AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 PM
#108Away
Florida Atlantic
0-0 · AVR 36.6
29p
#118Home
Army
0-0 · AVR 32.8
28p
FAU 51%49% ARMY
Spread
FAU -0.5
Total
57
Moneyline
FAU-104ARMY+104
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FAU advantageevenARMY advantage →
FAU throw
FAU +51
FAU run
FAU +44
ARMY throw
ARMY protection #8
ARMY +13
ARMY run
ARMY line #8ARMY backs #113
ARMY +10

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hellums
Kyle Kloska
vs
Blake Burris
LT · ARMY
EDGE · FAU
85.4
81.1
ARMY +4
off the edge· hunting Veltkamp
Vincent Fiacable
vs
Jack Bousum
LT · FAU
EDGE · ARMY
71.7
58.5
FAU +13
when ARMY throws
Brady Anderson
vs
Jay Crable
X · ARMY
CB1 · FAU
60.0
67.8
FAU +8
when FAU throws
Easton Messer
vs
Stephen Nnadozie
X · FAU
CB1 · ARMY
67.8
59.7
FAU +8
when ARMY runs
Carson Smith
vs
Joseph Sipp Jr.
RB · ARMY
MLB · FAU
51.4
71.4
FAU +20
over the middle
Parker Poloskey
vs
Damarius McGhee
TE · ARMY
FS · FAU
54.8
57.3
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida Atlantic
LBJoseph Sipp Jr.
71.4127/878
QBCaden Veltkamp
68.345/308
WREaston Messer
67.865/777
DBJay Crable
67.8283/1427
WRDominique Henry
66.376/777
DBJosh Roberts
60.8463/1427
Army
QBCale Hellums
64.257/308
WRBrady Anderson
60.0114/777
SStephen Nnadozie
59.7495/1427
TEParker Poloskey
54.892/287
CBJaydan Mayes
52.8682/1427
RBCarson Smith
51.4255/514

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Florida Atlantic
opponent
Army
home+8.1
Rice#127
+0.2away
home-2.0
Navy#82
-7.4neutral
away-1.5
Tulsa#110
-4.4away
home-4.6
South Florida#78
-7.5home
away-8.8
East Carolina#77
-6.7home

Projected margin

80% between -18 and 17
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFAU +0.595% interval: -24.4 to 23.580% interval: -17.8 to 16.9-18+17FAU wins 51%ARMY wins 49%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ARMY 28–28 FAUARMY 25–53 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARMY 28–49 FAU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARMY 32–46 FAU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARMY 35–42 FAU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARMY 39–39 FAU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARMY 42–35 FAU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARMY 46–32 FAU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARMY 49–28 FAU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARMY 53–25 FAU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARMY 21–49 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 25–46 FAU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARMY 28–42 FAU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARMY 32–39 FAU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARMY 35–35 FAU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARMY 39–32 FAU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARMY 42–28 FAU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARMY 46–25 FAU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARMY 49–21 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARMY 18–46 FAU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARMY 21–42 FAU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARMY 25–39 FAU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARMY 28–35 FAU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARMY 32–32 FAU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARMY 35–28 FAU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARMY 39–25 FAU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARMY 42–21 FAU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARMY 46–18 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 14–42 FAU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARMY 18–39 FAU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARMY 21–35 FAU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARMY 25–32 FAU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARMY 28–28 FAU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesARMY 32–25 FAU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARMY 35–21 FAU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARMY 39–18 FAU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARMY 42–14 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 11–39 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 14–35 FAU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARMY 18–32 FAU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARMY 21–28 FAU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARMY 25–25 FAU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARMY 28–21 FAU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARMY 32–18 FAU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARMY 35–14 FAU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARMY 39–11 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 7–35 FAU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 11–32 FAU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARMY 14–28 FAU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARMY 18–25 FAU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARMY 21–21 FAU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARMY 25–18 FAU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARMY 28–14 FAU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARMY 32–11 FAU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARMY 35–7 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARMY 4–32 FAU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARMY 7–28 FAU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARMY 11–25 FAU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARMY 14–21 FAU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARMY 18–18 FAU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARMY 21–14 FAU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARMY 25–11 FAU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARMY 28–7 FAU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARMY 32–4 FAU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalFAU +28FAU +14PKARMY +14ARMY +28margin →