AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#118Away
Army
0-0 · AVR 32.8
21p
#63Home
Memphis
0-0 · AVR 50.4
34p
ARMY 18%82% MEM
Spread
MEM -13.7
Total
55
Moneyline
ARMY+460MEM-460
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARMY advantageevenMEM advantage →
ARMY throw
ARMY protection #8
MEM +18
ARMY run
ARMY line #8ARMY backs #113
MEM +5
MEM throw
MEM QB #126MEM protection #48
MEM +16
MEM run
MEM +38

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hellums
Kyle Kloska
vs
J'Mond Tapp
LT · ARMY
EDGE · MEM
85.4
86.2
dead even
when ARMY throws
Brady Anderson
vs
Ian Foster
X · ARMY
CB1 · MEM
60.0
90.2
MEM +30
off the edge· hunting Noland
Brian Grant
vs
Jack Bousum
LT · MEM
EDGE · ARMY
79.2
58.5
MEM +21
when ARMY runs
Carson Smith
vs
Mike Montgomery
RB · ARMY
MLB · MEM
51.4
71.4
MEM +20
when MEM throws
Brady Kluse
vs
Stephen Nnadozie
X · MEM
CB1 · ARMY
60.4
59.7
dead even
over the middle
Parker Poloskey
vs
Khalil Foster
TE · ARMY
FS · MEM
54.8
62.7
MEM +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Army
QBCale Hellums
64.257/308
WRBrady Anderson
60.0114/777
SStephen Nnadozie
59.7495/1427
TEParker Poloskey
54.892/287
CBJaydan Mayes
52.8682/1427
RBCarson Smith
51.4255/514
Memphis
SIan Foster
90.210/1427
CBAnthony Richard Jr.
87.922/1427
SAhmere Foster
79.694/1427
LBMike Montgomery
71.4130/878
LBJayden Parrish
62.8245/878
WRBrady Kluse
60.4113/777

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Army
opponent
Memphis
away-4.8
Temple#113
+11.4home
home-6.7
East Carolina#77
+4.5home
neutral-7.4
Navy#82
+1.3away
home-5.3
Tulane#88
+0.9away
home-7.5
South Florida#78
-1.4away

Projected margin

80% between -4 and 31
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMEM +13.795% interval: -10.2 to 37.680% interval: -3.7 to 31.1-4+31ARMY wins 18%MEM wins 82%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MEM 35–21 ARMYMEM 32–46 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMEM 35–42 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMEM 39–39 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMEM 42–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMEM 46–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMEM 49–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMEM 53–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMEM 56–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMEM 60–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMEM 28–42 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMEM 32–39 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMEM 35–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMEM 39–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMEM 42–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMEM 46–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMEM 49–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMEM 53–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMEM 56–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMEM 25–39 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMEM 28–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMEM 32–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMEM 35–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMEM 39–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMEM 42–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMEM 46–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMEM 49–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMEM 53–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMEM 21–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMEM 25–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMEM 28–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMEM 32–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMEM 35–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMEM 39–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMEM 42–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMEM 46–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMEM 49–7 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMEM 18–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMEM 21–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMEM 25–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMEM 28–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMEM 32–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMEM 35–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMEM 39–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMEM 42–7 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMEM 46–4 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMEM 14–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMEM 18–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMEM 21–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMEM 25–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMEM 28–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMEM 32–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMEM 35–7 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMEM 39–4 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMEM 42–0 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMEM 11–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMEM 14–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMEM 18–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMEM 21–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMEM 25–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMEM 28–7 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMEM 32–4 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMEM 35–0 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalARMY +14PKMEM +14MEM +28MEM +42margin →