AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#128Away
Kent State
0-0 · AVR 27.2
22p
#78Home
South Florida
0-0 · AVR 47.2
38p
KENT 13%87% USF
Spread
USF -16.2
Total
59
Moneyline
KENT+649USF-649
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KENT advantageevenUSF advantage →
KENT throw
KENT QB #55KENT protection #112
USF +9
KENT run
USF +37
USF throw
USF QB #111USF protection #14
USF +22
USF run
USF backs #74
USF +43

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bradford
Ethan Green
vs
Darian Blachewicz
LT · USF
EDGE · KENT
97.0
65.9
USF +31
when KENT runs
Jakorion Caffey
vs
MarShon Oxley
RB · KENT
MLB · USF
53.3
73.7
USF +20
when KENT throws
Da'Realyst Clark
vs
Tavin Ward
X · KENT
CB1 · USF
44.9
70.7
USF +26
when USF throws
Mudia Reuben
vs
Davion Pritchard
X · USF
CB1 · KENT
56.0
59.4
KENT +3
when USF runs
Alvon Isaac
vs
Hayden Dawahare
RB · USF
MLB · KENT
60.0
53.9
USF +6
over the middle
Terik Mulder
vs
Herlin Perry Jr.
TE · KENT
FS · USF
47.9
55.5
USF +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kent State
QBDru DeShields
64.556/308
DBDavion Pritchard
59.4498/1427
LBHayden Dawahare
53.9407/878
RBJakorion Caffey
53.3196/514
SClinton Robinson
49.2795/1427
TETerik Mulder
47.9148/287
South Florida
LBMarShon Oxley
73.7114/878
STavin Ward
70.7218/1427
LBShamar Meikle
67.0191/878
CBJair Murphy
65.9337/1427
TEEvan Dangler
60.651/287
RBAlvon Isaac
60.0109/514

Projected margin

80% between -1 and 34
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSF +16.295% interval: -7.7 to 40.280% interval: -1.1 to 33.6-1+34KENT wins 13%USF wins 87%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USF 35–21 KENTUSF 32–46 KENT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSF 35–42 KENT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSF 39–39 KENT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSF 42–35 KENT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSF 46–32 KENT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSF 49–28 KENT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSF 53–25 KENT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSF 56–21 KENT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSF 60–18 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSF 28–42 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSF 32–39 KENT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSF 35–35 KENT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSF 39–32 KENT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSF 42–28 KENT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSF 46–25 KENT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSF 49–21 KENT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSF 53–18 KENT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSF 56–14 KENT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSF 25–39 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSF 28–35 KENT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSF 32–32 KENT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSF 35–28 KENT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSF 39–25 KENT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSF 42–21 KENT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSF 46–18 KENT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSF 49–14 KENT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSF 53–11 KENT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSF 21–35 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSF 25–32 KENT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSF 28–28 KENT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSF 32–25 KENT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSF 35–21 KENT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSF 39–18 KENT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSF 42–14 KENT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSF 46–11 KENT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSF 49–7 KENT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSF 18–32 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSF 21–28 KENT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSF 25–25 KENT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSF 28–21 KENT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSF 32–18 KENT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSF 35–14 KENT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSF 39–11 KENT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSF 42–7 KENT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSF 46–4 KENT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSF 14–28 KENT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSF 18–25 KENT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSF 21–21 KENT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSF 25–18 KENT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSF 28–14 KENT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSF 32–11 KENT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSF 35–7 KENT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSF 39–4 KENT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSF 42–0 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSF 11–25 KENT neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUSF 14–21 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSF 18–18 KENT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSF 21–14 KENT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSF 25–11 KENT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSF 28–7 KENT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSF 32–4 KENT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSF 35–0 KENT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalKENT +14PKUSF +14USF +28USF +42margin →