AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#62Away
UTSA
0-0 · AVR 50.5
30p
#88Home
Tulane
0-0 · AVR 44.4
26p
UTSA 61%39% TULN
Spread
UTSA -3.9
Total
57
Moneyline
UTSA-157TULN+157
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UTSA advantageevenTULN advantage →
UTSA throw
UTSA protection #91
UTSA +19
UTSA run
UTSA backs #44
UTSA +17
TULN throw
TULN QB #139TULN WR #63
UTSA +9
TULN run
TULN backs #82UTSA linebackers #18
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UTSA throws
AJ Wilson Jr.
vs
Macho Stevenson
X · UTSA
CB1 · TULN
72.9
81.9
TULN +9
when UTSA runs
Will Henderson III
vs
Chris Rodgers
RB · UTSA
MLB · TULN
74.5
68.3
UTSA +6
when TULN runs
Jamauri McClure
vs
Camron Cooper
RB · TULN
MLB · UTSA
55.6
81.6
UTSA +26
when TULN throws
Anthony Brown-Stephens
vs
Joel Rogers
X · TULN
CB1 · UTSA
59.8
76.0
UTSA +16
off the edge· hunting Chriss-Gremillion
John Bock II
vs
Eddy Smith
LT · TULN
EDGE · UTSA
70.5
62.9
TULN +8
over the middle
Dawson Johnson
vs
Louie Hogan
TE · TULN
FS · UTSA
61.2
56.2
TULN +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UTSA
LBCamron Cooper
81.644/878
LBElijah Baldwin
76.393/878
SJoel Rogers
76.0139/1427
RBWill Henderson III
74.536/514
WRAJ Wilson Jr.
72.940/777
QBOwen McCown
69.141/308
Tulane
CBMacho Stevenson
81.971/1427
LBChris Rodgers
68.3172/878
SDorion Jackson
66.4324/1427
TEDawson Johnson
61.242/287
WRAnthony Brown-Stephens
59.8117/777
DBKajuan Banks
59.7492/1427

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UTSA
opponent
Tulane
home+6.6
South Florida#78
-4.7away
home+7.2
North Texas#80
+0.8home
away+14.3
Rice#127
+8.0away
home+14.7
Tulsa#110
+8.4home

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUTSA +3.995% interval: -27.8 to 2080% interval: -21.3 to 13.5-21+14UTSA wins 61%TULN wins 39%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTSA 32–25 TULNTULN 21–56 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTULN 25–53 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTULN 28–49 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTULN 32–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTULN 35–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTULN 39–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTULN 42–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTULN 46–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTULN 49–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTULN 18–53 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTULN 21–49 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTULN 25–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTULN 28–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTULN 32–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTULN 35–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTULN 39–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTULN 42–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTULN 46–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTULN 14–49 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTULN 18–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTULN 21–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTULN 25–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTULN 28–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTULN 32–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTULN 35–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTULN 39–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTULN 42–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTULN 11–46 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTULN 14–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTULN 18–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTULN 21–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTULN 25–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTULN 28–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTULN 32–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTULN 35–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTULN 39–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTULN 7–42 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTULN 11–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTULN 14–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTULN 18–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTULN 21–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTULN 25–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTULN 28–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTULN 32–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTULN 35–14 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTULN 4–39 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTULN 7–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTULN 11–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTULN 14–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTULN 18–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTULN 21–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTULN 25–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTULN 28–14 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTULN 32–11 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTULN 0–35 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTULN 4–32 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTULN 7–28 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTULN 11–25 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTULN 14–21 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTULN 18–18 UTSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTULN 21–14 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTULN 25–11 UTSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTULN 28–7 UTSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalUTSA +35UTSA +21UTSA +7TULN +7TULN +21margin →