AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#121Away
UAB
0-0 · AVR 31.9
25p
#78Home
South Florida
0-0 · AVR 47.2
37p
UAB 21%79% USF
Spread
USF -11.7
Total
63
Moneyline
UAB+377USF-377
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UAB advantageevenUSF advantage →
UAB throw
even
UAB run
even
USF throw
USF QB #111USF protection #14
USF +26
USF run
USF backs #74
USF +44

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bradford
Ethan Green
vs
Elijah Hall
LT · USF
EDGE · UAB
97.0
57.7
USF +39
when UAB runs
Bam McReynolds
vs
MarShon Oxley
RB · UAB
MLB · USF
57.9
73.7
USF +16
when USF runs
Alvon Isaac
vs
Muaaz Byard
RB · USF
MLB · UAB
60.0
64.0
UAB +4
when UAB throws
AJ Johnson
vs
Tavin Ward
X · UAB
CB1 · USF
49.4
70.7
USF +21
off the edge· hunting Burton
Calib Perez
vs
Jahari Grant
LT · UAB
EDGE · USF
50.0
65.2
USF +15
when USF throws
Mudia Reuben
vs
Guylijah Theodule
X · USF
CB1 · UAB
56.0
56.5
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UAB
LBMuaaz Byard
64.0227/878
QBRyder Burton
58.276/308
RBBam McReynolds
57.9131/514
DBGuylijah Theodule
56.5577/1427
DBKris Wokomah
56.1590/1427
DBJeremiah Jordan
53.8658/1427
South Florida
LBMarShon Oxley
73.7114/878
STavin Ward
70.7218/1427
LBShamar Meikle
67.0191/878
CBJair Murphy
65.9337/1427
TEEvan Dangler
60.651/287
RBAlvon Isaac
60.0109/514

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UAB
opponent
South Florida
away-12.9
Memphis#63
+1.4home
away-4.0
Temple#113
+10.3home
home-10.9
UTSA#62
-6.6away
home-5.9
East Carolina#77
-1.7away

Projected margin

80% between -6 and 29
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSF +11.795% interval: -12.2 to 35.680% interval: -5.6 to 29.1-6+29UAB wins 21%USF wins 79%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USF 39–25 UABUSF 35–49 UAB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSF 39–46 UAB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSF 42–42 UAB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSF 46–39 UAB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSF 49–35 UAB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSF 53–32 UAB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSF 56–28 UAB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSF 60–25 UAB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSF 63–21 UAB neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUSF 32–46 UAB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSF 35–42 UAB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSF 39–39 UAB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSF 42–35 UAB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSF 46–32 UAB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSF 49–28 UAB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSF 53–25 UAB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSF 56–21 UAB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSF 60–18 UAB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSF 28–42 UAB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSF 32–39 UAB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSF 35–35 UAB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSF 39–32 UAB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSF 42–28 UAB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSF 46–25 UAB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSF 49–21 UAB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSF 53–18 UAB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSF 56–14 UAB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSF 25–39 UAB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSF 28–35 UAB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSF 32–32 UAB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSF 35–28 UAB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSF 39–25 UAB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSF 42–21 UAB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSF 46–18 UAB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSF 49–14 UAB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSF 53–11 UAB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSF 21–35 UAB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSF 25–32 UAB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSF 28–28 UAB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSF 32–25 UAB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSF 35–21 UAB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSF 39–18 UAB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSF 42–14 UAB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSF 46–11 UAB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSF 49–7 UAB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSF 18–32 UAB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSF 21–28 UAB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSF 25–25 UAB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSF 28–21 UAB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSF 32–18 UAB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSF 35–14 UAB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSF 39–11 UAB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSF 42–7 UAB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSF 46–4 UAB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSF 14–28 UAB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSF 18–25 UAB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSF 21–21 UAB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSF 25–18 UAB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSF 28–14 UAB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSF 32–11 UAB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSF 35–7 UAB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSF 39–4 UAB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSF 42–0 UAB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes84777063564942totalUAB +14PKUSF +14USF +28USF +42margin →