AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#113Away
Temple
0-0 · AVR 34.9
23p
#77Home
East Carolina
0-0 · AVR 47.2
32p
TEM 26%74% ECU
Spread
ECU -9.4
Total
55
Moneyline
TEM+291ECU-291
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TEM advantageevenECU advantage →
TEM throw
TEM WR #46TEM protection #113
ECU +34
TEM run
ECU +62
ECU throw
ECU protection #25
ECU +37
ECU run
ECU +54

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TEM throws
JoJo Bermudez
vs
Kevon Merrell Jr.
X · TEM
CB1 · ECU
64.8
74.1
ECU +9
off the edge· hunting Smolik
Eric King
vs
Jasiyah Robinson
LT · TEM
EDGE · ECU
37.2
93.2
ECU +56
when TEM runs
Hunter Smith
vs
DJ Johnson Jr.
RB · TEM
MLB · ECU
55.8
73.7
ECU +18
when ECU throws
Brock Spalding
vs
Adrian Laing
X · ECU
CB1 · TEM
52.8
72.1
TEM +19
over the middle
Peter Clarke
vs
Tavius Horne Jr.
TE · TEM
FS · ECU
65.5
56.8
TEM +9
when ECU runs
Michael Allen
vs
Curly Ordonez
RB · ECU
MLB · TEM
58.2
61.6
TEM +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Temple
CBAdrian Laing
72.1188/1427
TEPeter Clarke
65.523/287
WRJoJo Bermudez
64.884/777
WRColin Chase
63.295/777
CBBryson Goodwin
61.7436/1427
LBCurly Ordonez
61.6260/878
East Carolina
DBKevon Merrell Jr.
74.1163/1427
LBDJ Johnson Jr.
73.7115/878
LBCrews Law
70.2143/878
DBZyeir Gamble
66.6319/1427
DBDerrion Horsley
65.2352/1427
QBMitch Griffis
59.771/308

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Temple
opponent
East Carolina
away-10.3
South Florida#78
+1.7home
home+7.4
Rice#127
+14.4home
away-11.4
Memphis#63
-4.5away
home+10.8
Charlotte#135
+12.8away
home+4.8
Army#118
+6.7away
home+4.0
UAB#121
+5.9away

Projected margin

80% between -8 and 27
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKECU +9.495% interval: -14.5 to 33.380% interval: -8 to 26.8-8+27TEM wins 26%ECU wins 74%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ECU 32–25 TEMECU 28–49 TEM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesECU 32–46 TEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesECU 35–42 TEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesECU 39–39 TEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesECU 42–35 TEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesECU 46–32 TEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesECU 49–28 TEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesECU 53–25 TEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesECU 56–21 TEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 25–46 TEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesECU 28–42 TEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesECU 32–39 TEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesECU 35–35 TEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesECU 39–32 TEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesECU 42–28 TEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesECU 46–25 TEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesECU 49–21 TEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesECU 53–18 TEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesECU 21–42 TEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 25–39 TEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesECU 28–35 TEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesECU 32–32 TEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesECU 35–28 TEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesECU 39–25 TEM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesECU 42–21 TEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesECU 46–18 TEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesECU 49–14 TEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesECU 18–39 TEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 21–35 TEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesECU 25–32 TEM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesECU 28–28 TEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesECU 32–25 TEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesECU 35–21 TEM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesECU 39–18 TEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesECU 42–14 TEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesECU 46–11 TEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesECU 14–35 TEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 18–32 TEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesECU 21–28 TEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesECU 25–25 TEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesECU 28–21 TEM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesECU 32–18 TEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesECU 35–14 TEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesECU 39–11 TEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesECU 42–7 TEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesECU 11–32 TEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesECU 14–28 TEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesECU 18–25 TEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesECU 21–21 TEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesECU 25–18 TEM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesECU 28–14 TEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesECU 32–11 TEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesECU 35–7 TEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesECU 39–4 TEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesECU 7–28 TEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesECU 11–25 TEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesECU 14–21 TEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesECU 18–18 TEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesECU 21–14 TEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesECU 25–11 TEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesECU 28–7 TEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesECU 32–4 TEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesECU 35–0 TEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalTEM +21TEM +7ECU +7ECU +21ECU +35margin →