CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
UAB 9.7%90.3% USF
Projected margin
USF by 20.2
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
USF 2 to USF 39
Win probability
USF 90.3%

Current team profiles

UAB
South Florida

When UAB has the ball

Passing

USF defense
Higher-ranked profile
UAB offense
#130
USF defense
#75
EPA comparison
-0.06
#130
0.16
#75
Pass EPA

Rushing

USF defense
Higher-ranked profile
UAB offense
#79
USF defense
#37
EPA comparison
0.09
#79
-0.03
#37
Rush EPA

Drive success

UAB offense
Higher-ranked profile
UAB offense
#81
USF defense
#100
Success rates
43%
#81
43%
#100
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#116
0.06
#67
EPA / play
1.14
#111
1.00
#5
Explosiveness
16%
#88
15%
#84
Havoc

When South Florida has the ball

Passing

UAB defense
Higher-ranked profile
UAB defense
#32
USF offense
#72
EPA comparison
0.03
#32
0.22
#72
Pass EPA

Rushing

USF offense
Higher-ranked profile
UAB defense
#102
USF offense
#45
EPA comparison
0.13
#102
0.16
#45
Rush EPA

Drive success

USF offense
Higher-ranked profile
UAB defense
#110
USF offense
#35
Success rates
45%
#110
48%
#35
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#70
0.18
#56
EPA / play
1.03
#6
1.12
#122
Explosiveness
15%
#84
11%
#22
Havoc

Current key players

UAB
QBRyder Burton
791 yds · 4 TD · 4 INT
74.3118/729
LBMarlin Dean
21 tkl · 8.0 TFL · 5.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
66.9
Coverage
59.9
Pressures
17
Pass-rush snaps
101
Missed tackles
8
Forced fumbles
2
78.7100/1796
DBGuylijah Theodule
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
69.3
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
4
Passer rating allowed
83.3
Missed tackles
0
78.391/2969
WRTy Mims
14 rec · 223 yds · 1 TD
78.073/2069
TESean Persson
1 rec · 12 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
67.5
Run blocking
73.1
Penalties
0
75.446/1017
RBBam McReynolds
260 yds · 4 TD · 4.8 YPC
74.1190/1044
Availability reports · 1
  • Antonio Ferguson · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ferguson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Pirates on Thursday, October 15th.

South Florida
QBMichael Van Buren Jr.
896 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
87.231/729
RBTray Kinkle
67 yds · 0 TD · 13.4 YPC
84.343/1044
LBZavier Hamilton
27 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.0
Coverage
66.1
Pressures
9
Pass-rush snaps
14
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
75.4171/1796
SIsrael Boyce
17 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.1
Coverage
72.7
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
4
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
75.1193/2969
WRKenny Odom
1 rec · 12 yds · 0 TD
74.8128/2069
LBChristian Smith
1 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.0
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
4
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
74.6196/1796
Availability reports · 3
  • Cameron Seldon · WRQues. · 2026-10-09

    Seldon is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against the Navy on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Arhmad Branch · WRQues. · 2026-10-09

    Branch is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against the Navy on Saturday, 17th Oct.

  • Jaden Alexis · WRQues. · 2026-10-09

    Alexis is battling with an undisclosed injury, and and it is unclear if he will play against the Navy on Saturday, 17th Oct.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UAB
USF
vs
Offense
74.3
#85 of 138
QB
87.2
#29 of 138
70.6
#116 of 138
RB
83.2
#19 of 138
71.2
#71 of 138
WR
72.3
#54 of 138
75.4
#37 of 138
TE
60.4
#116 of 138
63.0
#114 of 138
OL
68.3
#65 of 138
Defense
66.7
#131 of 138
DL
72.2
#81 of 138
68.9
#114 of 138
LB
74.6
#63 of 138
70.8
#86 of 138
DB
72.3
#67 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

UAB
opponent
South Florida
A-25.0
MEM#70
+3.2H
H-6.3
ECU#94
+5.9A
H-12.6
UTSA#73
-7.0A
A-9.2
TEM#108
-4.0H