AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#110Away
Tulsa
0-0 · AVR 35.4
27p
#127Home
Rice
0-0 · AVR 28.9
25p
TLSA 56%44% RICE
Spread
TLSA -2.1
Total
52
Moneyline
TLSA-127RICE+127
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TLSA advantageevenRICE advantage →
TLSA throw
TLSA +20
TLSA run
TLSA line #95TLSA backs #36
TLSA +25
RICE throw
TLSA +29
RICE run
RICE backs #76
TLSA +26

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when RICE runs
Quinton Jackson
vs
Chris Thompson Jr.
RB · RICE
MLB · TLSA
65.9
78.3
TLSA +12
off the edge· hunting Hayes
Malachi Preciado
vs
Chibby Nwajuaku
LT · TLSA
EDGE · RICE
69.1
62.7
TLSA +6
when TLSA runs
Trequan Jones
vs
Stone Combs
RB · TLSA
MLB · RICE
69.0
55.5
TLSA +14
when RICE throws
Davis Lane
vs
Elijah Green
X · RICE
CB1 · TLSA
48.3
72.9
TLSA +25
when TLSA throws
Jimmy Calloway
vs
Ahran Ogbor
X · TLSA
CB1 · RICE
53.4
55.9
dead even
off the edge· hunting Ochoa
Peyton Farmer
vs
Thomas Davis
LT · RICE
EDGE · TLSA
22.1
79.7
TLSA +58

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Tulsa
LBChris Thompson Jr.
78.374/878
CBElijah Green
72.9178/1427
RBTrequan Jones
69.059/514
SZach Williams
62.2422/1427
DBDevin Robinson
62.1425/1427
LBDevin Hightower
58.9313/878
Rice
RBQuinton Jackson
65.971/514
SAhran Ogbor
55.9595/1427
LBStone Combs
55.5381/878
QBGael Ochoa
52.6129/308
WRDavis Lane
48.3364/777
LBAustin Harnetiaux
41.9637/878

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Tulsa
opponent
Rice
home-5.1
North Texas#80
-14.7away
home+1.5
Florida Atlantic#108
-8.1away
home+4.4
Army#118
-0.2home
away-8.4
Tulane#88
-8.0home
away-14.7
UTSA#62
-14.3home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTLSA +2.195% interval: -26 to 21.880% interval: -19.5 to 15.3-19+15TLSA wins 56%RICE wins 44%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ RICE 25–25 TLSARICE 21–49 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 25–46 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRICE 28–42 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRICE 32–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRICE 35–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesRICE 39–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRICE 42–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesRICE 46–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesRICE 49–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesRICE 18–46 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRICE 21–42 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesRICE 25–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRICE 28–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesRICE 32–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesRICE 35–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesRICE 39–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesRICE 42–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesRICE 46–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRICE 14–42 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesRICE 18–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesRICE 21–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesRICE 25–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesRICE 28–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesRICE 32–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesRICE 35–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRICE 39–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRICE 42–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRICE 11–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesRICE 14–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesRICE 18–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesRICE 21–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesRICE 25–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesRICE 28–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesRICE 32–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRICE 35–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRICE 39–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRICE 7–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRICE 11–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesRICE 14–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRICE 18–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesRICE 21–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesRICE 25–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesRICE 28–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesRICE 32–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesRICE 35–7 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRICE 4–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRICE 7–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRICE 11–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRICE 14–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesRICE 18–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesRICE 21–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesRICE 25–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesRICE 28–7 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesRICE 32–4 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesRICE 0–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRICE 4–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesRICE 7–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesRICE 11–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRICE 14–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRICE 18–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesRICE 21–7 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRICE 25–4 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRICE 28–0 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes70635649423528totalTLSA +28TLSA +14PKRICE +14RICE +28margin →