memphis#63
-12.9away
away+12.8
Charlotte#135
+9.3home

Projected margin

80% between -23 and 12
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKECU +5.995% interval: -29.8 to 1880% interval: -23.3 to 11.5-23+12ECU wins 66%UAB wins 34%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ECU 32–25 UABUAB 21–56 ECU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUAB 25–53 ECU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUAB 28–49 ECU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUAB 32–46 ECU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUAB 35–42 ECU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUAB 39–39 ECU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUAB 42–35 ECU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUAB 46–32 ECU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUAB 49–28 ECU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUAB 18–53 ECU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUAB 21–49 ECU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUAB 25–46 ECU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUAB 28–42 ECU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUAB 32–39 ECU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUAB 35–35 ECU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUAB 39–32 ECU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUAB 42–28 ECU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUAB 46–25 ECU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUAB 14–49 ECU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUAB 18–46 ECU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUAB 21–42 ECU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUAB 25–39 ECU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUAB 28–35 ECU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUAB 32–32 ECU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUAB 35–28 ECU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUAB 39–25 ECU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUAB 42–21 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUAB 11–46 ECU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUAB 14–42 ECU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUAB 18–39 ECU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUAB 21–35 ECU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUAB 25–32 ECU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUAB 28–28 ECU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUAB 32–25 ECU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUAB 35–21 ECU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUAB 39–18 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUAB 7–42 ECU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUAB 11–39 ECU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUAB 14–35 ECU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUAB 18–32 ECU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUAB 21–28 ECU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUAB 25–25 ECU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUAB 28–21 ECU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUAB 32–18 ECU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUAB 35–14 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUAB 4–39 ECU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUAB 7–35 ECU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUAB 11–32 ECU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUAB 14–28 ECU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUAB 18–25 ECU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUAB 21–21 ECU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUAB 25–18 ECU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUAB 28–14 ECU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUAB 32–11 ECU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUAB 0–35 ECU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUAB 4–32 ECU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUAB 7–28 ECU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUAB 11–25 ECU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUAB 14–21 ECU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUAB 18–18 ECU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUAB 21–14 ECU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUAB 25–11 ECU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUAB 28–7 ECU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalECU +35ECU +21ECU +7UAB +7UAB +21margin →