AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Fri Oct 16 · 11:30 PM
#63Away
Memphis
0-0 · AVR 50.4
28p
#88Home
Tulane
0-0 · AVR 44.4
27p
MEM 53%47% TULN
Spread
MEM -0.9
Total
55
Moneyline
MEM-112TULN+112
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MEM advantageevenTULN advantage →
MEM throw
MEM QB #126MEM protection #48
TULN +8
MEM run
MEM +20
TULN throw
TULN QB #139TULN WR #63
MEM +43
TULN run
TULN backs #82
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Chriss-Gremillion
John Bock II
vs
J'Mond Tapp
LT · TULN
EDGE · MEM
70.5
86.2
MEM +16
when TULN throws
Anthony Brown-Stephens
vs
Ian Foster
X · TULN
CB1 · MEM
59.8
90.2
MEM +30
when MEM throws
Brady Kluse
vs
Macho Stevenson
X · MEM
CB1 · TULN
60.4
81.9
TULN +22
off the edge· hunting Noland
Brian Grant
vs
Derrick Shepard Jr.
LT · MEM
EDGE · TULN
79.2
57.2
MEM +22
when TULN runs
Jamauri McClure
vs
Mike Montgomery
RB · TULN
MLB · MEM
55.6
71.4
MEM +16
when MEM runs
Manny Covey
vs
Chris Rodgers
RB · MEM
MLB · TULN
55.7
68.3
TULN +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Memphis
SIan Foster
90.210/1427
CBAnthony Richard Jr.
87.922/1427
SAhmere Foster
79.694/1427
LBMike Montgomery
71.4130/878
LBJayden Parrish
62.8245/878
WRBrady Kluse
60.4113/777
Tulane
CBMacho Stevenson
81.971/1427
LBChris Rodgers
68.3172/878
SDorion Jackson
66.4324/1427
TEDawson Johnson
61.242/287
WRAnthony Brown-Stephens
59.8117/777
DBKajuan Banks
59.7492/1427

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Memphis
opponent
Tulane
home+13.7
Army#118
+5.3away
away-1.4
South Florida#78
-4.7away
away+14.7
Charlotte#135
+11.4away

Projected margin

80% between -18 and 17
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMEM +0.995% interval: -24.8 to 2380% interval: -18.3 to 16.5-18+17MEM wins 53%TULN wins 47%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TULN 28–28 MEMTULN 25–53 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 28–49 MEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTULN 32–46 MEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTULN 35–42 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTULN 39–39 MEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTULN 42–35 MEM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTULN 46–32 MEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTULN 49–28 MEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTULN 53–25 MEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTULN 21–49 MEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTULN 25–46 MEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTULN 28–42 MEM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTULN 32–39 MEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTULN 35–35 MEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTULN 39–32 MEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTULN 42–28 MEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTULN 46–25 MEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTULN 49–21 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 18–46 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTULN 21–42 MEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTULN 25–39 MEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTULN 28–35 MEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTULN 32–32 MEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTULN 35–28 MEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTULN 39–25 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTULN 42–21 MEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTULN 46–18 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 14–42 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTULN 18–39 MEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTULN 21–35 MEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTULN 25–32 MEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTULN 28–28 MEM neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTULN 32–25 MEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTULN 35–21 MEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTULN 39–18 MEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTULN 42–14 MEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTULN 11–39 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTULN 14–35 MEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTULN 18–32 MEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTULN 21–28 MEM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTULN 25–25 MEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTULN 28–21 MEM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTULN 32–18 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTULN 35–14 MEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTULN 39–11 MEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTULN 7–35 MEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTULN 11–32 MEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTULN 14–28 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTULN 18–25 MEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTULN 21–21 MEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTULN 25–18 MEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTULN 28–14 MEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTULN 32–11 MEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTULN 35–7 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 4–32 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 7–28 MEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTULN 11–25 MEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTULN 14–21 MEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTULN 18–18 MEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTULN 21–14 MEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTULN 25–11 MEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTULN 28–7 MEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTULN 32–4 MEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalMEM +28MEM +14PKTULN +14TULN +28margin →